Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: NFlES Scheme
Why in the News?
The Union Cabinet, chaired by PM Narendra Modi, approved the National Forensic Infrastructure Enhancement Scheme (NFIES).
Do you know?
- Central sector schemes: They are 100% funded by the Union government and implemented by the Central Government machinery. It covers subjects from Union List (central subjects).
- Centrally Sponsored Scheme (CSS): It has a certain percentage of the funding borne by the States and the implementation is by the State Governments.It covers subjects from Concurrent List (shared subjects).
- States have some flexibility to modify schemes to suit local needs within central guidelines.
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About National Forensic Infrastructure Enhancement Scheme (NFlES)
- The Central Sector Scheme NFIES aims to strengthen national forensic infrastructure, expand NFSU’s reach, and establish CFSLs to meet growing forensic demands.
- It aligns with India’s goals of enhancing forensic capabilities and securing robust criminal justice outcomes.
Key Components of NFlES:
- Campuses of NFSU: Establishing campuses of the National Forensic Sciences University (NFSU) across India.
- Central Forensic Science Laboratories (CFSLs): Setting up new CFSLs nationwide.
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- Delhi Campus Enhancement: Upgrading infrastructure at the Delhi Campus of NFSU.
- Financial outlay: Rs. 2254.43 crore for 2024-25 to 2028-29, funded by the Ministry of Home Affairs.
- Objectives:
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- Enhancing the criminal justice system with timely and scientific forensic examinations.
- Addressing the increased workload due to new criminal laws requiring forensic investigation for serious offences.
- Mitigating the shortage of trained forensic professionals in Forensic Science Laboratories (FSLs).
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Impact and Benefits
- Improved Efficiency: Ensuring high-quality forensic examinations for efficient criminal justice processes.
- Technology Integration: Leveraging advancements to handle evolving crime methods effectively.
- Capacity Building: Training more forensic professionals to reduce case backlogs and support a high conviction rate exceeding 90%.
PYQ:
[2017] ‘Recognition of Prior Learning Scheme’ is sometimes mentioned in the news with reference to:
(a) Certifying the skills acquired by construction workers through traditional channels.
(b) Enrolling the persons in Universities for distance learning programmes.
(c) Reserving some skilled jobs to rural and urban poor in some public sector undertakings.
(d) Certifying the skills acquired by trainees under the National Skill Development Programme. |
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Key locations mentioned in the news card
Mains level: NA
Why in the news?
The Central Asia region is in the spotlight since it is facing challenges with political instability, ethnic tensions, and the threat of extremism, especially after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.
About Central Asia
- Central Asia, often referred to as the heart of Asia, is a vast and diverse region located at the crossroads of Europe and Asia.
- It encompasses the area between the Caspian Sea in the west and China in the east, and from Russia in the north to Afghanistan and Iran in the south.
- Central Asia is comprised of five main countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
- This region has a rich history, serving as the historical crossroads of the Silk Road, which facilitated trade and cultural exchange between Europe and Asia for centuries.
Geographical Details:
- Tian Shan: This mountain range stretches across Central Asia, forming a natural border between Kyrgyzstan and China. It is renowned for its majestic peaks, including Pobeda Peak, the highest point in Kyrgyzstan.
- Pamir Mountains: Known as the “Roof of the World,” the Pamir Mountains are located in Tajikistan and extend into neighboring countries. They contain some of the world’s highest peaks, including Ismoil Somoni Peak (formerly known as Peak Communism) and Kongur Tagh.
- Alay Mountains: Situated in southern Kyrgyzstan, the Alay Mountains are a subrange of the Tian Shan. They are characterized by rugged terrain and deep valleys.
- Turkestan Range: This mountain range runs through southern Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, forming part of the border between the two countries.
- Amu Darya: Also known as the Oxus River, the Amu Darya is one of the major rivers in Central Asia. It originates in the Pamir Mountains and flows through Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan before emptying into the Aral Sea (though much of its water is diverted for irrigation).
- Syr Darya: Another important river in Central Asia, the Syr Darya, originates in the Tian Shan Mountains. It flows through Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, eventually joining the Amu Darya in the Aral Sea basin.
- Aral Sea: Once the fourth-largest lake in the world, the Aral Sea has shrunk dramatically due to diversion of its tributary rivers for irrigation purposes. Its decline has had severe ecological and economic consequences for the region.
- Issyk-Kul: Located in eastern Kyrgyzstan, Issyk-Kul is one of the largest alpine lakes in the world. It is surrounded by snow-capped mountains and is a popular tourist destination.
- Karakum Desert: Covering much of Turkmenistan, the Karakum Desert is characterized by vast expanses of sand dunes and sparse vegetation. It is home to the Darvaza Gas Crater, also known as the “Door to Hell.”
- Kyzylkum Desert: Situated primarily in Uzbekistan, with parts extending into Kazakhstan, the Kyzylkum Desert is known for its red sands and arid climate. It is sparsely populated, with nomadic herders and wildlife such as gazelles and wild boars.
- Oil and Gas: The Caspian Sea region, in particular, is known for its oil and gas deposits, with countries like Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan actively involved in their exploration and extraction. The discovery of large oil fields, such as the Tengiz Field in Kazakhstan and the Galkynysh Field in Turkmenistan, has attracted international investment and contributed to economic growth in the region.
- Uranium: Kazakhstan is one of the world’s leading producers of uranium, with significant deposits located in the south of the country. Other Central Asian countries, such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, also have uranium reserves, although they are less developed than those in Kazakhstan.
- Precious Metals: Kyrgyzstan has a long history of gold mining, with several large-scale mines operating in the country. Uzbekistan is also a significant producer of gold, with the Muruntau Gold Mine being one of the largest in the world.
- Copper, Aluminum, and Iron: These resources are primarily found in mountainous regions, such as the Tian Shan and Pamir Mountains. Countries like Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have large deposits of copper ore, which are mined for domestic use and export. Additionally, Kazakhstan is a major producer of aluminum, with significant reserves of bauxite, the primary source of aluminum.
- Central Asia experiences a continental climate, with hot summers and cold winters.
- However, the climate varies significantly depending on altitude and proximity to mountain ranges.
- In general, the region is characterized by low precipitation and high evaporation rates, leading to arid and semi-arid conditions in many areas.
- The mountains influence local climates, with cooler temperatures and higher precipitation levels in upland areas.
Major Disputed Areas:
|
Countries Involved |
Description |
| Bagys and Turkestanetz |
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan |
- Disputed settlements involved in border negotiations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
- Turkestanetz ultimately attributed to Uzbekistan, while Kazakhstan retained control over significant water reservoirs.
- Negotiations primarily occurred in the early 2000s.
- The area is characterized by flat plains and arid landscapes, typical of Central Asian geography.
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| Arnasy Dam |
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan |
- Part of the land negotiations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, particularly significant during the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s.
- The area surrounding the dam is marked by river valleys and semi-arid terrain, with the Arnasy River being a prominent feature.
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| Sokh and Shakhi-Mardan Enclaves |
Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan |
- Uzbek enclaves located in Kyrgyzstan, particularly contentious and mined by Uzbekistan as part of their border security measures.
- Tensions in this area have been ongoing since the collapse of the Soviet Union, with occasional flare-ups in violence.
- The region is characterized by mountainous terrain, including the Pamir-Alay and Turkestan mountain ranges.
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| Ferghana Valley |
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan |
- A fertile region shared by Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, known for its complex network of enclaves and high degree of inter-ethnic tensions.
- Disputes often arise over control of strategic points such as border crossings and access to water resources, leading to occasional clashes and violence.
- Tensions in the Ferghana Valley have persisted since the early 1990s.
- The valley is surrounded by the Tian Shan and Alay mountain ranges, with the Syr Darya river flowing through it.
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| Vorukh Enclave |
Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan |
- A Tajik enclave within Kyrgyzstan, part of the complex border issues in the Ferghana Valley.
- Tensions in this enclave date back to the Soviet era but have intensified since the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
- The enclave is nestled in the mountainous terrain of the Ferghana Valley, near the Zeravshan Range.
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| Chardara Reservoir and Lake Arnasai |
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan |
- Areas discussed in border negotiations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
- The negotiations occurred primarily in the late 1990s, with Kazakhstan securing a neck of land that provided a direct transport connection to the rest of the country.
- The region is characterized by flat plains and agricultural land surrounding the reservoir and lake.
- The Chardara Reservoir is fed by the Syr Darya river.
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| Osh City and Osh Volost |
Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan |
- Areas that were contentious during the national delimitation in the Soviet period, particularly in the 1920s.
- They were included in the Kirghiz Autonomous Oblast despite a high percentage of Uzbek residents who opposed this inclusion.
- The area is characterized by mountainous terrain, including the Fergana Range.
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| Isfara Valley |
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan |
- A narrow, densely populated valley straddling the border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, disputes in this region often stem from territorial claims, resource allocation, and control of strategic points such as border crossings and water sources.
- Tensions have been ongoing since the early 1990s.
- The valley is surrounded by mountain ranges, including the Pamir-Alay and Turkestan ranges, and is known for its agricultural productivity.
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| Batken Region |
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan |
- Located in southern Kyrgyzstan, bordered by Tajikistan to the south and Uzbekistan to the west, disputes in this region are primarily related to territorial claims, control of strategic areas, and occasional clashes between border communities.
- Tensions have been particularly notable since the mid-1990s.
- The region is characterized by rugged mountain terrain, including the Pamir-Alay and Turkestan ranges.
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| Karakalpakstan |
Uzbekistan |
- An autonomous republic within Uzbekistan, disputes in this region are mainly related to water scarcity, ecological degradation, and the socio-economic impact of the shrinking Aral Sea.
- Tensions over these issues have escalated since the mid-20th century.
- Karakalpakstan is characterized by flat, arid plains and is situated adjacent to the shrinking Aral Sea.
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| Caspian Sea |
Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan |
- The world’s largest inland body of water bordered by Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, disputes often revolve around issues such as maritime boundaries, resource exploration rights, and environmental conservation.
- Negotiations over the status of the Caspian Sea and its resources have been ongoing since the early 1990s.
- The Caspian Sea is characterized by its vast expanse of water and surrounding coastal regions.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: SCO and QUAD
Mains level: multilateralism
Context
India may give up its strategic balancing of China and West if the Ukraine war weakens Russia. Because for major defence supplies India is dependent on Russia.
What is the concept of multilateralism?
- Process of organizing relations between groups of three or more states. Beyond that basic quantitative aspect, multilateralism is generally considered to comprise certain qualitative elements or principles that shape the character of the arrangement or institution.
What is SCO?
- The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is a Eurasian political, economic and security organization.
- Global share: In terms of geographic scope and population, it is the world’s largest regional organization, covering approximately 60% of the area of Eurasia, 40% of the world population, and more than 30% of global GDP.
- Members: The SCO currently comprises eight Member States. They are- China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
- Headquarters: Beijing, China.
What is QUAD?
- The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD), commonly known as the Quad.
- It is a strategic security dialogue.
- Members: Australia, India, Japan, and the United States.
- Origin: The dialogue was initiated in 2007.
Which factors forced India to have more engagements with QUAD?
- The Chinese threat has been largely responsible in shaping New Delhi’s Indo Pacific Policy.
- The China’s Belt and Road initiative and the growing China’s presence in India’s neighborhood- as evident from China’s investment not only in Pakistan and Myanmar, but also in Nepal and Sri Lanka. Because of such activities India felt encircled.
- The very launch of the QUAD initiative was the reaction to China’s assertiveness in the Indo Pacific region.
- India agreed to upgrade the quad meeting at the ministerial level only after the gunmen attack of 2020.
How India is maintaining balance between the West and China-Russia Alliance?
- Plurilateralism: India continued to believe in plurilateralism, a doctrine elucidated by external affairs Minister S Jaishankar in his book ‘The Indian Way’.
- Member of both QUAD and SCO: Along with QUAD, India also took membership of SCO. It means India dealing with the USA and Japan on one side and Russia and China on the other.
- Simultaneously dealing with many powers: India is engaging with competing powers like the USA, China, the EU or Russia at the same time.
- Multipolar world: India stands in favor of a multipolar world where the plurality of power centers would allow her to play one pole against the other. In this context, New Delhi wants Russia to remain an important player.
What are India’s concerns regarding the West created world order?
- The stand on Multilateralism goes together with India’s reservations (not being completely satisfied) against the West’s past hegemony and the international orders that were established after 1945.
- MEA S Jaishankar emphasises that the West has imposed norms on the world that need to be dismantled. He says, “The key of western durability till now is the set of institutions and practices that it progressively but firmly established in the period of its dominance”.
- The world order and the institutions are created and supported by the West by narratives that serve the West well, while diminishing its competitors.
What are the steps taken by India to deal with the West created world order and institutions ?
- India’s engagement with the other regional organizations like BRICS, SCO, etc.
- Doctrine of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam: India’s foreign policy has been based on the philosophy of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam.
- UN Reforms: Efforts towards bringing reforms in the UNs.
- Shift from Non-Alignment to Multi-Alignment: Multi-alignment is the very essence of India’s foreign policy and the economic policy of India today. Promotion of multilateralism by engaging with many poles simultaneously.
- Various Multilateral initiatives: India has taken the lead in promoting various multilateral initiatives like International Solar Alliance, proposing CCIT for combating terrorism, Asia-Africa Growth corridor.
- Collaborating with Like-minded Countries: India could work closely with the Alliance for Multilateralism (an initiative launched by Germany and France) to shape both the alliance itself and the reform agenda at large.
Why is Russia important for India?
- Military supplies: India is heavily dependent on Russia for its military supplies with more than two-third of its weapons coming from Russia. For example: S-400 is the recent supply to India by Russia.
- Balancing China: Russia is important for India to balance China. More isolation of Russia may push Russia closer to China.
- To promote multilateralism: To maintain multilateral world order Russia is a major player or partner for India.
Conclusion
- A multilateral world order with power decentralized between all the regions and all the economic strata is critical for any sustainable model of peace and prosperity to be gained. The UN and similar bodies must recognize the need of the hour and must reform or else they will perish in yet another set of protectionism, distrust, and possible large-scale military conflicts like Russia- Ukraine.
Mains question
Q. What are the concerns of India regarding the present world order created by the West? How can India promote multilateralism by playing a balancing role between the QUAD and the SCO? What is the importance of Russia for India in the present global situation? Explain.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: non alignment movement
Mains level: foreign policy
Context
- Forthcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan is leading India to multi alignment.
Background
- India’s journey of foreign policy from being the founder of non-alignment to the multi-alignment. In his book The India Way, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar offers a critique of India’s traditional policy of “non-alignment”, where he distinguishes between the “optimistic non- alignment ” of the past, which he feels has failed, that must give way to more realistic “multiple engagements of the future”.
Shanghai Co-operation Organization (SCO)
- SCO is a Eurasian political, economic and security organization.
- It is the world’s largest regional organization,
- 40% of the world population
- More than 30% of global GDP.
- Members: 8-China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, India and Pakistan.
- Host- Uzbekistan,
- Uzbekistan will host a full house: 15 leaders including eight member states from four Central Asian States, China, India, Pakistan and Russia,
- The observer states: Belarus, Mongolia and Iran (which will become member this year) —
- Afghanistan is not invited
- Leaders of guest countries -Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Turkmenistan
What is non- alignment?
- It’s a policy, a brainchild of Nehru. Non-alignment movement emerged after second world war.
- Non-alignment means not having an alliance with any of superpower, either USSR or USA. Decolonized nations of Asia and Africa was largely a part of this group.
India’s policy of non-alignment
- At bandung conference in 1955 non-alignment movement started with India as one of the founding member.
- With policy of non-alignment India refused to gravitate towards USA or USSR.
- India was the leader of non-alignment.
What is India’s current policy of multi- alignment? Advantages and challenges.
- Since the start of his tenure from 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi have not attended any conference of non-alignment.
- External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar in his book, The Indian way have criticized the non-alignment.
- In the words of Former Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale India is no longer the non-align nation.
How it is a Multi alignment policy?
- India to truly multi aligned or all aligned by being a part of every major grouping.
- India is a part of BRICS and Prime Minister Modi is attending the SCO SUMMIT in Samarkand.
- On parallel to rival groups India is also the part of Quad and Indo pacific economic framework.
- India is buying the discounted Russian oil and reusing to buckle under pressure from west and USA.
- S-400 purchase is happening and India have dodged the bullet of sanctions from USA.
- India is choosing the bilateral Free trade agreement like with Australia and UAE and withdrew from groupings like RCEP and Most recently IPEF. This policy are is said to be in the economic interest of India.
Advantages of Multi alignment
- India no longer wants to repeat the mistake of missing out of P5 Security council (“Permanent membership in the Security Council was granted to five states based on their importance in the aftermath of World War II).
- If any group work against your interest it is better to be part of group rather than remain outside and do nothing
- With retreating USA and its collapsing hegemony world is moving towards multiple polar world order.
Disadvantages
- Major disadvantage of non-alignment is you no longer have influence over adverse policy of friendly country.
- For example. Russia sells S-400 to India but it also sold the same weapon to china.
- USA and India are strategically getting closer day by day but USA recently approved the sale of $450 million F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan.
Conclusion
- Multi alignment will serve India its best national interest.
- So far India has managed the rival parties at world stage to secure its foreign policy objectives but with Russian aggression and Chinese assertion and divided world will pose a significant challenge to India’s multi alignment policy.
Mains question
Q. What do you understand by non-alignment and multi-alignment? Analyze the shift In India’s foreign policy from non-alignment to multi-alignment.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Three Seas Initiative
Mains level: Paper 2- Rethinking India's position on Ukraine crisis
Context
As diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the crisis in Ukraine continue, the time has come for Delhi to devote greater attention to Central Europe, which is at the heart of the contestation between Russia and the West.
Recognising the role of Central Europe in shaping the geopolitics of Europe
- Central Europe today has an identity of its own and the political agency to reshape European geopolitics.
- It is important to remember that Central Europe is no longer just a piece of territory that Russia and the Western powers can divide into “spheres of influence”.
- A grand bargain between Russia and the West will work only if it is acceptable to Central Europe.
Need for diplomatic balancing on Ukraine by India
- As war clouds gather over Ukraine, there is much focus on India’s diplomatic balancing act, its unwillingness to publicly caution Russia against invading Ukraine, and above all its reluctance to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty.
- This is not the first time that Russia’s approach to Central Europe has put Delhi in a tight corner.
- The Soviet invasion of Hungary in 1956, and Czechoslovakia in 1968, exposed an important tension in Indian diplomacy.
- In Central Europe, India’s pragmatism in not offending Moscow (an important partner) runs against the utter unacceptability of Putin’s doctrine of “limited sovereignty”, a continuation of the Soviet era policy of saying that the socialist states must subordinate their sovereignty for the sake of the “collective interests of the socialist bloc”.
Factors shaping India’s stand
- Tension with China: The prospective Russian invasion of Ukraine comes amidst India’s military tensions with China and Delhi’s continued dependence on Moscow’s military supplies.
- It also comes at a time when Delhi is trying to build an international coalition against China’s brazen attacks on the territorial sovereignty of its Asian neighbours.
- For the moment, Delhi is in a safe corner by calling for diplomacy in resolving the Ukraine crisis.
- But if Russia does invade Ukraine, the pressure on India to rethink its position will mount.
- Any such review must eventually lead to an independent appreciation of the geopolitics of Central Europe.
Five factors that must shape India’s perspective on the geopolitics of Central Europe
- 1] No taker for sphere of influence: Russia’s claim for a broad sphere of influence in the region has no takers in Central Europe.
- 2]Need for political accommodation: While Russia has legitimate security interests in Central Europe, they can only be realised through political accommodation.
- Moscow cannot enforce a sphere of influence against the will of its prospective members.
- 3] NATO as better option: few Central Europeans buy into the French vision for “European sovereignty” and “strategic autonomy”.
- They bet that NATO, led by the US, is a better option than a Europe that is independent of Washington.
- They view with even greater distaste the prospects for Russo-German condominium over Central Europe.
- 4] Resentment against imposition of political value:While they are eager to be part of the Western institutions, Central Europeans resent any attempt by the US and EU to impose political values that run against their traditional cultures.
- 5] Sub regional institution: Central Europeans are eager to develop sub-regional institutions that can enhance their identity.
- The Visegrad Four — Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia — is one of them.
- The so-called “Three Seas Initiative” brings together 12 European states running in a vertical axis from the Baltic Sea in the north to the Adriatic and Black Sea in the south.
Conclusion
Delhi can’t forever view this critical region through the prism of Russia’s conflict with the West. It must come to terms with its growing strategic significance.
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: CAATSA
Mains level: Paper 2- Challenges facing India in 2022
Context
Risks in 2022 could be both domestic and geopolitical, with many precepts that the world has been accustomed to being at risk. Democracy itself could face serious headwinds this year.
Challenges to democracy
- The world has recently seen the rise of authoritarian rulers in many countries.
- What is worrisome is that democratic tenets which have been under attack in recent years appear set to face more onslaughts this year.
- The United States, which was widely viewed as a major bulwark for democracy, appears to have developed certain pathological infirmities.
Geopolitical challenges and risks
[1] Disruption by China
- The role of China is possibly the most disrupting one, given the challenge it poses to the existing international order.
- Militarily, China is openly challenging U.S. supremacy in many areas, including ‘state-of-the-art weaponry’ such as hyper-sonic technology.
- China is now threatening Taiwan, which could well become one of the flashpoints of conflict in 2022.
- The dip in China’s economic profile in the past year and more could also lead to new tensions in the Asia-Pacific region in 2022.
[2] Russia-Ukraine conflict
- The other major risk of a war in 2022, stems from the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine — the latter being backed by the U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces.
- During the past three decades, NATO has expanded its reach almost a 1,000 miles to the east in violation of an earlier tacit understanding.
- Russia appears determined that Ukraine should be the ‘last frontier’ and, if need be, ensure this through military force.
- The situation has grave possibilities and could result in a series of cyclical outcomes with considerable damage potential.
[3] Instability in the vast region
- Unrest in Kazakhstan: The current unrest in Kazakhstan, which till recently was one of the more stable Central Asian nations, is perhaps symptomatic of what is in store.
- Recent events in Kazakhstan demonstrates a sharper cleavage between the U.S.-led West and its principal opponents, Russia and China.
- This is not a good sign for the world already wracked by a series of coups or internecine strife as in Ethiopia, Libya and certain regions of West Asia and North Africa.
[4] Return of Taliban and security implications for India
- Shift in balance of power: Of particular significance to India is that the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan has led to a material shift in the balance of power in India’s periphery.
- Developments in Afghanistan have fuelled the ambitions of quite a few ‘anti-state militant groups’ across the region.
- Even in Pakistan, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has become energised and is enlarging its sphere of action to other parts of Asia, notably Kazakhstan.
- This will have an unsettling effect across large parts of Asia.
- New evidence suggests that on India’s eastern flank, viz. Indonesia, a resurgence of radical Islamist activities is taking place.
- The Jemaah Islamiyah has reportedly become more active in Indonesia.
[5] India’s border issue with China
- The most serious issue that India confronts today is how to deal with a China that has become more confrontational.
- India’s membership of the Quad still rankles as far as China’s psyche is concerned, and during 2022, may well result in China embarking on new adventurist actions at many more points on the Sino-Indian border compelling India to react.
- Additionally, India will need to determine how best to respond to China’s provocations.
- Strengthen military posture: India would need to strengthen its military posture, both as a means to deter China and also to convince India’s neighbours that it can stand up to China.
Challenges ahead for India
- Challenge in Central Asia: Diplomatically, in 2022, India may find itself vulnerable in dealing with the turmoils which have occurred in two areas of strategic interest to it, viz. Central Asia and West Asia.
- Challenge in West Asia: In West Asia, the challenge for India is how to manage its membership of the Second Quad (India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the U.S.) with the conflicting interests of different players in the region.
- Limits to balancing: There is a limit to the kind of balancing act that India can perform, whether it be with regard to buying S-400 missile systems from Russia, risking potential sanctions from Washington under Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) or manoeuvering between the Arab States, Israel, Iran and the U.S. in West Asia.
Conclusion
Facing a host of unprecedented challenges, India’s leaders and diplomats must not only take stock of the dangers that exist but also be ready on how to manage the risks that are well evident.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Not much
Mains level: Paper 2- Centrality of Central Asian region for India
Context
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosts the five Central Asia leaders at the Republic Day Parade on January 26, it will send a strong signal — of the new prominence of the Central Asian region in India’s security calculations.
Why India needs effective continental policy
- Factors intensifying geopolitical competition: China’s assertive rise, withdrawal of forces of the United States/North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) from Afghanistan, the rise of Islamic fundamentalist forces, the changing dynamics of the historic stabilising role of Russia (most recently in Kazakhstan) and related multilateral mechanisms — the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, and the Eurasian Economic Union — have all set the stage for a sharpening of the geopolitical competition on the Eurasian landmass.
- Progress in ties: India’s continental strategy, in which the Central Asian region is an indispensable link, has progressed intermittently over the past two decades — promoting connectivity, incipient defence and security cooperation, enhancing India’s soft power and boosting trade and investment.
- It is laudable, but as is now apparent, it is insufficient to address the broader geopolitical challenges engulfing the region.
- To meet this challenge, evolving an effective continental strategy for India will be a complex and long-term exercise.
Leveraging maritime power
- India’s maritime vision and ambitions have grown dramatically during the past decade, symbolised by its National Maritime Strategy, the Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) and major initiatives relating to the Indo-Pacific and the Quad, in which maritime security figures prominently.
- It was also a response to the dramatic rise of China as a military power.
- Importance: Maritime security is important to keeping sea lanes open for trade, commerce and freedom of navigation, resisting Chinese territorial aggrandisement in the South China Sea and elsewhere, and helping littoral states resist Chinese bullying tactics in interstate relations.
- However, maritime security and associated dimensions of naval power are not sufficient instruments of statecraft as India seeks diplomatic and security constructs to strengthen deterrence against Chinese unilateral actions and the emergence of a unipolar Asia.
- Bulwarks against Chinese maritime expansionist gains are relatively easier to build and its gains easier to reverse than the long-term strategic gains that China hopes to secure on continental Eurasia.
- Centrality of Central Asia: Like Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) centrality is key to the Indo-Pacific, centrality of the Central Asian states should be key for Eurasia.
Challenges for India
1] Connectivity challenge
- Connectivity means nothing when access is denied through persistent neighbouring state hostility contrary to the canons of international law.
- India has been subject for over five decades to a land embargo by Pakistan that has few parallels in relations between two states that are technically not at war.
- Lack of alternative route: Difficulties have arisen in operationalising an alternative route — the International North-South Transport Corridor on account of the U.S.’s hostile attitude towards Iran.
- With the recent Afghan developments, India’s physical connectivity challenges with Eurasia have only become harder.
- The marginalisation of India on the Eurasian continent in terms of connectivity must be reversed.
2] India must be aware of the limitations of the US
- The ongoing U.S.-Russia confrontation relating to Ukraine, Russian opposition to future NATO expansion and the broader questions of European security including on the issue of new deployment of intermediate-range missiles, following the demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty will have profound consequences for Eurasian security.
- The U.S. would be severely stretched if it wanted to simultaneously increase its force levels in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.
- A major conflict — if it erupts in Central Europe, pitting Russia, Ukraine and some European states — will stall any hopes of a substantial U.S. military pivot to the Indo-Pacific.
- India should be cognisant of the limitations of geography, obvious gaps between strategic ambition and capacity but also the inherently different standpoints of how major maritime powers view critical questions of continental security.
- India is unique as no other peer country has the same severity of challenges on both the continental and maritime dimensions.
Way forward for India
- India would need to acquire strategic vision and deploy the necessary resources to pursue our continental interests without ignoring our interests in the maritime domain.
- This will require a more assertive push for our continental rights — namely that of transit and access, working with our partners in Central Asia, with Iran and Russia, and a more proactive engagement with economic and security agendas ranging from the SCO, Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
- Striking the right balance between continental and maritime security would be the best guarantor of our long-term security interests.
Conclusion
India will need to define its own parameters of continental and maritime security consistent with its own interests. In doing so, at a time of major geopolitical change, maintaining our capacity for independent thought and action will help our diplomacy and statecraft navigate the difficult landscape and the choppy waters that lie ahead.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: The Ashgabat Agreement,
Mains level: Paper 2- India's central Indian outreach
Context
The evolving situation in Afghanistan has thrown up renewed challenges for India’s regional and bilateral ties with Central Asia and the Caucasus, prompting India to recalibrate its rules of engagement with the region.
Background of India’s relations with Central Asian countries
- After the breakup of the Soviet Union and the formation of the independent republics in Central Asia, India reset its ties with the strategically critical region.
- India provided financial aid to the region and established diplomatic relations.
- New Delhi signed the Strategic Partnership Agreements (SPA) with Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to stimulate defence cooperation and deepen trade relations.
- In 2012, New Delhi’s ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy aimed at furthering India’s political, economic, historical and cultural connections with the region.
- However, India’s efforts were stonewalled by Pakistan’s lack of willingness to allow India passage through its territory.
Renewed engagement with Central Asia
- The growing geostrategic and security concerns regarding the BRI’s China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and its violation of India’s sovereignty forced New Delhi to fix its lethargic strategy.
- Eventually, Central Asia became the link that placed Eurasia in New Delhi’s zone of interest.
- India signed MoUs with Iran in 2015 to develop the Chabahar port in the Sistan-Baluchistan province that was in the doldrums from 2003.
- External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar was in the region earlier this month.
- In Kyrgyzstan, Mr. Jaishankar extended a credit line of $200 million for the support of development projects and signed an memorandum of understanding (MoU) on High-Impact Community Development Projects (HICDP).
- Kazakhstan: His next stop was the Kazakhstan capital, Nur Sultan, where he attended the 6th Foreign Ministers’ Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA).
- Armenia: Mr. Jaishankar has become the first Indian External Affairs Minister to visit Armenia.
- During the visit, Mr. Jaishankar also supported efforts for a peaceful solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia under the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Minsk group.
Limits of SCO
- The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was created in response to the threats of terrorism that sprang from Afghanistan.
- The Taliban re-establishing its supremacy over Afghanistan has also exposed the weaknesses of coalitions such as SCO.
- The SCO has been used by most member countries for their own regional geostrategic and security interests, increasing the trust-deficit and divergence within the forum.
Way forward
- Most of the Central Asian leaders view India’s Chabahar port as an opportunity to diversify their export markets and control China’s ambitions.
- They have admitted New Delhi into the Ashgabat Agreement, allowing India access to connectivity networks to facilitate trade and commercial interactions with both Central Asia and Eurasia, and also access the natural resources of the region.
- Rising anti-Chinese sentiments within the region and security threats from the Taliban allow New Delhi and Central Asia to reimagine their engagement.
- Central Asian countries have been keen to have India as a partner as they have sought to diversify their strategic ties.
Conclusion
India cannot afford to lose any time in recalibrating its regional engagements.
