Civilsdaily

Subject: Bilateral Relations

1. Major World Events
2. India’s Interests in neighbourhood
3. Effects of our Policies

  • The political crisis in South Korea

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    Why in the News?

    President Yoon Suk Yeol’s decision to declare martial law on December 3 caused a crisis, but the National Assembly rejected it. On December 14, he was impeached, leading to a long legal fight in South Korea’s Constitutional Court.

    What Led to President Yoon Suk Yeol’s Declaration of Martial Law?

    • Political Frustration: Facing increasing opposition and a loss of support from the National Assembly after the April 2024 elections, Yoon declared martial law on December 3, 2024, in a desperate attempt to maintain control amid growing dissent against his administration’s policies and allegations of corruption involving his wife.
    • Opposition Assertiveness: The opposition parties gained significant power in the National Assembly, securing 192 out of 300 seats. Their assertive stance against Yoon’s government exacerbated tensions, prompting him to take extreme measures to suppress dissent.
    • Failed Military Response: Despite sending military and police forces to various locations, including the National Assembly, their reluctance to act against peaceful protests highlighted the lack of support for Yoon’s decision. The National Assembly members voted overwhelmingly against martial law, leading to its withdrawal shortly after its declaration.

    How Has the Political Landscape Changed Following the Impeachment Proceedings?

    • Increased Polarization: The impeachment motion against Yoon, which passed with 204 votes in favour on December 14, 2024, reflects deepening political polarization in South Korea.
      • The ruling People Power Party (PPP) faced internal conflict over how to respond to the impeachment, indicating fractures within conservative ranks.
    • Opposition Power Dynamics: The opposition has gained momentum and confidence following the successful impeachment motion. This shift has allowed them to challenge Yoon’s policies more aggressively and seek accountability for alleged corruption within his administration.
    • Public Sentiment: Yoon’s popularity has plummeted due to his handling of both domestic and foreign policies, as well as controversies surrounding his wife. This decline has strengthened the opposition’s position and increased public demand for accountability.

    What are the potential implications of this crisis for South Korea’s democratic institutions?

    • Erosion of Democratic Norms: The use of martial law and aggressive tactics against political opponents raises concerns about the erosion of democratic norms in South Korea. Such actions could set a precedent for future administrations to bypass democratic processes in times of political strife.
    • Judicial Independence at Stake: The ongoing impeachment proceedings will be reviewed by the Constitutional Court, which may face pressure from public opinion and political factions. The outcome could influence perceptions of judicial independence and integrity within South Korea’s legal system.
    • Long-Term Stability Concerns: If political leaders continue to engage in vendetta politics and prioritize partisan interests over national unity, it could undermine public trust in democratic institutions. This instability may hinder effective governance and exacerbate societal divisions.

    What are the challenges in India that could prevent a South Korea-like scenario?

    • Diverse Federal Structure: India’s federal system and strong regional governments provide multiple centers of power, reducing the likelihood of concentrated national-level crises.
    • Robust Democratic Institutions: A vibrant judiciary, free press, and active civil society act as checks against potential abuses of power.
    • Electoral Accountability: Regular elections at various levels ensure political leaders remain answerable to the public, mitigating prolonged governance failures.
    • Cultural and Political Pluralism: India’s diversity in culture, language, and political ideologies discourages the kind of national consensus required for large-scale systemic crises like in South Korea.

    What should India do to prevent this type of situation? (Way forward)

    • Strengthen Democratic Institutions: India should prioritize the independence and resilience of democratic institutions, including the judiciary, Election Commission, and a free press, to ensure checks and balances against potential overreach by any government.
    • Promote Political Accountability and Transparency: Encourage bipartisan dialogue and accountability mechanisms to address corruption and governance issues, preventing political polarization and maintaining public trust in democratic processes.

    Mains question for practice:

    Q Analyze the factors that led to the declaration of martial law by President Yoon Suk Yeol in South Korea and discuss its implications for democratic institutions. What lessons can India draw from this crisis to strengthen its own democratic framework? (250 words) 15M

  • Places in News: Kailash Mansarovar

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    Places in News: Kailash Mansarovar

    Why in the News?

    • India and China have agreed to resume the Kailash-Mansarovar Yatra.
      • The pilgrimage has been suspended since 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and non-renewal of arrangements by China.

    India-China Talks on Border Management:

    • Disengagement and De-escalation: Agreed to continue implementing the October 2024 disengagement agreements for safe patrolling and grazing in certain areas.
    • Peace and Tranquility: Both sides agreed to maintain peace along the border and implement effective border management mechanisms.
    • Resolution of Boundary Dispute: Continued efforts toward a mutually acceptable solution to the boundary dispute.
    • Cross-Border Cooperation: Discussions included river cooperation, Nathula border trade, and other exchanges to strengthen bilateral relations.

    About Kailash Mansarovar:

    • Kailash Mansarovar is a sacred religious site located in the Tibetan Autonomous Region of China, near the borders of India, Nepal, and Tibet.
    • It consists of Mount Kailash, a peak considered to be the abode of Lord Shiva in Hinduism, and Mansarovar Lake, a high-altitude freshwater lake revered in Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism, and Bon traditions.
    • Geographical Location:
      • Mount Kailash stands at an elevation of 6,638 meters (21,778 feet), making it one of the most difficult and revered peaks to approach.
      • The Mansarovar Lake is located at an altitude of 4,556 meters (14,950 feet) and spans approximately 88 square kilometers.
      • The region lies in the Tibetan Plateau.

    Religious Significance:

    1. Hinduism:
      • Mount Kailash is considered the abode of Lord Shiva and his consort Parvati. Pilgrims believe that a pilgrimage to Kailash is essential for liberation and salvation (Moksha).
      • Mansarovar Lake is believed to have been created by Lord Brahma. Bathing in its holy waters is believed to cleanse sins and grant spiritual merit.
    2. Buddhism:
      • The region is sacred as it is believed to be the home of Buddha Demchok, who represents supreme bliss.
      • The lake is also linked to the Jambhala, the god of wealth in Tibetan Buddhism.
    3. Jainism:
      • Jain tradition holds that Lord Rishabhanatha, the first Tirthankara, attained Nirvana at the peak of Mount Kailash.
    4. Bon Religion:
      • For practitioners of Bon, an ancient religion indigenous to Tibet, Kailash is regarded as the sacred center of the universe.

    Route and Access:

    • India to Kailash Mansarovar: The pilgrimage is generally undertaken through the Lipulekh Pass, a high-altitude pass that connects Uttarakhand (India) with Tibet.
    • Pilgrims usually travel through Nepal, and the journey is conducted via Kailash Mansarovar Yatra (KMY) under the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).
    • Travel to Mount Kailash and Mansarovar Lake is restricted, and permits are required from the Chinese government.
    • Pilgrims from India are primarily facilitated through the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra organized by the Government of India and other authorized agencies.

    PYQ:

    [2016] Border management is a complex task due to difficult terrain and hostile relations with some countries. Elucidate the challenges and strategies for effective border management.

  • India and Sri Lanka need to go beyond the stated positions

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    Why in the News?

    Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s visit to India, his first international trip as per tradition, underscores the continuity in India-Sri Lanka bilateral relations.

    What are the current China-related challenges in India-Sri Lanka relations?

    • Geopolitical Tensions: Sri Lanka’s historical ties with China, particularly during the Mahinda Rajapaksa regime, have raised concerns in India regarding potential Chinese influence in the region.
      • China’s investment in Sri Lanka, particularly in the Hambantota Port, is closely tied to its broader String of Pearls strategy.
    • Economic Dependency: Sri Lanka’s reliance on Chinese investments has created a “debt trap” scenario, limiting its ability to align with Indian interests fully. The need for economic assistance from both nations complicates Sri Lanka’s foreign policy decisions, as it seeks support without alienating either side.
    • Balancing Act: Sri Lanka is attempting to navigate its relationships with India and China, which often puts it in a difficult position.
      • President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has expressed intentions to strengthen ties with India while maintaining relations with China, indicating a desire for a balanced approach. However, this balancing act is complicated by India’s concerns over Chinese influence and activities in the Indian Ocean.

    How can India and Sri Lanka enhance their economic and strategic partnerships?

    • Trade Agreements: There is a push for an upgraded India-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement (FTA) to facilitate bilateral trade and investment. This could include provisions for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) protection and expanded coverage of goods and services.
    • Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme: Implementing a regional PLI scheme could encourage Indian businesses to invest in Sri Lanka, particularly in sectors like renewable energy and electronics. This initiative would help build regional supply chains and reduce dependency on imports.
    • B2B Engagement: Strengthening business-to-business ties, especially between smaller enterprises, could enhance economic collaboration. This involves increasing participation in trade fairs and fostering connections between businesses in southern Indian states and Sri Lanka.

    What role does regional stability play? (Way forward)

    • Security Cooperation: Regional stability is crucial for both nations as they address external threats, particularly from China. Dissanayake’s assurance that Sri Lankan territory will not be used against Indian interests is vital for maintaining security cooperation and trust between the two countries.
    • Economic Recovery: As Sri Lanka recovers from its recent economic crisis, stable relations with India are essential for securing ongoing support from international financial institutions like the IMF. Enhanced cooperation can serve as a model for regional partnerships that promote stability and economic growth across South Asia.
    • Geopolitical Balance:  A collaborative approach can help mitigate risks associated with external influences and ensure that both nations can pursue their national interests without compromising sovereignty.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q What do you understand by ‘The String of Pearls’? How does it impact India? Briefly outline the steps taken by India to counter this. (UPSC IAS/2013)

  • In news: Nicaragua

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    In news: Nicaragua

    Why in the News?

    • Indian and Nicaragua has signed an umbrella agreement on Quick Impact Projects (QIPs).
      • The agreement aims at socio-economic development by implementing QIPs in Nicaragua, which will directly benefit local communities.

    About Nicaragua: Quick Facts

    • Nicaragua is located in Central America, bordered by Honduras to the north, Costa Rica to the south, the Pacific Ocean to the west, and the Caribbean Sea to the east.
    • The capital of Nicaragua is Managua; official language spoken in Nicaragua is Spanish; currency is the Nicaraguan córdoba (NIO).
    • Nicaragua operates as a unitary presidential republic.
    • The country’s economy is primarily based on agriculture, including coffee, bananas, and sugar, along with manufacturing and mining.

    Geographical Features:

    • Nicaragua’s topography is predominantly mountainous in the interior, with lowland plains along its Pacific and Caribbean coasts.
    • The country is home to over 20 volcanoes, with active ones such as Masaya and San Cristóbal.
    • The largest lake in Nicaragua is Lake Cocibolca, also known as Lake Nicaragua, which is one of the largest lakes in Latin America.
    • Nicaragua is also known for its significant rivers, including the San Juan River, which flows into the Caribbean Sea, and the Río Coco, the longest river in Central America.

    India- Nicaragua Relations:

    • Diplomatic relations were established in March 1983, and the Indian Embassy in Panama is concurrently accredited to Nicaragua.
    • Nicaragua’s embassy in India was closed in 1990, and currently, Nicaragua is represented in India through its Embassy in Tokyo.

    What are Quick Impact Projects (QIPs)?

    • QIPs are initiatives designed to deliver rapid and visible benefits to local communities, especially in areas with critical infrastructure and social development needs.
    • These projects are often implemented in a short time frame.
    • They are focused on addressing urgent and immediate issues that can have a significant positive impact on the community.
    • The term is commonly used by organizations like the UNHCR to describe such initiatives in crisis or displacement situations.
    • Examples of QIPs may include:
      • Building roads in remote areas to improve connectivity.
      • Establishing community centers that serve as hubs for local services.
      • Improving healthcare facilities with basic medical equipment and services.
      • Upgrading educational infrastructure by building schools or providing learning materials.

  • [13th December 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: Pakistan at the UNSC, the points of its compass

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    PYQ Relevance:

    Q) Discuss the impediments India is facing in its pursuit of a permanent seat in the UNSC. (UPSC CSE 2015)

    Mentor’s Comment: UPSC Mains have previously ‘ India is facing in its pursuit of a permanent seat in the UNSC’ (in 2015).

    Pakistan will join the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as a non-permanent member for a two-year term, starting January 1, 2025. This is Pakistan’s eighth term. Half of the 10 elected members for 2025-26 will be from the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Pakistan, Denmark, Greece, Panama, and Somalia will replace Ecuador, Japan, Malta, Mozambique, and Switzerland.

    Today’s editorial underscores the implication of Pakistan as a non-permanent member of the UNSC.

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    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    On January 1, 2025, Pakistan will begin its eighth term as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for two years.

    Significance of Pakistan’s Election as a Non-Permanent Member of the UNSC

    Pakistan’s election as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for the 2025-2026 term is significant for several reasons:

    • Representation of OIC: With Pakistan’s entry, half of the elected UNSC members will be from the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), highlighting the bloc’s influence within the Council and potentially shaping discussions on issues pertinent to member states, particularly those related to Islamic nations.
    • Diplomatic Leverage: Pakistan aims to use its position to strengthen ties with the Taliban in Afghanistan, leveraging support from allies like Russia and China for diplomatic rehabilitation efforts. This could reshape regional dynamics and influence international responses to Afghanistan.
    • Focus on Key Issues: Pakistan intends to prioritize peacekeeping and humanitarian issues, particularly in conflict zones like Gaza and Kashmir, framing its agenda around combating terrorism while attempting to shift scrutiny away from its own challenges related to terrorism.

    Pakistan’s Approach to Its Responsibilities in the UNSC

    Pakistan is expected to approach its responsibilities in the UNSC with a clear agenda:

    • Anti-India Initiatives: Historically, Pakistan has utilized its UNSC membership to advocate against India, particularly regarding Kashmir. It is likely to continue this trend by pushing for discussions on Kashmir and presenting claims against India’s actions in the region.
    • Islamophobia Narrative: Pakistan has previously attempted to introduce Islamophobia into discussions on terrorism, seeking to frame it as a justification for violence. This narrative may resurface during its term, especially with support from OIC countries.
    • Peacekeeping and Humanitarian Efforts: As a major contributor to UN peacekeeping missions, Pakistan will likely emphasize its role in peacekeeping operations and humanitarian assistance, attempting to position itself as a responsible global actor despite its contentious regional relationships.

    Expectations for India

    India should prepare for several outcomes as Pakistan assumes its role in the UNSC:

    • Increased Anti-India Rhetoric: India can expect Pakistan to leverage its UNSC platform for anti-India initiatives, including attempts to highlight alleged human rights violations in Jammu and Kashmir and presenting dossiers against India concerning terrorism.
    • Limited Multilateral Cooperation: Despite any bilateral engagements that may occur outside the Council, enhanced multilateral cooperation is unlikely. Historical patterns suggest that countries aligned with Pakistan may support anti-India drafts within the UNSC.
    • Focus on Counter-Terrorism Issues: India should remain vigilant as Pakistan seeks to frame itself as a victim of terrorism while attempting to label India similarly. This could manifest in proposals aimed at listing Indian nationals or organizations under UN sanctions.

    Way forward: 

    • Strengthen Diplomatic Engagements: India should enhance its diplomatic outreach to UNSC members, particularly the P5 countries, to counter any anti-India initiatives by Pakistan. Building stronger alliances with like-minded countries can help mitigate any biased resolutions or discussions on Kashmir and terrorism.
    • Focus on Counter-Narratives and Humanitarian Diplomacy: India should actively engage in countering Pakistan’s use of Islamophobia and terrorism-related narratives. By promoting peacekeeping contributions, humanitarian assistance, and multilateral cooperation

    https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/pakistan-at-the-unsc-the-points-of-its-compass/article68977903.ece

  • Under Trump 2.0, the world and the India outlook

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    Why in the News?

    After the recent Elections, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will likely hold a more favourable view of India compared to other nations.

    What are the potential impacts of Trump’s protectionist trade policies on India?

    • Increased Tariffs: Trump’s administration is likely to impose higher tariffs on Chinese imports, which could lead to a shift in trade dynamics.
      • India might benefit from this situation as companies look to relocate their manufacturing bases away from China, potentially increasing Indian exports.
    • Supply Chain Diversification: As U.S. firms seek to diversify their supply chains to reduce dependency on China, India could emerge as an attractive alternative for manufacturing and technology services, boosting economic ties between the two nations.
    • Pressure on Indian Goods: Conversely, if Trump’s policies lead to retaliatory measures from China or other countries, Indian goods may face increased scrutiny or tariffs in those markets, affecting India’s export competitiveness.

    How will Trump’s immigration policies affect the Indian workforce in the US?

    • H-1B Visa Restrictions: Trump’s administration may implement stricter immigration policies, particularly affecting H-1B visas commonly used by Indian IT professionals. This could limit the ability of Indian workers to enter or remain in the U.S. job market.
    • Talent Drain: Stricter immigration laws might lead to a talent drain, where highly skilled Indian professionals seek opportunities in other countries with more favorable immigration policies, impacting India’s tech sector.
    • Focus on Skilled Workers: On the flip side, if Trump prioritizes skilled labor that aligns with U.S. economic needs, there could be opportunities for Indian professionals who meet those criteria to gain entry into the U.S. market.

    What strategic opportunities and challenges will arise for India in the Indo-Pacific region?

    • Strengthened Alliances: Under Trump’s leadership, India is likely to see strengthened ties with the U.S. and other allies like Japan and Australia through frameworks such as the Quad, which aims to counterbalance China’s influence in the region.
    • Defence Cooperation: Enhanced defence cooperation could lead to increased military sales and joint exercises between India and the U.S., bolstering India’s defence capabilities against regional threats.
    • Balancing Relations with China: While India may benefit from a closer relationship with the U.S., it will need to navigate its complex relationship with China carefully. Increased tensions between the U.S. and China could put India in a difficult position regarding its economic and security interests.
    • Regional Stability Challenges: Trump’s assertive foreign policy might lead to greater instability in the Indo-Pacific region. India will need to manage its responses carefully to maintain peace while pursuing its strategic interests.

    Way forward: 

    • Leverage Strategic Partnerships: India should capitalize on strengthened ties with the U.S. and allies like Japan and Australia to enhance its defence, trade, and technology capabilities while maintaining a robust independent foreign policy to balance regional dynamics.
    • Promote Domestic Resilience: By advancing initiatives like “Make in India” and diversifying export markets, India can reduce reliance on vulnerable sectors impacted by U.S. protectionism and prepare to attract global supply chains shifting away from China.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) is transforming itself into a trade bloc from a military alliance, in present times Discuss. (UPSC IAS/2020)

  • [pib] India-Australia CCEA Stocktake

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    Why in the News?

    A stocktake visit for the India-Australia Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) recently concluded in New Delhi.

    Key Takeaways from the Meet

    • The discussions covered a wide range of critical aspects of the CECA, including:
      • Trade in goods and services
      • Mobility and agri-tech cooperation
      • Market access modalities that align with India’s food security objectives.
    • Both sides emphasized their shared commitment to ensuring that the CECA produces meaningful benefits and delivers a balanced outcome for both nations.
    • The discussions have opened up pathways for enhanced collaboration in areas such as agricultural innovation, market access, and supply chain resilience.

    About India-Australia CCEA Negotiations:

    • CECA is a comprehensive trade agreement between India and Australia.
      • More comprehensive than the earlier India-Australia Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA) , which is a limited trade agreement in force since December 2022.
    • Negotiations for CECA began in May 2011, suspended in 2016, and re-launched in 2021 after concluding the ECTA.
    • So far 10 rounds of negotiations have taken place.

    Key Features of CECA:

    • Covers goods, services, digital trade, government procurement, and Rules of Origin/Product-Specific Rules Schedule.
    • New areas: competition policy, MSMEs, innovation, agri-tech, critical minerals, sports.

    India-AU Trade Statistics:

    • 2023-24:
      • India’s imports from Australia fell by 15% to USD 16.15 billion.
      • India’s exports to Australia rose by 14.23% to USD 7.94 billion.

    Australia is India’s 13th largest export destination and 14th largest import source.

     

    PYQ:

    [2017] ‘Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA)’ is sometimes seen in the news in the context of negotiations held between India and:

    (a) European Union
    (b) Gulf Cooperation Council
    (c) Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
    (d) Shanghai Cooperation Organization

  • [9th December 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: A good beginning but China negotiations must continue

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    PYQ Relevance:
    Q) The West is fostering India as an alternative to reduce dependence on China’s supply chain and as a strategically to counter China’s political and economic dominance.” Explain this statement with examples. (UPSC CSE 2024)

    Mentor’s Comment: UPSC Mains is recently focusing on growing Chinese dominance in West and Central Asia (2024) and the power play struggle between the USA and China (2022).

    China has been using its ‘slicing strategy’ of debt trap to evolve as a global power by countering the USA and its ‘String of Pearls’ theory to circle out Indian activities.

    Today’s editorial explores the implications of the China-Nepal-India trio, the ongoing negotiations, and the need for a sustained dialogue. This content can be used to represent Chinese dominance in regional geopolitics and the challenges arising due to it.

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    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    The recent agreements between Nepal and China mark a significant step in the regional geopolitics of South Asia, particularly under the framework of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

    • While the signing of these agreements is a positive development, India must continue negotiations to ensure effective implementation and address potential challenges due to Chinese dominance in the region.
    Recent Developments in Nepal-China Relations: 
    In December 2024, Nepal’s Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli concluded a four-day official visit to China, during which several key agreements were signed, including a framework cooperation agreement related to the BRI.


    Key Points of the Nepal-China Agreements:
    • Framework Cooperation Agreement: This agreement lays the groundwork for various infrastructure projects, including:
    – Tokha-Chhahare Tunnel;
    – Hilsa Simkot Road Project;
    – Kathmandu-Khandbari Road;
    – Kimathanka Bridge;
    – Cross-border railway project from Rasuwagadhi to Kathmandu;
    – Amargadhi City Hall.

    • Focus on Implementation: The Nepali government emphasized the importance of not just signing agreements but also effectively implementing them. Past experiences have shown that while many agreements were signed, tangible progress on the ground has been limited.
    • Investment Modalities: The negotiations included discussions on financing modalities, with a shift from strictly “grants” to more flexible terms such as “aid.”This change aims to facilitate broader investment opportunities from various sources, including private sectors and international financial institutions. 

    Challenges Ahead for Nepal-China Relationship:

    • Implementation Gaps: Historical precedents indicate that many signed agreements have not translated into actionable projects. There is a pressing need for both governments to focus on practical steps that will lead to real-world outcomes.
    • Project-Specific Negotiations: Future negotiations are expected to be project-specific, which may complicate the overarching framework if not managed effectively. Clear communication and defined objectives will be essential in these discussions.
    • Geopolitical Considerations: As Nepal navigates its relationships with neighboring countries like India and global powers such as the United States, balancing these interests while engaging with China will require careful diplomacy.

    What were the substantive statements in Parliament on India-China relations?

    • Troop Disengagement and Temporary Measures: The External Affairs Minister highlighted the successful disengagement of troops following China’s military buildup and India’s counter-deployment, mentioning that temporary and limited measures were implemented at certain friction points to prevent further clashes.
      • However, he noted that these measures could be revisited as needed, indicating that while disengagement is a priority, the situation remains fluid.
    • Ongoing De-escalation Efforts: The Minister reiterated India’s stance that maintaining peace in border areas is essential for developing bilateral relations, suggesting that current troop deployments indicate that normalcy has not yet been restored.
    • Cautious Optimism in Bilateral Relations: The Minister indicated that while there has been some improvement in India-China relations following recent developments between Nepal-China, significantly remains a challenge.
      • He cautioned against expecting a major reset in relations until the border situation stabilizes and structural issues are addressed, particularly regarding economic security concerns with China.

    What are the several key questions that remain unanswered?

    • Unclear Disengagement Terms: While disengagement is declared complete, India lacks clarity on its specifics.
      • Questions remain about access to traditional patrolling points in Depsang and Demchok, the concept of “coordinated patrolling,” and the implications of “temporary steps” that limit patrols and grazing rights for Indian troops.
    • Status Quo Concerns: The Minister stated that India will not accept unilateral changes to the status quo, yet China has altered it since April 2020.
    • Discussions with military officials suggest restricted access to traditional patrol points, highlighting a shift in how both countries view the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
    • India should prioritize restoring the previous status quo in patrolling and grazing activities.
    • Chinese Patrols in Arunachal Pradesh: Reports indicate that Chinese troops are attempting to patrol areas like the Yangtse, despite previous assertions that such demands were unreasonable. If no quid pro quo exists in this sector, it should be firmly denied.
    • Call for Restoration of Status Quo: The Army Chief emphasized returning to the status quo of April 2020, while the Ministry of External Affairs has shifted its language away from this goal. Accepting changed ground realities would play into China’s strategy of gradual territorial gains without provoking outright conflict.

    What strategies can both countries employ to bridge this political divide?

    • Diplomatic Engagement: Regular high-level meetings and dialogues, such as those initiated between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping, can help rebuild trust.
      • Both nations should prioritize discussions on strategic issues beyond border conflicts, including economic cooperation, climate change, and technology.
    • Cultural and Economic Exchanges: Resuming direct flights, easing visa restrictions for citizens and diplomats, and promoting cultural exchanges (like film screenings) can enhance people-to-people connections.
      • This approach can foster goodwill and mutual understanding, essential for improving bilateral relations.
    • Institutional Frameworks: Establishing mechanisms for coordinated patrolling and joint military exercises can help manage tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
      • Additionally, creating platforms for multilateral discussions involving other regional players can facilitate broader cooperation and address shared security concerns.

  • [6th December 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: A three-nation visit as a foray into summit diplomacy

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    PYQ Relevance:

    Q) “If the last few decades were of Asia’s growth story, the next few are expected to be of Africa’s.” In the light of this statement, examine India’s influence in Africa in recent years. (UPSC CSE 2021)

    Mentor’s Comment: UPSC Mains have focused on ‘India’s influence in Africa (2021), and anti-colonial struggles in West Africa were led by the new elite of Western-educated Africans (in 2016).

    The Prime Minister’s visit to Nigeria, Brazil, and Guyana from November 16-21, 2024, was carefully planned to achieve multiple goals. This trip showcased India’s efforts in diplomacy across Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean, focusing on important discussions about bilateral, regional, and global issues. While the main reason for the visit was to attend the G-20 summit in Brazil, dedicating time to Nigeria and Guyana added more value to this journey. The trip reflects India’s key foreign policy priorities.

    Today’s editorial highlights the what are the outcomes of the recent visits of the PM of India to Nigeria, Brazil and Guyana.

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    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    The recent visit to Nigeria, Brazil, and Guyana provides valuable insights into India’s prevailing foreign policy priorities.

    Outcomes of the recent visit of the Indian PM to Nigeria in West Africa

    • Significance of the Visit: This was the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to Nigeria in 17 years, underscoring the importance of strengthening bilateral ties. The visit was at the invitation of the Nigerian President, emphasizing a shared belief in democracy and pluralism.
    • Bilateral Cooperation: Discussions focused on enhancing cooperation in sectors such as trade, investment, education, energy, health, and culture.
      • New areas for collaboration included agriculture, urban transportation, renewable energy, and digital transformation.
    • Recognition and Awards: The Nigerian government conferred a top national award on the Indian leader for contributions to bilateral relations, signalling a strong appreciation for India’s expanding influence in Africa.
    • Counter-Terrorism Cooperation: Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to combating terrorism and extremism together. However, only three memoranda of understanding (MoUs) were signed, likely due to bureaucratic delays.

    Recently visit of PM to Brazil for the G20 summit:

    • Summit Overview: Hosted in Rio de Janeiro on November 18-19, the G-20 Summit aimed to incorporate perspectives of the Global South into its decision-making processes. Key priorities included social inclusion, sustainable development, and reforming global governance institutions.
    • Outcomes: The summit led to the launch of the Global Alliance against Hunger and Poverty and the adoption of a roadmap for more effective multilateral development banks. However, progress on climate finance remained limited.
    • Bilateral Engagements: The Indian delegation engaged with several world leaders during the summit, including discussions with U.S. and European leaders, as well as a meeting with the Chinese Foreign Minister to advance bilateral relations.

    Last visit of PM to Guyana: The Wrap-Up

    • Historical Significance: The visit to Guyana marked the first by an Indian Prime Minister since 1968, underscoring India’s commitment to strengthening ties with Caribbean nations, particularly given that 40% of Guyana’s population is of Indian origin.
    • Cooperation Agreements: Ten MoUs were signed across various sectors, including energy, defence, urban development, digital collaboration, education, and food security, reflecting a robust bilateral cooperation program.
    • India-CARICOM Summit: During the visit, the Indian leader co-chaired the second India-CARICOM Summit in Georgetown, proposing seven pillars for enhanced cooperation that align with regional priorities.

    Importance of Carrabian for India

    • Strategic Trade Gateway: The Caribbean serves as a crucial gateway to North and South American markets, making it an important trade partner for India.
      • Strengthening ties with CARICOM nations can facilitate access to these markets, enhancing India’s economic outreach and trade opportunities in the region.
    • Energy Security and Resource Collaboration: The Caribbean, particularly nations like Guyana, is rich in hydrocarbons and other natural resources.
      • India’s engagement in the region aims to diversify its energy sources and reduce dependence on traditional suppliers.  
    • Cultural and Historical Ties: The Caribbean has a significant Indian diaspora, providing a strong foundation for cultural exchange and bilateral relations.  

    Way forward: 

    • Strengthen Regional Partnerships: Build on existing MoUs by establishing follow-up mechanisms to ensure timely implementation of agreements across sectors like energy, education, and digital transformation. Enhance India’s role in regional forums like CARICOM and AU to solidify partnerships.
    • Leverage Cultural and Economic Ties: Utilize India’s cultural connections, especially in Guyana and Nigeria, to foster people-to-people links while expanding trade and investment in renewable energy, agriculture, and technology to deepen economic cooperation.

    https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/a-three-nation-visit-as-a-foray-into-summit-diplomacy/article68951760.ece

  • India’s strategic focus on West Africa

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    Why in the News?

    Despite China’s increasing involvement in financing and infrastructure development, India continues to hold a significant position as one of Nigeria’s key partners in West Africa.

    What are the strategic objectives of India in West Africa?

    • Strengthening Bilateral Relations: India aims to enhance its strategic partnership with Nigeria, which is pivotal as Nigeria is both the largest economy and democracy in Africa. This partnership is expected to extend beyond Nigeria, influencing broader regional dynamics in West Africa.
    • Focus on Security Cooperation: Given the challenges of terrorism, piracy, and drug trafficking in Nigeria, India seeks to bolster security cooperation. This includes defence collaboration and joint efforts in counterterrorism operations against groups like Boko Haram.
    • Development Partnerships: India positions itself as a development partner by providing concessional loans and capacity-building programs, demonstrating a commitment to supporting Nigeria’s socio-economic growth.
    • Promotion of Global South Aspirations: Both India and Nigeria share common goals as leaders of the Global South, aiming to amplify their voices in international forums like the UN Security Council.

    How does India plan to enhance its economic ties with West African countries?

    • Diversifying Trade Relations: India plans to revitalize trade with Nigeria, which has seen a decline recently. Efforts include negotiating trade agreements such as the Economic Cooperation Agreement (ECA) and the Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) to facilitate investment and trade.
    • Sectoral Collaboration: The focus areas for economic collaboration include defence, energy, technology, health, and education. India’s PM discussions with the President of Nigeria emphasized leveraging India’s expertise in these sectors to foster mutual growth.
    • Infrastructure Development: India aims to support infrastructure development through concessional loans and technical assistance, building on existing projects that have benefited from Indian investment.
    • Cultural and People-to-People Exchanges: Enhancing cultural ties and promoting exchanges between citizens are also part of India’s strategy to strengthen bilateral relations, fostering goodwill and mutual understanding.

    What challenges does India face in its engagement with West Africa?

    • Geopolitical Competition: India’s engagement is challenged by China’s significant presence in Nigeria, where Chinese companies dominate various sectors including infrastructure and telecommunications. This competition complicates India’s efforts to establish itself as a key partner.
    • Economic Fluctuations: The decline in trade between India and Nigeria from $14.95 billion in 2021-22 to $7.89 billion in 2023-24 highlights vulnerabilities due to shifting global oil markets and increasing imports from other countries like Russia.
    • Political Instability: The political landscape in Nigeria can be unpredictable, posing risks for long-term investments and cooperation initiatives that require stability for successful implementation.
    • Capacity Constraints: While India offers developmental assistance, the effectiveness of these initiatives can be hindered by local capacity constraints in Nigeria, necessitating a tailored approach that considers local needs and capabilities.

    Way forward: 

    • Deepen Strategic Collaboration: Strengthen defence and security partnerships, diversify trade, and enhance collaboration in sectors like energy, technology, and health to counter China’s growing influence and foster mutual growth.
    • Focus on Regional Capacity Building: Expand developmental assistance with tailored initiatives addressing local needs, while supporting Nigeria’s stability through diplomatic engagement and joint Global South aspirations in international forums.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q Increasing interest of India in Africa has its pros and cons. Critically Examine. (UPSC IAS/2015)

  • A bilateral investment treaty with a ‘bit’ of change

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    Why in the News?

    The bilateral investment treaty (BIT) between India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), signed earlier this year, has recently been made public. This new treaty will replace the 2014 India-UAE investment agreement and holds significant importance.

    What is the Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) for investors?

    • The Model BIT is a framework established by India to guide negotiations for bilateral investment treaties, aiming to protect foreign investments while balancing the state’s regulatory rights.
    • It emphasizes clear definitions, local remedies, and limits on investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) claims.

    Background of  2024 BIT: 

    • The 2014 India-UAE investment treaty, formally known as the Bilateral Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (BIPPA), was established to enhance economic cooperation and protect investments between India and the United Arab Emirates.
    • This treaty aimed to create a stable and predictable investment climate for investors from both countries, facilitating foreign direct investment (FDI) flows.
    • The 2014 BIPPA was replaced by a new Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) signed in February 2024, which came into effect in August 2024.
    • This new BIT introduces several changes aimed at improving investment protection and reducing arbitral discretion while maintaining India’s regulatory sovereignty.

    What are the implications of India’s revised Model BIT for foreign investors?

    • Enhanced Investor Protection: The new BIT aims to provide greater protection for foreign investments while balancing the state’s right to regulate. This is expected to boost investor confidence by assuring minimum standards of treatment and non-discrimination.
    • Quicker Access to ISDS: The reduction of the local remedies exhaustion period from five years to three years allows investors to access international arbitration more quickly if disputes arise, potentially making India a more attractive destination for foreign investments.
    • Clearer Definitions and Reduced Discretion: By refining the definition of what constitutes an investment and removing subjective criteria related to the significance of investments for host state development, the BIT reduces arbitral discretion, which can lead to more predictable outcomes in dispute resolution.

    How does the India-UAE BIT depart from the Model BIT?

    • Exhaustion of Local Remedies: As noted, the India-UAE BIT lowers the exhaustion period from five years to three years, reflecting India’s responsiveness to concerns about lengthy legal processes in its judicial system.
    • Removal of Development Significance Criterion: The BIT omits the requirement that investments must significantly contribute to the host state’s development—a criterion present in the Model BIT. This change simplifies the definition of what constitutes an investment eligible for protection, reducing subjective interpretations by ISDS tribunals.
    • No Reference to Customary International Law: Unlike the Model BIT, which links treaty violations to customary international law (CIL), Article 4 of the India-UAE BIT does not reference CIL, thereby limiting arbitral discretion and providing clearer grounds for evaluating state actions against investments.
    • Prohibition on Third-Party Funding: The new treaty explicitly disallows third-party funding in ISDS proceedings, which may impact investors’ ability to finance their claims against states without personal financial risk.

    What are the positives and future opportunities for India-UAE BIT relations?

    • Strengthened Economic Cooperation: The BIT is expected to enhance bilateral economic ties by providing a stable legal framework that encourages investment flows between India and the UAE, both of which have significant stakes in each other’s economies.
    • Increased FDI Inflows: With UAE being a key source of foreign direct investment (FDI) for India, estimated at around $19 billion, the new treaty is anticipated to stimulate further investments, benefiting various sectors in both countries.
    • Alignment with Broader Economic Agreements: The BIT complements other agreements such as the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), reinforcing a comprehensive framework for economic collaboration beyond just investment protection.
    • Potential Influence on Future Treaties: India’s approach in negotiating this BIT may serve as a model for future treaties with other countries, reflecting a more flexible stance that could attract additional foreign investments while still safeguarding national interests.

    Conclusion: The India-UAE BIT offers stronger investment protection, quicker dispute resolution, and clearer definitions, fostering bilateral economic ties. This new agreement balances investor rights and state regulation, encourages increased FDI, strengthens economic cooperation, and could influence future treaties for enhanced global investment.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q How will the I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE and USA) grouping transform India’s position in global politics? (UPSC IAS/2022)

  • [21st November 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: An overturning of Sri Lanka’s old political order

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    PYQ Relevance:

    Q) ‘India is an age-old friend of Sri Lanka.’ Discuss India’s role in the recent crisis in Sri Lanka in the light of the preceding statement. (UPSC CSE 2022)

    Mentor’s Comment:  UPSC Mains have always focused on Regional Geopolitics (2019), Bilateral Ties (2022) and Neighbourhood  Policy (2013).

    Political shifts in the Asian continent can be characterized by several distinct phases, reflecting the diverse historical, social, and economic contexts of various countries. Recent years have seen significant protests and movements demanding political change (e.g., Hong Kong protests, Myanmar coup), reflecting a desire for democratic governance and human rights.

    Today’s editorial focuses on the recent elections in Sri Lanka that illustrate a significant departure from traditional political dynamics, characterized by the decline of elite control and the rise of reformist movements.

    This content can be used for presenting ‘Bilateral ties’ between India-Srilanka and ‘Asian Geopolitics’.

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    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    The Sri Lankan Presidential election held in September 2024, marked the historic shift in Asian democracy.

    What led to the significant political shift in Sri Lanka?

    • Economic Crisis: The country faced its worst economic crisis, leading to high inflation, shortages of essentials, and widespread public discontent.
    • Public Protests: The ‘Aragalaya’ Mass Movement protests against the government highlighted demands for accountability and change, reflecting the anger over economic mismanagement.
    • Rejection of Established Parties: Voters grew frustrated with traditional political elites, particularly the Rajapaksa family, and sought alternatives.
    • Rise of New Political Forces: National People’s Power (NPP) emerged as a popular choice by advocating for reform and anti-corruption measures, appealing to those wanting a break from the past. Dissanayake’s left-wing platform attracted voters looking for state intervention and social welfare solutions.

    How does this election reflect a departure from traditional political dynamics?

    • Rejection of Established Parties: The election resulted in a substantial loss for established parties, particularly the Rajapaksa-led SLPP and the SJB, signaling a clear rejection of the political elite that has dominated Sri Lankan politics for decades.
    • Shift in Voter Sentiment: Voters expressed a strong desire for change, driven by the economic crisis and widespread protests. This shift indicates a demand for leaders who prioritize the needs of ordinary citizens over elite interests.
    • Multi-Ethnic Appeal: The NPP made significant inroads in Tamil-majority areas, such as Jaffna, traditionally dominated by Tamil nationalist parties. This marks a notable shift towards a more inclusive political landscape.
    • Increased diversity in Representation: The new parliament features a record number of first-time MPs and women, reflecting a broader representation of society and moving away from the previously homogenous political class.
    • Ideological Shift and Leftist Policies: The NPP’s Marxist orientation represents a departure from previous neoliberal policies, appealing to voters seeking state intervention to address economic challenges.

    How India will be impacted due to the political shift in Sri Lanka?

    • Enhanced Bilateral Relations: The new government under Anura Kumara Dissanayake is likely to seek closer relations with India, promoting cooperation in trade and cultural exchanges.
    • Strategic Considerations: Sri Lanka may aim for a balanced relationship with both India and China, potentially renegotiating Chinese deals to align more with Indian interests this time.
    • Tamil Rights and Ethnic Issues: Addressing the concerns of the Tamil population will be crucial for maintaining good relations with India, given the historical ties between Tamils in both countries.
      • Dissanayake’s ability to manage internal challenges, such as ethnic tensions and economic issues, will be essential challenging factor for regional stability and bilateral relations.
    • Economic Dependency: Sri Lanka’s economic recovery will likely rely on Indian assistance, reinforcing India’s role as a key partner.
    Did you Know?

    India has traditionally been among Sri Lanka’s largest trade partners and Sri Lanka remains among the largest trade partners of India in the SAARC. India was Sri Lanka’s largest trading partner with an overall bilateral merchandise trade of US$ 5.45 billion in 2021.

    Way Forward: Sri Lanka has faced significant turmoil and deserves the opportunity to navigate its democratic recovery without external interference. Instead of focusing on exploiting Sri Lanka, major powers (USA, China, and India) should prioritize democratization within their own countries, which would ultimately benefit Sri Lanka’s progress.

  • Is imposing tariffs on Chinese imports a good idea?

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    Why in the News?

    After the election of the USA, Prez Donald Trump plans to impose tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese imports and 10% on EU imports to address the U.S.-China trade deficit and reduce unfair subsidies.

    What are the economic impacts of imposing tariffs on Chinese imports?

    The imposition of tariffs, particularly those proposed by the U.S. on Chinese imports, can have domestic and international economic consequences. 

    • Increased Domestic Prices: Tariffs raise the cost of imported goods, leading to higher prices for U.S. consumers. This can contribute to domestic inflation, especially if tariffs are applied broadly across consumer goods.
    • Impact on Trade Deficit: While tariffs may help reduce the trade deficit by discouraging imports, they can also lead to a rise in domestic production costs, which might not fully offset the increased prices for consumers.
    • Shifts in Consumption: Tariffs may shift consumer preferences away from imported goods towards domestically produced items. This could boost local industries and potentially increase domestic supply, helping to moderate inflation if production meets demand.
    • Global Trade Relations: The introduction of tariffs can provoke retaliatory measures from affected countries, leading to trade wars that can disrupt global supply chains and negatively impact international trade dynamics.

    How might China respond to increased tariffs?

    • Retaliatory Tariffs: Historically, China has imposed tariffs on U.S. goods in response to American tariffs. This could include targeting products from politically sensitive regions or sectors in the U.S. to maximize political impact.
    • Currency Manipulation: China may allow its currency, the yuan, to depreciate, making its exports cheaper and counteracting the effects of U.S. tariffs.
    • Increased Domestic Support: The Chinese government could implement fiscal stimulus measures to bolster domestic industries affected by U.S. tariffs, including subsidies for exporters and incentives for local production.
    • Diversification of Trade Partners: China might further diversify its trade by strengthening ties with other countries and participating in regional trade agreements that exclude the U.S., reducing its reliance on American markets.

    Do tariffs achieve their intended goals?

    • Trade Balance Improvement: While tariffs are designed to improve the trade balance by reducing imports, their success is contingent upon consumer behaviour and whether domestic producers can meet demand without significant price increases.
    • Political Ramifications: Retaliatory actions from China can undermine the intended benefits of tariffs, leading to a cycle of escalation that may harm both economies. The political fallout from these actions can also influence U.S. domestic politics, particularly if key industries are adversely affected.
    • Long-Term Economic Impact: The long-term economic impact may be limited if countries like China successfully adapt through measures such as currency adjustments or finding alternative markets for their goods.

    How can India benefit from it? 

    • Market Diversification: India can capture U.S. market share by exporting goods as American buyers seek alternatives to Chinese imports.
    • Supply Chain Shift: India can attract companies relocating production from China, leveraging its manufacturing policies and workforce.
    • Boost in FDI: Heightened U.S.-China tensions may increase Foreign Direct Investment in India as firms diversify investment destinations.

    Way forward: 

    • Strengthen Manufacturing and Exports: Enhance domestic production capabilities through schemes like PLI and focus on exporting goods demanded by the U.S., such as electronics, textiles, and pharmaceuticals.
    • Attract Global Investments: Improve ease of doing business, offer tax incentives, and promote India as a reliable alternative to China for global supply chains and FDI inflows.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q The USA is facing an existential threat in the form of China, that is much more challenging than the erstwhile Soviet Union.” Explain. (UPSC IAS/2021)

  • A thousand days of Ukrainian resilience

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    Why in the News?

    Exactly 1,000 days ago, world history took a dramatic turn when Russia initiated a full-scale military invasion with the goal of eradicating Ukrainian statehood, culture, and nationhood.

    ukraine

    How has Ukraine demonstrated resilience against Russian aggression?

    Ukraine has demonstrated remarkable resilience against Russian aggression since the full-scale invasion began on February 24, 2022. Key factors contributing to this resilience include:

    • National Unity: The unification of the Ukrainian people under President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been crucial. This collective spirit has galvanized both military and civilian efforts to resist Russian advances, leading to significant victories such as the defense of Kyiv and the liberation of the Kharkiv and Kherson regions.
    • Military Strength: Throughout the conflict, the Ukrainian armed forces have transformed into one of the strongest military forces globally. Their ability to repel invaders and conduct successful counteroffensives has been widely recognized and admired internationally.
    • International Support: Ukraine has received substantial military, financial, and humanitarian aid from allies worldwide. This support has been instrumental in sustaining its defense efforts and rebuilding initiatives.
    • Cultural and Moral Resolve: The war has fostered a strong sense of identity among Ukrainians, who view their struggle as not only for survival but also for European values and democracy. This moral clarity strengthens their resolve against oppression.

    What are the human and economic costs of the conflict for the whole world?

    • Human Costs: Thousands of civilians, including 600 children, have died. Over eight million people have left Ukraine, and 3.6 million are still displaced. Russia has taken more than 20,000 children, many of whom are still missing or in captivity.
    • Economic Costs: Ukraine has lost over $400 billion, and it will need $500 billion to rebuild and $35 billion to clear landmines. The war has affected global supply chains and caused inflation worldwide.

    How can Ukraine in seeking peace and rebuilding?

    • Diplomatic Efforts: Ukraine continues to engage in diplomatic initiatives aimed at securing international support for its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
      • President Zelenskyy emphasizes that neutrality is not an option countries must choose sides in this conflict.
    • Reconstruction Plans: As rebuilding begins, Ukraine aims to restore its infrastructure while implementing reforms that demonstrate resilience and commitment to democratic values. This effort is supported by international partners who provide financial assistance1.
    • Cultural Restoration: Protecting cultural heritage is a priority, with initiatives underway to restore damaged institutions and memorialize those lost during the conflict. This cultural revival is integral to national identity and unity moving forward.

    What opportunity does India have from this conflict? (Way forward)

    • Strengthening Diplomatic Influence: India can play a key role in diplomatic efforts by supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty and promoting peace talks, which enhances its global standing as a peacebuilder.
    • Economic and Trade Opportunities: As Ukraine seeks reconstruction, India can explore investment and trade opportunities in rebuilding efforts, especially in sectors like infrastructure, agriculture, and technology.
    • Cultural and Educational Collaboration: India can collaborate with Ukraine in preserving cultural heritage and restoring educational institutions, fostering cultural exchanges and strengthening bilateral ties.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q What is the significance of Indo-US defence deals over Indo-Russian defence deals? Discuss with reference to stability in the Indo-Pacific region. (UPSC IAS/2020)

  • [pib] Italy-India Joint Strategic Action Plan (2025-2029)

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    Why in the News?

    India and Italy signed an ambitious 5-year ‘joint strategic action plan 2025-2029’ that would include cooperation in space sector, critical technology, research, co-production of military equipment and widening the ambit of economic cooperation.

    Key Focus Areas of the Joint Strategic Action Plan:

    Details
    Political Dialogue • Regular high-level meetings and reciprocal visits.
    • Annual bilateral consultations between foreign ministries to discuss mutual interests.
    Economic Cooperation • Boosting trade, market access, and investments in sectors like transportation, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and green technologies.
    • Promoting industrial partnerships and mutual investments.
    Connectivity • Collaborating on sustainable transport initiatives.
    • Enhancing maritime and land infrastructure, participating in the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC).
    Science, Technology, IT, Innovation • Cooperation in emerging technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI), telecommunications, and digital services.
    • Innovation, research collaborations, and exchange programs for scientific growth.
    Space Sector • Collaboration between the Italian Space Agency (ASI) and the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) in Earth observation and lunar science.
    • Facilitating mutual commercial space collaborations.
    Energy Transition • Technology summits in renewable energy.
    • Cooperation in green hydrogen, biofuels, and energy efficiency.
    • Collaboration in global energy alliances like the International Solar Alliance (ISA) and Global Biofuels Alliance.
    Defence Cooperation • Joint defence consultations and staff talks.
    • Co-development of defence platforms and equipment.
    • Negotiating a Defence Industrial Roadmap.
    Security Cooperation • Capacity-building in cybersecurity and counter-terrorism.
    • Regular exchanges and sector-specific talks in multilateral forums.

    Significance of the Plan:

    • Time-Bound Initiatives: It outlines specific, time-bound initiatives to ensure measurable progress and accountability.
    • Mutual Growth: By focusing on co-development and co-production, the plan aims to leverage the strengths of both nations for mutual economic and technological advancement.
    • Strategic Alignment: The collaboration in areas like defence, energy transition, and space signifies a strategic alignment of interests, enhancing regional and global stability.
    • Cultural and People-to-People Ties: Emphasizing cultural exchanges and academic collaborations strengthens the social fabric and mutual understanding between the two countries.

    PYQ:

    [2016] With reference to the ‘Trans-Pacific Partnership’, consider the following statements:

    1. It is an agreement among all the Pacific Rim countries except China and Russia.

    2. It is a strategic alliance for the purpose of maritime security only.

    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

    (a) 1 only

    (b) 2 only

    (c) Both 1 and 2

    (d) Neither 1 nor 2

  • Leverage similarity, complementarity in Nigeria

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    Why in the News?

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa and its second-largest economy.

    Historical Background of Bilateral Relations between India and Nigeria

    • Long-standing Ties: India and Nigeria have maintained a bilateral relationship for over six decades, marked by shared values of democracy, pluralism, and economic cooperation. This partnership has evolved significantly since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1960.
    • First Direct Contact: Historical ties trace back to around 1500 AD with the arrival of Baba Ghor, a gem merchant from Kano, who settled in Gujarat, symbolizing early trade connections between the two regions.
    • Strategic Partnership: The formalization of their strategic partnership began in 2007, focusing on economic, energy, and defense collaboration. Since then, both countries have engaged in multiple dialogues to strengthen their ties.
    • Cultural Exchange: Indian influence in Nigeria is notable through education and healthcare, with many Nigerians studying in India and receiving medical treatment there. Indian cultural products like Bollywood films are also popular among Nigerians

    The Role of Soft Power in India-Nigeria Relations

    • Cultural Diplomacy: India’s soft power is evident through cultural exchanges, educational scholarships, and training programs that foster goodwill and strengthen people-to-people connections.
    • Healthcare Collaboration: India’s reputation as a destination for medical treatment enhances its soft power, with many Nigerians seeking healthcare services in Indian hospitals.
    • Capacity Building: Initiatives like the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) program provide training to Nigerian professionals, contributing to human capital development and fostering long-term relationships.
    • Shared Values: Both countries share common challenges such as governance issues and socio-economic development needs, which can be addressed collaboratively through dialogue and mutual support.

    Importance of Nigeria for India: 

    • Major Trading Partner: Nigeria is India’s second-largest trading partner in Africa, with bilateral trade valued at approximately $7.89 billion in 2023-24. This trade encompasses vital sectors such as crude oil, natural gas, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy.
    • Investment Opportunities: Over 200 Indian companies have invested around $27 billion in Nigeria across various sectors, including infrastructure, manufacturing, and consumer goods.
    • People-to-People Ties: There is a significant Indian diaspora in Nigeria, comprising around 50,000 individuals who contribute to the local economy and foster cultural exchange. This community enhances bilateral relations through trade, education, and healthcare links.
    • Educational Collaboration: India has been a preferred destination for Nigerian students seeking higher education. Initiatives like the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) program provide scholarships and training opportunities for Nigerians.

    How India and Nigeria Can Enhance Their Economic Collaboration?

    • Strengthening Trade Agreements: Finalizing a comprehensive economic partnership agreement can facilitate smoother trade flows and address market access issues for both nations.
    • Local Currency Settlement: Implementing a Local Currency Settlement System can mitigate exchange rate risks and streamline transactions between the two countries.
    • Sectoral Cooperation: Focusing on key sectors such as hydrocarbons, pharmaceuticals, renewable energy, agriculture, and infrastructure can diversify economic exchanges and enhance mutual benefits.
    • Investment in Infrastructure: India can invest in Nigeria’s infrastructure development projects, leveraging its experience in various sectors to address Nigeria’s physical and social infrastructure deficits.
    • Utilizing the Indian Diaspora: Engaging the Indian diaspora in Nigeria as a bridge for business opportunities can enhance bilateral trade and investment flows.

    Way forward: 

    • Strengthen Economic and Trade Partnership: Finalize a comprehensive economic partnership agreement and implement a Local Currency Settlement System to boost trade, reduce exchange risks, and expand collaboration in high-potential sectors like hydrocarbons, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy.
    • Leverage Soft Power and People-to-People Connections: Enhance cultural diplomacy and skill development initiatives, expanding ITEC programs and engaging the Indian diaspora to deepen ties and foster mutual goodwill, creating a resilient foundation for bilateral relations.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q “If the last few decades were of Asia’s growth story, the next few are expected to be of Africa’s.” In the light of this statement, examine India’s influence in Africa in recent years. (UPSC IAS/2021)

  • What is the Student Direct Stream visa?

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    Why in the News?

    Canada has discontinued the Student Direct Stream (SDS), ending faster processing for students from specific countries, including India.

    What is the Student Direct Stream (SDS) Visa?

    • The SDS is a fast-track visa processing program introduced by Canada in 2018 to expedite study permits for students from certain countries, including India.
    • Under SDS, applicants typically experienced processing times of around 20 days.
    • This stream was designed to simplify and speed up the application process for eligible students by requiring proof of financial stability (such as a Guaranteed Investment Certificate) and specific educational documentation.
    • The SDS applied to students from 14 countries, including: India, China, Pakistan, Vietnam, Trinidad and Tobago, among others.
    • Since its launch, SDS has been popular among Indian students, with a high approval rate for study permits in recent years.

    Why was SDS discontinued?

    • Fair Access: Moving to a single, standardized process aims to provide equal opportunity for all applicants.
    • Strengthened Protection: Canada intends to address student vulnerability by improving safeguards in its regular process.

    The changes are part of Canada’s broader immigration reforms, which also update financial requirements and study permit caps.

    How does the discontinuation affect Indian Students?

    Indian students will face:

    • Longer Processing Times: Visa approvals may now take longer under the standard process.
    • Additional Financial Proof: More financial documentation will be required.
    • Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) Changes: New rules from November 1, 2024 may impact work options after graduation.

  • With Indonesia, India’s opportunity and Beijing’s eye

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    Why in the News?

    On October 20, Indonesia saw a big change in leadership. Nationalist Prabowo Subianto became president.

    What are the implications of Indonesia’s new leadership for India-Indonesia relations?

    • Increased Competition with China: Prabowo’s administration may lead to a more assertive Indonesian foreign policy that seeks to leverage its strategic position between China and India. However, the extent of this assertiveness will depend on how Indonesia navigates its growing economic reliance on China while maintaining its sovereignty.
    • Potential for Enhanced Cooperation: Despite the challenges posed by China’s influence, India has an opportunity to deepen its engagement with Indonesia. This could involve collaborative efforts in sectors such as defence, maritime security, and trade, particularly given Indonesia’s strategic location and resource-rich economy.

    How does Indonesia’s relationship with China impact its foreign policy choices?

    • Strategic Balance: Prabowo’s decision to make China his first visit signals Indonesia’s pragmatic balancing between major powers. Despite concerns about China’s assertiveness in the Natuna Sea, Indonesia engages China for its economic clout and investments, especially in sectors like infrastructure and technology.
    • Wariness Over Chinese Influence: Indonesia’s hesitance toward China’s extensive control over economic assets provides India an opportunity to position itself as a complementary partner that respects Indonesia’s sovereignty, especially given mutual interests in upholding maritime security in the Indo-Pacific.
    • US-Indonesian Relations: Prabowo’s tenuous ties with the U.S. due to historical human rights allegations might encourage him to seek alternative partnerships, where India can play a constructive role in regional stability.

    What opportunities exist for India to enhance its economic engagement with Indonesia?

    • Energy and Mineral Resources: Indonesia’s rich reserves of coal, palm oil, nickel, and tin offer significant opportunities for India to secure its mineral and energy requirements, which aligns with India’s growing manufacturing and EV industries.
    • Infrastructure and Maritime Cooperation: India’s existing partnerships in infrastructure, such as developing the Sabang port, can be expanded to reinforce connectivity and enhance trade routes between the Nicobar Islands and Indonesia.
    • Services Sector Collaboration: India’s strength in IT and financial services can support Indonesia in reducing business costs and improving economic efficiency, particularly as it seeks to modernize and diversify its economy.
    • Tourism and Cultural Exchange: Given Indonesia’s growing middle class and India’s appeal as a tourist destination, there is potential to expand tourism and cultural exchanges that celebrate shared heritage, including Hindu-Buddhist traditions.

    Way forward: 

    • Strengthen Strategic and Economic Partnerships: India should actively engage Indonesia in joint initiatives across defense, maritime security, and infrastructure, leveraging Indonesia’s strategic location and resources to build a resilient Indo-Pacific framework that counters China’s regional influence.
    • Deepen Cultural and Economic Ties: Expanding collaborations in sectors like IT, energy, and tourism, and celebrating shared heritage, will foster goodwill and position India as a trusted and complementary partner to Indonesia, reinforcing mutual growth and stability in the region.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q Indian Diaspora has an important role to play in South-East Asian countries’ economy and society. Appraise the role of Indian Diaspora in South- East Asia in this context. (UPSC IAS/2017)

  • [12th November 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: The LAC agreement, the détentes and the questions

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    PYQ Relevance:

    Q) China is using its economic relations and positive trade surplus as tools to develop potential military power status in Asia’, In light of this statement, discuss its impact on India as her neighbour. (UPSC CSE 2014)

    Q) The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is viewed as a cardinal subset of China’s larger ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative. Give a brief description of CPEC and enumerate the reasons why India has distanced itself from the same. (UPSC CSE 2019)

    Mentor’s Comment:   The India-China border conflict is a complex and longstanding issue primarily centred around the 3,488-kilometer (2,167-mile) Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Himalayan region. Tensions have escalated significantly in recent years, particularly in June 2020.

    Both countries have recently reached a significant bilateral agreement regarding patrolling along their disputed border, specifically the LAC, in the context of the tensions that arose from the 2020 Galwan Valley clash.

    Today’s editorial explores the pressing issues related to LAC between India and China’s recent agreement.

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    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    Two weeks after announcing military disengagement, a meeting between PM Modi and President Xi at the BRICS Summit led to positive gestures at the LAC, signalling renewed goodwill.

    Key Highlights of the Agreement:    

    • Resumption of Patrols: The agreement allows Indian and Chinese troops to resume patrolling along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in areas such as the Depsang Plains and Demchok, reverting to norms that existed before the 2020 tensions. This is expected to help reduce the likelihood of confrontations.  
    • Disengagement Process: The deal signifies that the disengagement process has been finalized, indicating a mutual understanding to pull back troops from certain friction points, which aims to stabilize the situation along the border.  
    • Monitoring Mechanism: Regular monitoring and monthly review meetings will be instituted to ensure compliance with the terms of the agreement, helping to maintain stability and prevent future clashes between both nations.  
    • Diplomatic Engagement: The timing of this agreement aligns with high-level diplomatic interactions, including potential meetings between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the BRICS summit, indicating a broader effort to normalize bilateral relations beyond military issues.

    No Clarity on this agreement: 

    • Unclear Agreement Details: India and China have not provided clear details on the new “patrolling arrangements” at the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
      • Reports suggest possible PLA access in areas like Yangtse (Arunachal Pradesh), yet no official clarity exists.
    • Pattern of Ambiguity: Since the start of tensions in 2020, the government has provided limited information. This was first seen when violent clashes occurred at Pangong Tso in 2020, which the government downplayed in terms of changes in troop levels.
    • Impact of Buffer Zones: Although disengagement has occurred at some points like Depsang and Demchok, the establishment of buffer zones may hinder a full return to pre-2020 conditions without dismantling these zones.

    What are the reasons behind China’s actions on the Indian border?

    • Territorial Ambitions (Xi’s 2014 Policy): China’s increased aggressiveness, possibly a result of President Xi Jinping’s 2014 policy to control “every inch of territory,” has been evident across multiple regions, including Taiwan, South China Sea, Doklam, and the Tibet-India border.
    • Check on India-U.S. Partnership: China may be signaling that India’s maritime partnership with the U.S. will not mitigate India’s 3,500 km continental border challenges with China.
    • Infrastructure Security Concerns: India’s border infrastructure improvements, like Daulat Beg Oldie and new border roads, have heightened China’s security concerns around Xinjiang and Tibet. China’s own construction in the region may have increased in response.
    • Timing Linked to J&K Reorganization (August 2019): China reacted strongly to India’s changes in Jammu & Kashmir, particularly regarding Ladakh, leading some to believe this may have influenced China’s aggressive LAC moves in 2020.

    Need for Government Transparency (Way Forward)

    • Call for Openness in Sensitive Border Decisions: For sustainable peace and transparency with citizens, the government should clarify its plans for the northern region, especially given the unexpected events at the LAC.
    • Lessons from LAC Events: The government should review the causes and responses to Chinese transgressions, which took the public and officials by surprise, and communicate lessons learned.
    • Engaging Citizens: As a democratic government, India is urged to move away from “shock and awe” surprise announcements and foster transparency about national security moves with profound impacts on its citizens.

    https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-nilgiris-as-a-shared-wilderness/article68820359.ece

  • [8th November 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: India, Pakistan and modifying the Indus Waters Treaty 

    Subjects: ,
    GS Papers: ,
    Distribution: ,
    PYQ Relevance:Q)

    Present an account of the Indus Water Treaty and examine its ecological, economic and political implications in the context of changing bilateral relations. (UPSC CSE 2016)

    Q) With reference to the Indus river system, of the following four rivers, three of them pour into one of them which join the Indus direct. Among the following, which one is such river that joins the Indus direct? ​(UPSC CSE 2021)

    a) Chenab
    ​b) Jhelum
    ​c) Ravi ​
    d) Sutlej

    Mentor’s Comment: The Indus Water Treaty was signed in 1960 after extensive negotiations facilitated by the World Bank. It has successfully governed water sharing between India and Pakistan for over six decades, surviving numerous conflicts between the two nations.

    The IWT has survived multiple conflicts between India and Pakistan, including three wars and ongoing military tensions. Pakistan has consistently raised objections to hydropower projects initiated by India, particularly the Kishanganga and Ratle river developments, claiming they violate the treaty’s provisions.

    However, recent tensions have prompted India to reconsider its obligations under this long-standing agreement. Today’s editorial discusses several critical aspects related to India’s recent formal notice to Pakistan regarding the treaty.

    _

    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    Indian Government has issued a formal notice to Pakistan requesting modifications to the Indus Water Treaty, citing “fundamental and unforeseen changes“.

    Overview of the IWT and Recent Developments:

    The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan, governs the allocation and management of water resources from the Indus River system.
    This treaty allows India unrestricted use of the eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi) while allocating the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) primarily to Pakistan.
    However, recent tensions have prompted India to formally request modifications to the treaty, raising significant geopolitical implications.

    What prompted India to seek modifications to the Indus Waters Treaty?

    • Demographic Changes: Increasing population pressures necessitate greater water resource management.
    • Environmental Issues: The need for sustainable practices and clean energy development to meet emission targets.
    • Security Concerns: The impact of persistent cross-border terrorism on water management and treaty implementation.
    • Disputes over Hydropower Projects: Tensions have arisen over India’s hydroelectric projects on rivers like Kishanganga and Ratle, which Pakistan claims violate the treaty. India believes these projects comply with the agreement.
    • Perceived Imbalance: India feels the treaty disproportionately favors Pakistan, which receives about 80% of the Indus river system’s water, while India manages only 20%. This perceived imbalance has led to calls for a fairer distribution of resources.

    How does the proposed modification process work under the treaty?

    India has issued a formal notice to Pakistan that requires a reassessment of the treaty’s obligations as follows:

    • According to Article XII (3), any modifications to the treaty must be made through a duly ratified treaty concluded between the two governments.
    • Once a formal notice is issued, Pakistan has a specified period (typically three months) to respond to the request for renegotiation. The outcome of this response will determine the next steps in the modification process.
    • If Pakistan agrees to negotiate, both countries will enter discussions aimed at revising the treaty. This process is expected to address various concerns raised by India, including demographic changes, environmental issues, and security threats.
    • If Pakistan does not accept India’s proposal for modification, India retains the option to call for the termination of the treaty, although this would likely escalate tensions further.
    The IWT also includes a graded Dispute Resolution Mechanism, which operates at three levels:

    Level 1: Initial discussions occur at the level of the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC), where both parties can clarify any questions regarding planned projects.
    Level 2: If differences remain unresolved, they escalate to involve a Neutral Expert, who provides technical advice.
    Level 3: Finally, if disputes persist, they can be taken to a Court of Arbitration for binding resolution.

    What implications could this modification have for India-Pakistan relations?

    • Diplomatic Strain and Increased Tensions: Pakistan may view India’s request as a threat to its water rights, leading to escalated tensions and potential conflicts over water resources.
      • The process of negotiating modifications could be challenging due to historical mistrust, making it hard for both countries to reach a consensus.
    • Water Scarcity Concerns: Modifying the treaty could either improve or worsen water security for both nations. Pakistan, which relies heavily on the Indus system, may feel particularly vulnerable, increasing the risk of conflict.
    • Geopolitical Ramifications: Changes to the treaty might destabilize the region, potentially leading to increased militarization or conflict, especially given both countries’ nuclear capabilities.
    • International Involvement: The World Bank and other international bodies may need to intervene if negotiations fail, complicating the situation and potentially drawing in other regional powers.

    Way Forward: India’s request for modifications to the Indus Waters Treaty signals a significant shift in its approach to water resource management with Pakistan. As both countries face mounting pressures from changing demographics, environmental challenges, and security concerns, the future of this treaty may hinge on their willingness to engage in constructive dialogue and negotiate terms that reflect current realities.

    https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/what-is-indus-waters-treaty-between-india-pakistan/article65075002.ece