Category: Burning Issues

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Context

• With over twenty regional languages, each with its own culture and history, language was always going to be a tricky issue for India.
• Remarks by a notable Hindi actor to the effect that Hindi is the national language of India has sparked controversy recently over the status of the language under the Constitution.
• The trigger for the argument was when Kannada film industry celebrated the nationwide success of a blockbuster movie.
• The actor said in its response that Hindi was no more a pan-India language.

“The wordplay between Rajbhasha and Rashtrabhasha often spark such debate out of sheer negligence over their meanings.”

Hindi: A Backgrounder

‘Hindi Hai Hum, Watan Hai Hindustan Humara…’, for most of us, an everlasting childhood memory is standing in an assembly queue and singing the couplet (Sare Jahan se achha, Hindustan hamara) written by Muhammad Iqbal.

• At that time we never thought of the real idea behind Hindustan.
• In the post-Westphalian or rather European conception of the nation-state, language has been the driving factor for the formation of a separate country altogether.
• This came as a major challenge in the constituent assembly, because, unlike in Europe, it was impossible to theorize India’s linguistic diversity which ultimately accumulated under a single national identity.

Mahatma Gandhi’s view on Hindi

• In 2019, Home minister Amit Shah had invoked Mahatma Gandhi while backing the government’s idea that Hindi should be the identifying language of India.
• However, researchers believed that Gandhi kept changing his position.
• After 1942, Gandhi seemed to stress the adoption of Hindustani, a fusion of Hindi and Urdu, not Hindi, as the unifying language of the masses.

“We need also a common language not in suppression of the vernaculars, but in addition to them. It is generally agreed that that medium should be Hindustani – a resultant of Hindi and Urdu, neither highly Sanskritized, nor highly Persianized or Arabianized.” (Young India, 1925)

Hindi, Hindustani or English? The Constituent Assembly Debates

• At the time, most countries defined their nationhood through a common language and so during the Constituent Assembly debates, the question of a national language was tied closely with a desire for national unity.
• Initially, Hindustani, with its hybrid of Hindi and Urdu, was a viable option.
• Writing in an essay in 1937, Jawaharlal Nehru termed Hindustani a “golden mean.”
• However, after Partition, the debate changed. Instead of Hindustani, Hindi (bereft of its Urdu influence) was being put forward as a potential national language.
• But the opposition to Hindi as a national language from representatives from southern states was fierce too.

TA Ramalingam Chettiar representing Madras in the Constituent Assembly in September 1949, said,

“We have got languages which are better cultivated and which have greater literature than Hindi in our areas. If we are going to accept Hindi, it is not on account of the excellence of the language. It is merely on account of the existence of a large number of people speaking Hindi.”

What is the status of Hindi?

• Finally, the Constituent Assembly adopted what was known as “Munshi-Ayyangar Formula.”
• According to this, Hindi in the Devnagari script would be the official language of the Union.

Official, not national

• English would continue to be used for all official purposes for the next 15 years, to enable a smooth transition for non-Hindi speaking states.
• The deadline was 26 January 1965.

• Under Article 343 of the Constitution, the official language of the Union shall be Hindi in Devanagari script.
• The international form of Indian numerals will be used for official purposes.

What is the Eighth Schedule? The Eighth Schedule contains a list of languages in the country. Initially, there were 14 languages in the schedule, but now there are 22 languages.There is no description of the sort of languages that are included or will be included in the Eighth Schedule.

Evolution of the Language Debate

• There have been some developments in the language debate since 1965.
• In 1968, a National Policy on Education was adopted.
• It presented a three-language formula, according to which, in non-Hindi-speaking states, Hindi should be studied optionally along with English and the regional language.
• The 1968 NPE was ostensibly updated in the Draft New Education Policy 2019, where Hindi was proposed to be taught mandatorily in schools in non-Hindi-speaking states.
• The proposal sparked outrage, especially in southern states like Tamil Nadu.

What is the Three-language formula?

• Since the 1960s, the Centre’s education policy documents speak of teaching three languages — Hindi, English and one regional language in Hindi-speaking States, and Hindi, English and the official regional language in other States.
• In practice, however, only some States teach both their predominant language and Hindi, besides English.
• In States where Hindi is the official language, a third language is rarely taught as a compulsory subject.

Why has language become a sensitive issue?

• Self-identification: A strong identification with one’s regional language and an underlying fear of homogenisation is at the heart of the national language question in India. An individual conceptualises and communicates his thoughts in a language, enabling him to be an active part of society.
• Language defines primary group: People identify with one another based on language, thus giving them a primary group. A nation is the largest primary group that once can address.
• Learning abilities at stake: The dangers of imposing a language are manifold. It can affect the learning ability of non-native speakers thereby affecting their self-confidence.
• Threats to endangered languages: It can also endanger other languages and dialects and reduce diversity.
• Threats to diversity: National integration cannot come at the cost of people’s linguistic identities. Language is integral to culture and therefore privileging Hindi over all other languages spoken in India takes away from its diversity.
• Promises made by Constituent Assembly: Then PM Pt. Nehru had promised that Hindi would only serve as a linking language and it would not be imposed on non-Hindi speaking states as long as they were against it.

Benefits of having a national language

• Wide range of speakers: Hindi is still the most widely spoken language in the country with an estimated 258 million people declaring that Hindi is their native language and millions more comfortable with Hindi.
• Language as a unifying language: A complete usage of Hindi language whilst respecting the various native languages would also ensure better coordination and cooperation among all the states and act as a strong unifying factor and eliminate all regional differences.
• Reputation at international fora: When countries like Germany, Japan, France, Italy etc. use their respective language as a medium of communication even during International forums not only has the reputation of those countries have greatly enhanced but also those languages have gained a huge reputation worldwide.

Issues with Hindi

• Inherent opposition to Hindi: The Constituent Assembly was bitterly divided on the question, with members from States that did not speak Hindi initially opposing the declaration of Hindi as a national language.
• Fear of imposition: Opponents were against English being done away with, fearing that it may lead to Hindi domination in regions that did not speak the language.
• Symbol of identity politics: The approach towards linguistic policy seems to be driven more by the politics of identity than values of aspiration or accommodation.
• Favour for majoritarianism: The primary argument in favour of Hindi has been reduced to assertions of slim majoritarianism.
• Few speakers, still dominant: Even then, there are concerns about the claim based on mere numerical strength, as only 25 per cent of Indians seem to recognise Hindi as their mother tongue (Census 2011).
• Demographic barriers: Today nearly 35% of people are migrating daily for work. In such a situation, we have to conceptualise a new form of language identity for our states.
• Economic barriers: Any idea of one link language, whether Hindi or English, will be economically disastrous for India. It will slow down migration and reduce the ease of capital flow.
• Multiple dialects: Only five states in India have Hindi as their’ native language’. However, in those states, too, the dialects of Hindi are associated with locals and their communities.

Why Hindi cannot be the national language?

• Multiple dialects: Hindi has largely been influenced by Persian — and then English, among other languages. Also, when the languages were enumerated, Hindi subsumed Bhojpuri, which is spoken by a little over five crore people.  

• Inefficacy of Sanskrit: There were demands to make Sanskrit the official language, while some argued in favour of ‘Hindustani’.
• Issue over Script: There were differences of opinion over the script too. When opinion veered towards accepting Hindi, proponents of the language wanted the ‘Devanagari’ script to be adopted both for words and numerals.

Why this issue needs a rational consideration?

• Linguistic chauvinism: Various policies on language have been framed both by the central and state governments that have been termed as forms of linguistic chauvinism.  Ex. Obsession for Marathi in Mumbai
• Secular fabric under threat: The states’ fear of the central government’s ideology of monopolising faith, education, and language will adversely affect the Indian political system, which is based on pluralism and accommodation.
• Monolingualism can prove disastrous: If there is a mechanical and monolithic idea of unity followed by any entity, such an entity generally generates great hostility beyond its immediate borders.  In neighbouring Bangladesh – then East Pakistan – the language movement against the imposition of Urdu on Bengali speakers was a key driver of Pakistan splitting into two nations.

Way forward

• Language as a skill: Language should be looked at as an important skill to operate in a world which is more connected today than at any other point in time.
• Language not a cultural burden: A united nation has to have space for diversity. India is united in its diversity. Diversity is a great philosophical idea and should never be seen as a cultural burden.
• Linguistic heritage needs priority: This is not to contend that our linguistic heritage should be neglected or trivialised. Our metropolises must be recognised as multilingual entities.

Conclusion

• National integration in a multilingual country does not require the imposition of one official language.
• At the same time, the convenience, in fact the necessity, of having one or more languages as the official language for centre-state and inter-state communication for political, economic, legal and even social reasons cannot be disputed.
• Politics over language would never end until India truly attains the ideal federal structure.

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Context

• President of the European Commission Ursula Von Der Leyen was on two–day official visit to India.
• She has heaped all praises for the robustness of Indian democracy. She went on to say that ‘World Watches When Indians Cast Their Vote’.
• Both sides are expected to review the progress on various aspects of the relationship and further intensify the multifaceted partnership with EU.

About European Union (EU)

• The EU is a political and economic union of 27 member states that are located primarily in Europe.
• The union and EU citizenship were established when the Maastricht Treaty came into force in 1993.
• The EU grew out of a desire to strengthen international economic and political co-operation on the European continent in the wake of World War II.
• It has often been described as a sui generis political entity (without precedent or comparison) with the characteristics of either a federation or confederation.
• The eurozone consists of all countries that use the euro as official currency. All EU members pledge to convert to the euro, but only 19 have done so as of 2022.

Members of the EU

• Through successive enlargements, the European Union has grown from the six founding states (Belgium, France, West Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands) to 27 members.
• This entails a partial delegation of sovereignty to the institutions in return for representation within those institutions, a practice often referred to as “pooling of sovereignty“.
• In the 2016 ‘Brexit’ referendum, the UK voted to leave the EU. The UK officially left the EU in 2020

India-EU Relations: A Backgrounder

• It’s been 60 years since India accredited its first ambassador to the European Economic Community (EEC), the organisation that served as embryo for the European Union.
• Back then, India was a protectionist economy trying to move away from the British colonial era while the EEC consisted of just six European countries.
• Today, the relations between the EU and India are defined by the 1994 EU–India Cooperation Agreement.
• India and the EU became “Strategic Partners” in 2004.

[A] Political Partnership

• The Joint Political Statement signed in 1993, opened the way for annual ministerial meetings and a broad political dialogue.
• The Cooperation Agreement signed in 1994 took the bilateral relationship beyond trade and economic cooperation.
• A multi-tiered institutional architecture of cooperation has since been created, presided over by the India-EU Summit since 2000.
• Today EU stands as a major reference for India’s legislative process in the field of Data security and privacy.

[B] Economic Ties

• Bilateral trade: The EU is India’s largest trading partner, while India is the EU’s 9^th largest trading partner. It is the second-largest destination for Indian exports after the United States.
• Investment: The EU’s share in foreign investment inflows to India has more than doubled from 8% to 18% in the last decade. This makes the EU an important foreign investor in India.
• Preferential treatment: India is the benefactor of the unilateral preferential tariffs under the EU Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP).
• Energy: Both sides have finalised civil nuclear cooperation agreement after 13 years of negotiations called as the European Atomic Energy Community (EURATOM). It involves collaboration in the civil nuclear energy sector.
• Development cooperation: Over €150 million worth of projects by EU are currently ongoing in India. European Investment Bank (EIB) is providing loans for Lucknow, Bangalore, and Pune Metro Projects.

[C] Defence & Security

• EU and India have instituted several mechanisms for greater cooperation on pressing security challenges like counterterrorism, maritime security, and nuclear non-proliferation.
• Information Fusion Centre – Indian Ocean Region in New Delhi (IFC-IOR) has recently been linked-up with the Maritime Security Centre – Horn of Africa (MSC-HOA) established by the EU Naval Force (NAVFOR).

 [D] Climate Change

• EU and India also underline their highest political commitment to the effective implementation of the Paris Agreement and the UNFCCC despite US withdrawing from the same.
• India-EU Clean Energy and Climate Partnership was agreed at the 2016 Summit – to promote access to and disseminate clean energy and climate friendly technologies and encourage R&D.
• Energy cooperation is now ongoing on a broad range of energy issues, like smart grids, energy efficiency, offshore wind and solar infrastructure, and research and innovation.
• EU and India also cooperate closely on the Clean Ganga initiative and deal with other water-related challenges in coordinated manner.

[E] Research and Development

• India-EU Science & Technology Steering Committee meets annually to review scientific cooperation.
• Both have official mechanisms in fields such as Digital Communications, 5G technology, Biotechnology, artificial intelligence etc.
• ISRO has a long-standing cooperation with the European Union, since 1970s. It has contributed towards the EU’s satellite navigation system Galileo.

Major limitations to the ties

• Deadlock over BTIA: The negotiations for a Broad-based Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) were held between 2007 to 2013 but have remained dormant/suspended since then.
• Export hurdles: Indian demands for ‘Data secure’ status (important for India’s IT sector) to ease norms on temporary movement of skilled workers, relaxation of Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS), etc. stands largely ignored.
• Trade imbalance: This heavily leans towards China. India accounts for only 1.9% of EU total trade in goods in 2019, well behind China (13.8%).
• Brexit altercations: In the longer term of balancing of global powers, a smaller Europe without the key military and economic force UK, is much weaker in the wake of an ambitious China and an increasingly protectionist US.
• EU primarily remains a trade bloc: This has resulted in a lack of substantive agreements on matters such as regional security and connectivity.
• Undue references to sovereign concerns: The European Parliament was critical of both the Indian government’s decision to scrap Jammu and Kashmir’s special status in 2019 and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act.
• China’s influence: EU’s affinity lies with China. This is because of its high dependence on the Chinese market. It is a major partner in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
• Ukrainian war: EAM S. Jaishankar’s witty reply about EU’s oil import from Russia has not been welcomed across the EU. It still expects India to criticize Russia.

EU’s interests in India

• Reducing dependence on China: It is necessary for both sides as it is making them highly vulnerable to Chinese aggression.
• Western lobby: EU acknowledges its supply chain’s vulnerability, the risk posed by overdependence on China, and the need to strengthen the global community of democracies.
• Healthcare: The on-going pandemic has shown the need for cooperation in global health. India and the EU have called for a reform of the World Health Organisation (WHO).
• Perception of India as a huge market: EU still largely perceives India as huge market rather than a partner.
• Promotion of multilateralism: Both sides are facing issues related to US-China trade war and uncertainty of the US’ policies. They have common interest in avoiding a bipolarised world and developing a rules-based order.

India’s stakes in EU

• Global leadership vacuum: Retreat of the U.S. from global leadership has provided opportunities for EU- India cooperation and trilateral dialogues with countries in the Middle Fast, Central Asia, and Africa.
• Chinese Aggression: China’s increasing presence in Eurasia and South Asia is creating similar security, political and economic concerns for Europe and India.
• Fall of the conventional global order: Trade war, crumbling WTO and break down of TPP etc. has made EU understand the economic importance of India.
• BREXIT: Brexit is pushing India to look for new ‘gateways’ to Europe, as its traditional partner leaves the union. A renewed trade and political cooperation are the need of the hour.
• Conformity over Indo-Pacific: The Indo-Pacific is the main conduit for global trade and energy flows. Rule-based Indo-pacific is of everyone’s interest with EU no exception.

Way forward

• A close bilateral relation between India and the EU has far-reaching economic, political and strategic implications on the crisis-driven international order.
• Both sides should realise this potential and must further the growth of the bilateral ties with a strong political will.
• As highlighted by EU strategy on India 2018, India-EU should take their relations beyond “trade lens”, recognizing their important geopolitical, strategic convergences.
• India can pursue EU countries to engage in Indo-pacific narrative, geo-economically if not from security prism.

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Context

• Sri Lanka continues to grapple with its worst-ever economic crisis as it has defaulted on all of its external debt of about $51 billion – after running out of foreign exchange for imports, calling it the last resort.
• So while domestic policies are largely being seen as reasons for Sri Lanka’s economic collapse, many also blame China for the unprecedented crisis in the island nation.
• Defaults over China’s infrastructure loans to Sri Lanka, especially the financing of the Hambantota port are being cited as factors leading to the crisis.

In this article, we will try and understand China’s lending model and the reasons it is coming under increasing criticism from low & middle-income countries against unsustainable debt.

American statesman John Adams, who served as president from 1797 to 1801, famously said, “There are two ways to conquer and enslave a country: One is by the sword; the other is by debt.” China, choosing the second path, has embraced colonial-era practices and rapidly emerged as the world’s biggest official creditor.

What is Debt Trap Diplomacy?

• Loans to repay loans: The debt trap is a situation where one is forced to over consume loans to repay your existing debts.
• Political leverage is exploited: Debt-trap diplomacy is a term in IR which describes a creditor country or institution extending debt to a borrowing nation partially, or solely, to increase the lender’s political leverage. The term was coined by an Indian academic Brahma Chellaney.
• IMF and Chinese tools of coercion: Although the term is most commonly associated with China, it has also been applied to the International Monetary Fund (IMF); both allegations, however, are disputed.

Features of such diplomacy

• Lending is initially very indiscriminate
• Terms of the loans are often not publicized
• More conditional loans are offered to repay and restructure old debts
• Such loans benefit the lender by undue exploitation of the borrower
• Interest rates are hefty and unrealistic
• It seeks sovereign guarantee and sovereign leases
• Default leads to geo-strategic overtakes ex. PLA Navy being deployed at Hambantota Port

Roots of such policy

• There are many cases of countries in the 19th and early 20th century, the high-water mark of European colonialism and imperialism, using debt-funded infrastructure projects to embark on rapid modernisation.
• For instance, the French-led design and construction of the Suez Canal.
• It involved the issuing of £3.3 million’s worth of Egyptian bonds in 1863 on behalf of the Egyptian Khedive.
• In return Egypt, committed to provide labour and a 99-year operational lease to France (much similar to the terms of Hambantota Port).
• One of the earliest successes of China’s debt-trap diplomacy was in securing 1,158 square kilometers of strategic Pamir Mountains territory from Tajikistan in 2011 in exchange for debt forgiveness.

Sri Lankan Case

• Using its own brand of “strategic investments” China is now forcing smaller states to abide by its dictates.
• Sri Lanka’s case is a text-book example of the Chinese modus operandi in pursuing its strategic interests.
• In July 2017, the Sri Lankan government and CMPort (China Merchants Port Holdings Company), a state- owned Chinese company, signed an agreement.
• It granted China a 99-year lease of the Hambantota harbour and 15,000 acres of land in exchange for $1.2 billion.

How does China seek to achieve this?

• Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): The BRI is a trillion-dollar initiative, which makes large-scale loans available to countries seeking to build infrastructure projects.
• Ignorance to creditworthiness: Instead of first evaluating a borrower country’s creditworthiness, including whether new loans could saddle it with an onerous debt crisis, China is happy to lend.
• Secrecy of negotiations: The China allegedly keep negotiations very secret and non-competitive pricing of projects.
• Bidding is closed-door: Contracts go to Chinese state-owned or state-linked companies which charge significantly above-market prices.
• Bribing of the govt: China also shows up with bribes to senior leaders in countries, in exchange for infrastructure projects.

Worst outcomes

• Sri Lanka: It was forced to hand over control of the Hambantota port project to China for 99 years, after it found itself under massive debt owed to Beijing.
• Pakistan: It is literally sold to into the hands of the China over the development of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
• Gulf region: Similarly, in exchange for relief, China constructed its first military base in Djibouti.
• India: SL allowed China control over a key port positioned at the doorstep of its regional rival India, and a strategic foothold along a key commercial and military waterway.

Chinese prophecy of its policy

• Anti-China sentiments: Communist Party of China calls it a “meme” which became popular due to “human negativity bias” based on anxiety about the rise of China as a global superpower.
• Obsession for China over the West: Many nations, Pakistan being the best example finds China as an attractive partner for their development.
• Success of such loans: Most of the debtor countries voluntarily agreed to the loans and had positive experiences working with China.
• Already existing debt distress: CCP conforms that Chinese loans are not currently a major contributor to the already existing debt distress in Africa.
• Debt-Restructure Policy: China restructured or waived loan payments for 51 debtor nations (most of the BRI’s participants) without seizing state assets.
• Case par excellence: Hambantota is an exception for China’s since the project was proposed by former Sri Lankan president Mahinda Rajapaksa, not Beijing.
• Its borrowers who seek loans: China’s leverage in debt renegotiation is often exaggerated, and was realistically limited in power.
• Waivers are considered: Considering the particular case of Pakistan, asset seizures are a very rare occurrence, and debt write-off is the most common outcome.

Why do countries go for Chinese offers?

• Distressed under-developed /developing countries: In retrospect, China’s designs might seem obvious. But the decision by many developing countries to accept Chinese loans was, in many ways, understandable.
• Negligence by World Bank and IMF: Most developed nations got neglected by institutional investors, since they had major unmet infrastructure needs. Countries that don’t want to go the IMF for a bailout when they’re in trouble, they went to China instead.
• Former colonists turned blind eyes: Most African and Asian countries turned troubled after de-colonization. Their finances were literally sucked up by colonists in post WW2 recovery.
• China empathized when nobody else did: So when China showed up, promising benevolent investment and easy credit, they were all in.
• Blaming Beijing is the easier option:  It became clear only later that China’s real objectives were commercial penetration and strategic leverage; by then, it was too late, and countries were trapped in a vicious cycle.

Do you know?

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the central bank is no more a sovereign bank unlike the RBI. It has now become a commercial bank!

Has India taken any loans from China?

Ans. No. It’s the AIIB Loan.

• India has not entered into any loan agreement directly with China.
• However, it has been the top borrower of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), a multilateral bank wherein China is the largest shareholder (26.6% voting rights) and India is the second (7.6% voting rights). 
• China’s vote share allows it veto power over decisions requiring super-majority.
• Loans provided to India could also pave the way for Chinese firms to enter and gain experience in the promising Indian infra market.

Impact of Chinese policy on India

• Almost all neighbours got lured: Most of India’s neighbours have fallen prey to China’s debt trap, and ceded to China’s $8 tn project – One Belt One Road Initiative (OBOR).
• India’s sovereignty concerns disregarded: CPEC requires India to accept that the Kashmir-controlled Pakistan region, is Pakistan, because that’s where some of the projects are.
• Perception change against traditional partners: China through OBOR can hence increase India’s political cost of dealing with its neighbours. Ex. Bangladesh now cherishes Chinese affinity more than its liberator.

A critical assessment

• Of course, extending loans for infrastructure projects is not inherently bad: The projects that China is supporting are often intended not to support the local economy, but to facilitate Chinese access to natural resources, or to open the market for its low-cost exports.
• Several projects are now bleeding money: In a sense, it is even better for China that the projects don’t do well. After all, the heavier the debt burden on smaller countries, the greater China’s own leverage becomes.
• Chinese morale are now high enough to prey its small neighbours: China has used its clout to push Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Thailand to block a united ASEAN stand against China’s aggressive pursuit of its territorial claims in the South China Sea.
• China is establishing its monopoly: In financially risky countries, China now demands majority ownership up front. For example, China clinched a deal with Nepal this month to build another largely Chinese-owned dam there, with its state-run China Three Gorges Corporation taking a 75% stake.
• Debt for a debt has become crème de la crème: In exchange for rescheduling repayment, China is requiring countries to award it contracts for additional projects, thereby making their debt crises interminable.
• China is becoming increasingly opportunistic and seizing assets: Countries that are not yet ensnared in China’s debt trap should take note – and take whatever steps they can to avoid it.
• Deadly obligations are pre-conditions: China does obligate the borrower to exclude the Chinese debt from any multilateral restructuring process, such as the Paris Club of official bilateral creditors, and from any “comparable debt treatment.”
• China has taken over exclusive development rights:  In small island nations, China has converted big loans into acquisition of entire islets through exclusive development rights. It took over a couple of islets in the Indian Ocean archipelago of the Maldives and one island in the South Pacific nation of the Solomon Islands.
• Some developing economies are regretting their decision: Protests have erupted over widespread joblessness, purportedly caused by Chinese dumping of goods, which is killing off local manufacturing, and exacerbated by China’s import of workers for its own projects.
• Rise of neo-imperialism: By integrating its foreign, economic, and security policies, China is advancing its goal of fashioning a hegemonic sphere through security links. If states are burdened with high levels of debt as a result, their financial woes only aid China’s neocolonial designs.

Do you know?

Yuan is now the official currency of Zimbabwe!

Way forward

• India needs to loop in: Getting ready to challenge China’s profile by enhancing its own regional role as an economic and security actor is the need of the hour for India.
• Ring-fencing of its neighbours: India also needs to maintain its influence in the region and counter the growing debt-trap initiatives via cooperative strategies and humanitarian aid, a move aimed to ring-fence its strategic interests.
• Countering China in maritime sphere: At a time when China is strangling India in the north with its attempts to change facts on the ground, it is imperative for India to strategically think of using the maritime sphere to break Beijing’s growing dominance in its periphery.
• Alternatives for finances: India needs to push these small countries to improve its ties with the US and the West. The so called ‘assistance’ should be as per international standards or as per the interest rate imposed by the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and others.

Conclusion

• Thus it is very much clear that- China often begins as an economic partner of a small, financial weak country and then gradually enlarges its footprint in that state to become its economic and political master. 
• Atmanirbharta (Self-reliance) is the key to all such miseries.

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Context

• The recent anti-encroachment drive in northwest Delhi’s violence-hit Jahangirpuri has become the latest flashpoint between political parties in the national capital.
• The matter also reached the Supreme Court, which ordered a stay on the drive.
• However, dissidents has now put questions over the legality of actions by municipal authorities and the manner in which certain structures were razed to the ground using bulldozers.

A close look at the pertinent legal provisions and constitutional principles involved in issues related to coercive processes against unauthorised constructions and encroachments may help putting the entire controversy in the right perspective:

What is Encroachment?

• Encroachment is a real estate situation where a property owner violates contractual property rights by unlawfully entering, building, or extending structures onto Public Land without permission.
• Structural encroachment occurs when a property owner unlawfully builds or extends structures on the Public Land.

Examples of Encroachment:

1. Unlawfully entering, trespassing, or walking through a property
2. Building a fence that goes past own property line
3. Extending structures or buildings onto the public domain (e.g., roads and sidewalks)
4. Non-government construction that overlaps govt property lines

Why encroachment is a problem?

• Land is already a scarce commodity: Illicit occupation of public land puts stress on the already declining land resource availability.
• Encroachment results in constriction of the public spaces: Road is narrowed down since it is occupied by structures supporting the livelihoods of the poor.
• Public has the right of way: Pedestrians would suffer as people would have fewer spaces to walk. Encroachment on public roads increases the road traffic.
• Maintenance of civic amenities becomes difficult: Severs, nullahs are chocked up due to encroachment. This creates sanitation and health crisis especially during monsoons.

Genesis of anti-encroachment drives in India

• Anti-CAA protests: In 2019, after protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) turned violent in Uttar Pradesh.
• Compensation of public property damage: The CM ordered that compensation from property damage will be extracted from those who participated in the riots, to the tune of Rs 50 lakh.
• Seizure of properties: He also announced that properties will be seized if people default on these payments.

How is Encroachment Demolition related to Rioting?

• Prevention of Damage to Public Property Act, 1984: This is what governs actions taken against people convicted of rioting. However, this act levies a jail term and a fine on the offenders.
• Assessment of damages caused: In 2009, the Supreme Court had said that respective high courts can appoint benches to adjudicate on damages during protests and riots.
• Civil liability against damaging: In 2018, the Supreme Court had said that individuals will invite civil and criminal liability if found guilty of damaging public property. 

What is the communal angle of recent demolition drive?

Ans. State-directed demolition of homes of the alleged rioters

• The demolition drive was initiated by North Delhi Municipal Corporation (NDMC) to demolish the “illegal constructions” of the rioters in Jahangirpuri.
• Communal violence had broken out in the area when a religious procession, which did not have police permission, clashed with minority community as it went alongside the place of worship.
• This put a repulsive on other incidents, in Khargone in MP and Khambhat in Gujarat, where communal flare-ups were followed by the state-directed demolition of homes of the alleged rioters.

How did this intimidate minority groups?

Anti-encroachment drives in India are not new. What is new is that the current drives are outside the pale of the law.

• Actions without notice: Irrespective of the legal status of the settlement, no public authority can demolish buildings without giving the affected parties a chance to be heard.
• Bulldozing of petty areas: The bulldozer has now become a symbol of brute state power and a revolting mascot to intimidate minority groups in the country.
• Collective punishment is state tyranny: It conveys the cynical use of brute state power for collective punishment undermining the basic tenets of criminal law.
• Flawed binary of legality over illegality: The binary of slums settlements has very little meaning in Delhi, and much of urban India, since a majority of the residents appears to be of minority community.
• Revengeful majoritarian justice: The demolition of homes and shops of alleged culprits of portrays the establishment as a bulldozer state that dispenses revengeful justice.
• Public endorsement from the far-rights: Worryingly, the new rule of the bulldozer state seems to have some level of public endorsement.

Why impulsive encroachment demolition is a bad idea?

• Issue of fair trial: From the legal perspective, the concept of a fair trial comes under question, since the government issued those notices before the people accused of participating in the riots were tried by any court.
• Ambiguity of Public Property Act, 1984: Senior advocates thus said that such a decision is unconstitutional and has no backing from the law.
• Curbing dissent: They also claimed seizure of property was being used as a means to curb peaceful dissent staged by certain communities.
• Disregard for the due process of law: Such actions show a blatant disregard for the due process of law and established judicial precedents regarding evictions.
• Arbitrary actions:  Even before any charges are framed, the executive rather than the judiciary arbitrarily imposes a form of collective punishment upon a whole neighbourhood.
• Creation of communal disharmony: Petitioners in the case claimed that the demolition drives were communal in nature since they were aimed at the localities of minority communities.

Larger impact: Rise of minority assertion

• Marginalization and alienation: Minority community in India feels to be increasingly marginalized ever since the reigning in of the right-winged government. They have faced a spike in attacks, hate speech and harassment.
• Demonizing the entire community: The modus operandi looks similar these days, i.e. to create an event of communal tension and clashes, declare names of rioters in a one-sided way, hence demonizing the community.
• Rise in collective insecurity: Arbitrarily punitive demolition of this kind using a bulldozer as an extrajudicial threat or extrajudicial punishment is adding fuel to this temptation of insecurity.
• Communal disharmony: Arbitrary state actions tends to divide people on religious lines– in most cases the minority and to win power on the basis of a religious identity.
• Threats of radicalization: The poor and marginalized community is often vulnerable to the brisk of radicalization. There is a possibility of its inevitability.

Supreme Court rulings on removal of unauthorised constructions and encroachments

There has been a long line of cases underlining the significance of due process and adherence to the principle of natural justice where people are deprived of their rights to shelter or to earn a livelihood:

(1) Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation Vs Nawabkhan Gulabkhan and others (1977)

• The top court held that while a notice may not be required in cases of encroachment of recent origin, if a municipal body allows settlement of encroachers for a long time, it must give a notice of reasonable time to such settlers.
• If the encroachment is not removed within the specified time, it added, the competent authority would be at liberty to have it removed.
• That would meet the fairness of procedure and principle of giving opportunity to remove the encroachment voluntarily by the encroachers.

(2) Olga Tellis Vs Bombay Municipal Corporation (1985)

• The landmark verdict acknowledged the right to shelter and the right to earn livelihood as forming part of right to life under Article 21 of the Constitution.
• The apex court rejected the plea of BMC that no notice need be given to slum dwellers since slums were sheer encroachments on public lands.
• Removal of encroachments without prior notice was arbitrary; the court held that such powers are designed to operate as an “exception” and not the “general rule.”

(3) MC Mehta Case (2006)

• The Supreme Court was dealing with sealing of properties in Delhi on account of unauthorised use of properties (residential properties being used for commercial purposes).
• It directed that the MCD would first issue public notices in leading newspapers, asking violators to stop misuse of properties within the period of 30 days.

Official justification of the recent demolition drive

• Anti-encroachment drives were long due: Officials claimed in court, that the demolitions were a part of anti-encroachment drives that had been planned in advance and were not specifically targeting the alleged rioters.
• Discouraging the ever-increasing Slumization: The non-enforcement of strict regulations against encourages the public for encroachment hence the move was carried out.
• No communal intent: The demolition drive in New Delhi has bulldozed all illicit constructions irrespective of the encroachers identity since the areas are inhabited by all communities.

Way Forward

• Prevention of further encroachments: The local authorities and the state governments must become proactive in the prevention of encroachment of public lands.
• Law abiding citizens: The citizens should abide by the rules and regulations and if they violate the rule of law, the violators should be penalized.
• Due process of law must be held prime: Respecting the law of the land should be the norm and if there are any deviations the illegal structures should be bulldozed only after following due process of law.
• Considering involuntary and forceful encroachments: The Supreme Court’s guidelines in the Olga Tellis judgment needs to be imbibed in true spirit.
• Rehabilitation of slum-dwellers: and not the destruction of slums is the only way forward.

Conclusion

• Slums and ‘unauthorised’ colonies like Jahangirpuri form the underbelly of India’s capital.
• The city derives its energy from the thousands of informal workers living in these colonies.
• It is high time the State recognizes their value and rights. 

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Context

The importance of care work is now widely acknowledged and covered in various international commitments such as the SDGs. However, the investment in the care economy has not matched the pace.

What is the care economy?

• The care economy includes child care, elder care, and care for people who are ill or disabled and in need of assistance. That care is provided by home-based businesses, care centers, and individuals who work in the homes of those they care for.
• The 2019 ILO report ‘A Quantum Leap for Gender Equality’ identified unpaid care work as the biggest impediment to women’s formal employment, as it engaged 21.7% of women between 18-54 years of age, as opposed to 1.7% of men.
• A medium-term plan to increase public investment in care economy infrastructure offers India a credible instrument to meet multiple policy objectives.

Care work and Care Economy

A system that consists of activities and relationships involved in meeting the physical, emotional, and psychological aspects of care — remains an integral but undervalued component of economies all over the world, ensuring the welfare of communities. Care work can be direct or indirect, paid or unpaid, short-term (maternity needs) or long-term (care for the disabled and elderly).

Why is there an increasing demand for care work?

• Individualization– The trend towards a culture of individualization from collectivism will lead to a higher proportion of dependent people.
• Demographic Transition-  The proportion of elderly people in the population is rising slowly.

• Climate change- Climate change has caused water scarcity and rural food distress which increases care burden on women and children.
• The ILO estimates that doubling investment in care relative to 2015 levels would generate 117 million additional jobs by 2030.
• According to the International Trade Union Confederation (2019), an investment of 2% GDP in care in India would create 11 million jobs, of which 32.5% would be garnered by women.
• The relational nature of care also implies that these jobs are less likely to be automated.

What is the significance of the care economy?

• Employment- An analysis by the Women’s Budget Group (2019) showed that if an additional 2% of the GDP was invested in the Indian health and care sector, 11 million additional jobs could be generated, nearly a third of which would go to women.
• Greater investment in care services can create an additional 300 million jobs globally, many of which will be for women.
• Development- This will help increase female labor force participation and advance Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 8.
• Lifting burden from women- A combination of childcare infrastructure and parental leave policies will offset the burden on women to facilitate higher maternal employment to population ratio.
• Reducing Income inequalities- India’s average female daily wage was 59 % of the male wage in 1993-94 and improved to 72 %in 2018-19.
• Gender-inclusive economic growth- Women’s unpaid work is valued at 3.1% of GDP in India. Recognizing AWWs, ANMs, ASHAs and domestic help (amongst others), as formal sector workers would allow their economic contribution to be counted in the GDP
• Prevention of “occupational downgrading”- It will help women become less likely to end up with lower pay when looking for flexibility, or part-time roles owing to care work responsibilities.

What is the status of care services?

• Women’s unpaid work is valued at 3.1% of GDP in India.
• In recent years, South Asian countries such as India and Bangladesh have begun investing in physical infrastructure which would improve the provision of care services indirectly.
• India’s Economic Survey 2018-19 anticipates three major shifts in public policy, auguring increased attention to the care economy-
• Declining working-age population- It has called for suitable regional policies to accommodate inter-State migrant labor, increasing the retirement age in a phased manner, and provisioning pensions and other types of retirement benefits.
• Declining school-going population- It has shifted the focus of the National Education Policy 2019 on the merger and consolidation of existing elementary schools and emphasizes on quality of school education.
• An increase in healthy life expectancy has also called attention to developing geriatric care in public health.
• Maternity leave- India offers 26 weeks of maternity leave, against the ILO’s standard mandate of 14 weeks.
• Child care- India has a long history of mandating the provision of creches in factories and establishments but there is limited information on its actual implementation.

Gaps in the current policies?

• Unorganized/ Informal sector- The maternity leave coverage extends to only a tiny proportion of women workers in formal employment in India, where 89% of employed women are in informal employment.
• Paternity Leave- While increasingly being recognized as an enabler for better balance work and family responsibilities, it is not provided in many countries, including India.
• Access to quality and affordable care- Quality Services such as childcare, elderly care and care for people with disabilities is a challenge workers with family responsibilities face globally.
• Implementation gaps- While India has a long history of mandating the provision of crèches in factories and establishments, there is limited information on its actual implementation.
• Domestic Workers- According to the Government’s 2019 estimates, 26 lakh of the 39 lakh domestic workers in India are female. They also face challenges in accessing decent work.

Way Forward

1. Comprehensive care policies– Policies that meet SDGs and can be rooted in ILO’s ‘Decent Work Agenda’ principles that begin with recognizing the value of unpaid care work, reducing the drudgery of work, redistributing responsibilities of care work between women and men, remunerating care workers, and representing their concerns.
2. Strategic Action Plan- In consultation with the relevant stakeholders, the government needs to conceptualize a strategy and action plan for improved care policies, care service provisions and decent working conditions for care workers.
3. Public good- Care work should be viewed as a collective responsibility and public good.
4. Investment- Investing in a combination of childcare infrastructure and parental leave policies will have higher maternal employment to population ratio.
5. Increase spending- India spends less than 1% of its GDP on the care economy; increasing this percentage would unfurl a plethora of benefits for workers and the overall economy.
6. 5 R framework- The ILO proposes a 5R framework for decent care work centered around achieving gender equality. It urges on Recognition, Reduction of unpaid care work, Redistribution of unpaid care work, Rewarding care workers and decent work and Representation in social dialogue and collective bargaining.

Conclusion

Comprehensive care policies demand increased state involvement in investing, formalizing, and regulating the care economy. In addition to providing care benefits, national accounts should also be sensitive to the contribution of unpaid care to economic growth. Gender-sensitive budgeting, satellite accounts, and tax policy are some of the ways in which economic policy can acknowledge and reward care work. Finally, the state would be an important arbiter in engaging with care workers to realize and expand their rights

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Context

Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies have been often thought as a gateway to a future written in chrome, operating on a virtual cloud.

Even in Budget 2022-23, AI was described as a sunrise technology that would “assist sustainable development at scale and modernize the country.”

In terms of climate change, AI can prove to be immensely helpful in developing environment-friendly infrastructure, making climate predictions and decarbonizing industries. However, ironically, AI with itself brings an environmental cost to the development of the technology.

What is Climate Change?

• It deals with the global phenomenon of climate transformation that significantly impacts the earth’s usual climatic conditions (temperature, precipitation, wind, etc.). 
• They are mainly caused due to human-made activities.
• The major source of climate change is global warming, which is primarily caused by the greenhouse effect.
• Rapid urbanization and industrial revolution are the other main causes that lead to the risk of climate change with increased energy demand and production, especially in the form of fossil fuels.
•  The growing risk of climate change has a disastrous impact on earth organisms, including human beings and earth’s flora and fauna.
• It further leads to the destruction of the food chain and economic resources.

Social and Economic Impact of Climate Change

• The cost of adapting coastal areas to rising sea levels.
• Relocation of whole towns.
• Shrinking productivity of harvests.
• Loss of the capacity to work due to heat.
• More wars to gain access to limited resources.
• Freshwater will be short in the supply.
• Spread of diseases due to higher temperatures.
• Inflation in food and consumer goods.
• The extreme meteorological phenomenon will cause widespread poverty.

Artificial Intelligence

• Artificial intelligence is the simulation of human intelligence processes by machines, especially computer systems. Specific applications of AI include expert systems, natural language processing, speech recognition and machine vision.
• In general, AI systems work by ingesting large amounts of labeled training data, analyzing the data for correlations and patterns, and using these patterns to make predictions about future states.
• AI programming focuses on three cognitive skills: learning, reasoning and self-correction.

How can AI help in the mitigation of Climate Change?

• AI is a disruptive paradigm that has greater potential to assess, predict, and mitigate the risk of climate change with the efficient use of data, learning algorithms, and sensing devices.
• It performs a calculation, makes predictions, and takes decisions to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
• By developing effective models for weather forecasting and environmental monitoring, AI makes us better understand the impacts of climate change across various geographical locations.
• It interprets climatic data and predicts weather events, extreme climate conditions, and other socio-economic impacts of climate change and precipitation.
• From a technical perspective, AI offers better climatic predictions, shows the impacts of extreme weather, finds the actual source of carbon emitters and includes numerous other reasonable contributions. 
• This enables the policymakers to be aware of the rising sea levels, earth hazards, hurricanes, temperature change, disruption to natural habitats, and species extinction.

Applications of AI for Climate Change mitigation

The following are the few areas in which AI can directly help mitigate the risks posed by climate change:-

• AI-assisted prediction models for climate change mitigation
• Role of machine vision in climate informatics and forecasting
• Recent trends in AI to reduce carbon footprints for a sustainable environment
• AI for earth hazard management
• AI to promote eco-friendly energy production and consumption
• AI-assisted expert systems for climate change risk prediction and assessment
• AI-assisted big data analytics Synergy of IoT, big data, cloud computing, and AI techniques in climate change prediction and mitigation
• Machine learning for a sustainable green future
• AI in reducing the impacts of global warming
• Deep learning for sustainable earth surveillance and earth informatics

AI Can Accelerate Our Response to Climate Change

• Improve Energy Efficiency– According to the Capgemini Research Institute, artificial intelligence should improve power efficiency by 15% in the next three to five years.
• Optimize Clean Energy Development- AI computational models can find sites for dams that can produce the lowest amounts of GHG emissions.
• Avoid Waste- Companies, governments, and leaders frequently deploy AI solutions to avoid waste, reduce energy waste from buildings or understand supply and demand.
• Make Transportation More Efficient- AI is already the technology that powers autonomous vehicles, including shared cars and smart transportation systems in some cities.
• Tools to Help Understand Carbon Footprint- AI can help build tools to help individuals and companies understand their carbon footprint and what actions they can take to reduce it.
• Create New Low-Carbon Materials- If AI could develop new materials with similar properties but with a smaller carbon footprint, it could help slow climate change.

What are the Global Trends for the Development of AI Technology?

• Unfair Start- A few developed economies possess certain material advantages right from the start, they also set the rules.
• They have an advantage in research and development, and possess a skilled workforce as well as wealth to invest in AI.
• West vs the World- North America and East Asia alone account for three-fourths of global private investment in AI, patents and publications.
• Political Advantage- The current state of inequity in AI in terms of governance raises concerns about the technological fluency of policymakers in developing and underdeveloped countries and their representation and empowerment at the international bodies that set rules and standards on AI.
• Benefits for few- The developing and underdeveloped countries have not been much benefitted by the technology as AI’s social and economic benefits are accruing to a few countries only.

India & AI

• In Budget 2022-23, AI was described as a sunrise technology that would “assist sustainable development at scale and modernize the country.”
• Research ecosystem- India has 386 of a total of 22,000 Ph.D. educated researchers worldwide and ranked 10th globally in research.  AI research concentrated mostly at institutes, like IITs, IIITs and IISc.
• Present Use of AI- Presently, AI is used in India in sectors such as Smart Mobility and Transportation, Healthcare, Agriculture, Education and Smart Cities & Infrastructure.
• AI adoption across sectors-

1. COREs– Centres of Research Excellence in Artificial Intelligence will focus on core research of AI.
2. ICTAI– International Centre for Transformational Artificial Intelligence will provide the ecosystem for application-based technology development and deployment.
3. AIRAWAT (AI research, analytics and knowledge assimilation platform will be a cloud platform for Big Data Analytics and Assimilation, with a large, power-optimized AI Computing infrastructure using advanced AI processing.

AI in India: Opportunities

AI has the potential to drive growth by enabling:

• Intelligent automation i.e. ability to automate complex physical world tasks that require adaptability and agility across industries,
• Labor and capital augmentation: enabling humans to focus on parts of their role that add the most value, complementing human capabilities and improving capital efficiency
• Innovation diffusion i.e. propelling innovations as it diffuses through the economy

What is the Impact of AI Technology on Climate?

• Carbon Footprint- The climate impact of AI can be majorly attributed to the energy use of training and operating large AI models.
• Emissions- In 2020, digital technologies accounted for between 1.8% and 6.3% of global emissions.
• At this same time, AI development and adoption across sectors skyrocketed and so did the demand for processing power associated with larger and larger AI models.
• Quantification– A main problem to tackle in reducing AI’s climate impact is to quantify its energy consumption and carbon emission, and to make this information transparent.
• UNESCO’s Efforts- The idea of sustainability is rapidly entering mainstream debates on AI ethics and sustainable development.
• Recently, UNESCO adopted the Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence, calling on actors to “reduce the environmental impact of AI systems, including but not limited to its carbon footprint.”

Way Forward

• Research: Dedicated studies, more investments in R&D, and better policy interventions are required in this field. AI needs to be developed and deployed so it can meet society’s needs and protect the environment by saving more energy than it expends.
• Technology + Sustainable Development:  To make sure AI is used to help, and not hinder society, it’s time to merge the two big debates of the present time – digital technology and sustainable development (in particular, the environment). If we use the former to save the latter, this could be the best possible use made out of the resources available to us.
• Opportunities for the Developing World: Governments of developing countries, including India, should assess their technology-led growth priorities in the context of AI’s climate costs.
• Recommendation of WEF: The AI developers “must incorporate the health of the natural environment as a fundamental dimension.”

Conclusion

Governments of developing countries, India included, should also assess their technology-led growth priorities in the context of AI’s climate costs. It is argued that as developing nations are not plagued by the legacy infrastructure it would be easier for them to “build up better”. These countries don’t have to follow the same AI-led growth paradigm as their Western counterparts.

It may be worth thinking through what “solutions” would truly work for the unique social and economic contexts of the communities in our global village.

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Context

Sri Lanka’s economic crisis is aggravating rapidly, putting citizens through enormous hardship.

Reasons for the Crisis

The first wave of the pandemic in 2020 offered early and sure signs of distress.

• In-migration: Thousands of Sri Lankan laborers in West Asian countries were left stranded and returned jobless.
• Shut-down: Garment factories and tea estates could not function, as infections raged in clusters. Tourism sector to saw a big dip.
• Domestic job losses: Thousands of youth lost their jobs in cities as establishments abruptly sacked them or shut down.
• Forex decline: It meant that all key foreign exchange earning sectors, such as exports and remittances, along with tourism, were brutally hit.

Policy failures of the Lankan govt

• No strategy: The lack of a comprehensive strategy to respond to the crisis then was coupled with certain policy decisions last year.
• Ill-advised policies: It included the government’s abrupt switch to organic farming —widely deemed “ill-advised”, further aggravated the problem.
• Food hoarding: The government declared emergency regulations for the distribution of essential food items. It put wide import restrictions to save dollars which in turn led to consequent market irregularities and reported hoarding.
• Continuous borrowing: Fears of a sovereign default rose by the end of 2021, with the country’s foreign reserves plummeting to $1.6 billion, and deadlines for repaying external loans looming.

Brief background of India-SL relations

• India is the only neighbor of Sri Lanka, separated by the Palk Strait; both nations occupy a strategic position in South Asia and have sought to build a common security umbrella in the Indian Ocean.
• There are deep racial and cultural links between the two countries. Both share a maritime border.
• The India- SL relations have been however tested by the Sri Lankan Civil War and by the controversy of Indian intervention during the war.
• In recent years Sri Lanka has moved closer to China, especially in terms of naval agreements.
• India has signed a nuclear energy deal to improve relations and made a nuclear energy pact with Sri Lanka in 2015.

India’s role in the Lankan Civil War

• In the 1970s–1980s, the RAW and the state government of Tamil Nadu were believed to be encouraging the funding and training for the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), a separatist insurgent force.
• In 1987, faced with growing anger amongst its own Tamils, and a flood of refugees India intervened directly in the conflict for the first time.
• This was after the Sri Lankan government attempted to regain control of the northern Jaffna region by means of an economic blockade and military assaults; India supplied food and medicine by air and sea.

Why did India intervene?

• Indian intervention in Sri Lankan civil war became inevitable as that civil war threatened India’s unity, national interest and territorial integrity.

Outcomes

• The peace accord assigned a certain degree of regional autonomy in the Tamil areas with a body controlling the regional council and called for the Tamil militant groups to lay down their arms.
• Further India was to send a peacekeeping force, named the IPKF to Sri Lanka to enforce the disarmament and to watch over the regional council.
• The accord failed over the issue of representations. The result was that the LTTE now found itself engaged in military conflict with the Indian Army.

Areas of cooperation

(1) Political Relations

• Regular Exchange: Political relations between the two countries have been marked by high-level exchanges of visits at regular intervals.
• Bilateral Cooperation: A joint statement covering all areas of bilateral cooperation, titled ‘MitratvaMaga’ was issued following the Virtual Summit of 2020.

(2) Commercial Relations

• ISFTA: The India-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement (ISFTA) in 2000 contributed significantly towards the expansion of trade in areas such as infrastructure, connectivity, transportation, housing, health, livelihood and rehabilitation, education, and industrial development.
• Trading Partner: India has traditionally been among Sri Lanka’s largest trade partners and Sri Lanka remains among the largest trade partners of India in the SAARC.
  • In 2020, India was Sri Lanka’s 2nd largest trading partner with the bilateral merchandise trade amounting to about USD $ 3.6 billion.
• India and Sri Lanka are member nations of several regional and multilateral organizations such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), South Asia Co-operative Environment Programme, South Asian Economic Union and BIMSTEC.
• India is Sri Lanka’s third-largest export destination, after the US and UK.
• Exports: Sri Lankan exports to India have increased substantially since 2000 when ISLFTA came into force.

• FDI: India is also one of the largest contributors to Foreign Direct Investment in Sri Lanka. According to BoI, FDI from India amounted to about US$ 1.7 billion during the period 2005 to 2019.

(3) Development Cooperation

• Grants: The overall commitment by GOI is to the tune of more than USD 3.5 billion.
  • Demand-driven and people-centric nature of India’s development partnership with Sri Lanka have been the cornerstone of this relationship. 
• The Indian Housing Project: India has so far committed to construct close to 62,500 houses in Sri Lanka, making it one of the largest projects undertaken by GoI abroad. 
• Emergency Ambulance Service: The Service which was initially launched in July 2016 is now expanded to all the Provinces.
  • At a total cost of more than USD 22.5 million, close to 300 ambulances were provided by GOI under this project.
• Other Projects: India is also involved in projects for renovation of Palaly Airport, Kankesanthurai Harbor, construction of a Cultural Centre in Jaffna, interconnection of electricity grids between the two countries, construction of a 150-bed hospital in Dickoya and setting up a coal power plant in Sampur as a joint venture between National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) and Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB).
• Latest Development: India-SL agreed for joint development of Trincomalee Oil Tank farmed in 2022 after 35 years of wait.

(4) Projects under Lines of Credit

• Sectors: 11 Lines of credit (LOC) have been extended to Sri Lanka by the Export Import Bank of India in the last 15 years.
  • Important sectors under these LOCs include: Railway, transport, connectivity, defense, solar.
• Infrastructure: Some important Projects completed are- supply of defense equipments; up-gradation of the railway line from Colombo to Matara; track laying by IRCON on Omanthai-Pallai sector; reconstruction of the Railway line; signaling and telecommunication system; supply of engine kits for buses, diesel locomotives railways, DMUs, Carrier and fuel tank wagons etc.
• Rehabilitation: A project for the rehabilitation of the Kankesanthurai harbor is being executed under a LOC of USD 45.27 million, bringing immense economic benefits to the Northern region of Sri Lanka.
• Solar Energy: A US$ 100 million LoC for undertaking solar projects in Sri Lanka has been signed for rooftop solar units for Government buildings, rooftop solar units for low-income families and a floating solar power plant.
• Security: In 2019, a LOC of USD 400 million for development and infrastructure projects and USD 50 million for security and counter-terrorism were announced.
  • These LOC Agreements are currently under discussion.

(5) Cultural relations

• India and Sri Lanka have a shared legacy of historical, cultural, religious, spiritual and linguistic ties that is more than 2,500 years old.
• In contemporary times, the Cultural Cooperation Agreement signed by the Government of India and the Government forms the basis for periodic Cultural Exchange Programmes between the two countries.

(6) People-to-people ties: Buddhism

• Buddhism is one of the strongest pillars connecting the two nations and civilizations from the time when Emperor Ashoka sent his children Arhat Mahinda and Sangamitta to spread the teachings of Lord Buddha at the request of King Devanampiya Tissa of Sri Lanka.
• Underlining the deep people-to-people connect and shared Buddhist heritage, the venerated relics of Lord Buddha from Kapilawasthu discovered in 1970 in India have been exhibited two times in Sri Lanka.
• India in 2020, announced USD 15 million grant assistance for the protection and promotion of Buddhist ties between India and Sri Lanka.
  • It may be utilized for the construction/renovation of Buddhist monasteries, education of young monks, strengthening engagement of Buddhist scholars and clergy, development of Buddhist heritage museums, etc.
• Transport- In July 2020, the GoI declared the Kushinagar Airport in India, the place of Lord Buddha’s Mahaparinibbana, as an international airport, to allow Buddhist pilgrims from around the world to visit the revered site associated with Lord Buddha with ease.

• The Swami Vivekananda Cultural Centre (SVCC)– since its inception in 1998, is actively promoting awareness of Indian culture by offering classes in Bharatnatyam, Kathak, Hindustani and Carnatic vocal, Violin, Sitar, Tabla, Hindi and Yoga.

(7) Tourism

• e-Visa- Tourism also forms an important link between India and Sri Lanka. GoI formally launched the e-Tourist Visa (eTV) scheme for Sri Lankan tourists on 14 April 2015.
• Visa Fee- Subsequently, in a goodwill gesture, the visa fee for eTV was sharply reduced. In 2019, out of the total 1.91 million tourists, 355,000 tourists arrived from India.
• Sri Lankan tourists too are among the top ten sources for the Indian tourism market.
• Visa on arrival- On 24 July 2019 Sri Lanka included India in the free visa on arrival scheme and commenced the scheme on 1 August 2019.

Plummeting relations

• The ties began to worsen between the two since February, 2021 when Sri Lanka backed out from a tripartite partnership with India and Japan for its East Container Terminal Project at the Colombo Port, citing domestic issues.
  • However, later, the West Coast Terminal was offered under a public private partnership arrangement to Adani Ports and Special Economic Zones Ltd.
• Sri Lanka in a state of economic emergency: Sri Lanka is running out of foreign exchange reserves for essential imports like food. It has recently declared a state of economic emergency.
• Covid Impact:
  • Sri Lanka increased policy rates after the covid pandemic in response to rising inflation in August 2021 caused by currency depreciation.
  • Tourism sector has suffered since the Easter Sunday terror attacks of 2019, followed by the pandemic.
  • Earnings fell from $3.6 billion in 2019 to $0.7 billion in 2020, even as FDI inflows halved from $1.2 billion to $670 million over the same period.
  • Sri Lanka’s fragile liquidity situation has put it at high risk of debt distress. Its public debt-to-GDP ratio was at 109.7% in 2020, and its gross financing needs remain high at 18% of GDP.
  • Its gross official reserves slipped to $2.8 billion, which is equivalent to just 1.8 months of imports. More than $2.7 billion of foreign currency debt will be due in the next two years.

Major outstanding issues

 Fishing disputes

• There have been several alleged incidents of Sri Lankan Navy personnel firing on Indian fishermen fishing in the Palk Strait, where India and Sri Lanka are only separated by 12 nautical miles.
• The issue started because of Indian fishermen having used mechanized trawlers, which deprived the Sri Lankan fishermen (including Tamils) of their catch and damaged their fishing boats.
• The Sri Lankan government wants India to ban use of mechanized trawlers in the Palk Strait region, and negotiations on this subject are undergoing.
• So far, no concrete agreement has been reached since India favors regulating these trawlers instead of banning them altogether.

Alleged political interference

• A media report from Colombo soon after Rajapaksa’s defeat in the January 8 elections of 2015 had said that an Indian Intelligence official was instrumental in uniting rival political parties — the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the United National Party (UNP) — against him during the polls.
• In October 2018, President Sirisena alleged that Indian intelligence agencies were plotting his assassination.

Katchatheevu Island

• It is an uninhabited island that India ceded to Sri Lanka in 1974 based on a conditional agreement called “Kachchativu island pact”.
• Later on, Sri Lanka declared Katchatheevu, a sacred land given the presence of a Catholic shrine.
• But Tamil Nadu claimed that Katchatheevu falls under the Indian Territory and Tamil fishermen have traditionally believed that it belongs to them and therefore want to preserve the right to fish there.

China factor

• Sri Lanka has a history of taking independent decisions even if they cause misgivings in India.
• In the period of low profile relationship between the two nations, Sri Lanka apparently started favoring China over India.
• China is Sri Lanka’s largest bilateral creditor: China’s loans to the Sri Lankan public sector amounted to 15% of the central government’s external debt, making China the largest bilateral creditor to the country.
  • Sri Lanka has increasingly relied on Chinese credit to address its foreign debt burden.
• China’s Exports surpasses India: China’s exports to Sri Lanka surpassed those of India in 2020 and stood at $3.8 billion.
  • India’s exports were $3.2 billion.
• Infrastructural Investment by China: Owing to Sri Lanka’s strategic location at the intersection of major shipping routes, China’s investment stands at $12 billion between 2006 and 2019.
  • Unable to service its debt, in 2017, Sri Lanka lost the unviable Hambantota port to China for a 99-year lease.
  • Sri Lanka passed the Colombo Port City Economic Commission Act, which provides for establishing a special economic zone around the port and also a new economic commission, to be funded by China.
  • The Colombo port is crucial for India as it handles 60% of India’s trans-shipment cargo.
• Shifting interests due to economic crisis: Sri Lanka’s economic crisis may further push it to align its policies with Beijing’s interests.
  • This comes at a time when India is already on a diplomatic tightrope with Afghanistan and Myanmar.
  • Other South Asian nations like Bangladesh, Nepal and the Maldives have also been turning to China to finance large-scale infrastructure projects.

Why is Sri Lanka important to India?

• India is Sri Lanka’s closest neighbor. Both sides have built upon a legacy of intellectual, cultural, religious and linguistic interaction.
• Sri Lanka has always been politically and economically important to India given its strategic geographical position in the Indian Ocean. The relationship has been marked by close contacts at all levels.
• Sri Lanka sits at the epicenter of the arc connecting the Persian Gulf to the Strait of Malacca. An island nation with an economy that’s mainly reliant on tourism and tea exports, Sri Lanka’s blessed geography puts it at a crucial juncture of the busy shipping lanes of the Indian Ocean.
• India also has a vital strategic stake in Sri Lanka for its own security interests. An unfriendly Sri Lanka or a Sri Lanka under influence of a power unfriendly to India would strategically discomfit India.
• For the Indian Navy, Sri Lanka is important as the switching of naval fleets from the Bay of Bengal to the Arabian Sea and vice versa requires the fleets to go around the island nation.
• Both countries share a common broad understanding on major issues of international interest and experience common social-political problems relating to community divides.

What does Sri Lanka expect from India?

• The humanitarian work by Indian agencies like supplies of medicines, doctors and providing refuge to more than 3 lakhs IDP’s during the decade-old civil war has created a sense of mutual cooperation among the countries natives.
• SL is one of the leading recipients of India’s Line of Credits.
• India has always rushed for the relief at the first signs of the rains and floods in SL recently. SL still commends the post-tsunami HADR relief operations carried out by India in the end-2004.
• India’s military, intelligence and security establishment has maintained its relations with its Sri Lankan counterpart, and both sides have been on the same page at all times.
• The security environment in the neighborhood will be discussed in light of the 21 April Easter Church bombings, and lessons learned from it.
• India is also the largest provider of defense training programs for Sri Lankan soldiers and Defence officials.

A greater role for India

 (1) Gathering convergence towards SL

• Delhi needs to invest some political capital in resolving problems such as the long-standing dispute over fisheries.
• Beyond its objection to China’s BRI projects, Delhi, either alone or in partnership with like-minded countries like Japan, should offer sustainable terms for infrastructure development.
• Delhi also needs to contribute more to the development of Colombo’s defence and counter-terror capabilities.

(2) Answering the Tamil Question

• The second structural factor shaping India’s relations with Sri Lanka is the Tamil question.
• Delhi has certainly learned the dangers of being drawn too deep into the domestic conflicts of neighboring countries.
• If the new government in Colombo can advance reconciliation with the Tamil minority, it will be easier for India to strengthen ties with the Gotabaya government.

(3) No china factor indeed

• Labeling governments in Sri Lanka as “pro-China” or “pro-India” is irrelevant. It is evident that China’s economic and strategic salience in the subcontinent is not tied to the regime leadership.
• Previous Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena who considered as pro-India came to power criticizing the Chinese projects in Sri Lanka, but within two years into power, it extended full backing to the Chinese projects.

(4) Harnessing the ray of hope

• Our challenges in Sri Lanka will continue, but we are off to a good start with the new government.
• The new president has made repeated statements that his government would like Sri Lanka to be a “neutral country” and that “Sri Lanka won’t do anything that will harm India’s interests.”
• Gotabaya was also critical of the previous government giving Hambantota Port on a 99-year lease to China.
• He went on to add that giving land as investment for developing a hotel or a commercial property was not a problem but the strategically important, economically important harbor, giving that is not acceptable.
• The Rajapaksas have acknowledged that India has not interfered in the recent elections.
• The first visit abroad by Gotabaya Rajapaksa to India has its own symbolic significance, translating into a diplomatic gesture his statement to the EAM that while China is a trade partner, India is a relative.

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Context

The Prime Minister of Nepal made his first bilateral visit abroad to India since taking his oath in July 2021. The visit was a success in terms of launching connectivity projects and signing Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs). Bilateral dialogues, strengthened economic connections and more sensitization towards the people of Nepal is what India needs to pursue to fulfil the objectives of its ‘neighborhood first policy’.

Historical Background

• Ancient ties: The relationship between India and Nepal goes back to the times of the rule of the Sakya clan and Gautama Buddha.
  • Initially, Nepal was under tribal rule and only with the coming of Licchavi rule in Nepal did its feudal era truly begin.
• Cultural relations: From 750 to 1750 AD period saw a shift from Buddhism to Hinduism in Nepal and witnessed widespread cultural diffusion.
  • India and Nepal share similar ties in terms of Hinduism and Buddhism with Buddha’s birthplace Lumbini located in present-day Nepal.
• India-Nepal Treaty of Peace and Friendship of 1950 forms the bedrock of the special relations that exist between India and Nepal.
• Nepal is an important neighbor of India and occupies a special significance in its foreign policy because of the geographic, historical, cultural and economic linkages/ties that span centuries.
• In recent years, India’s relations with Nepal have witnessed some ‘lows’. 
  • The relationship between the two took a nosedive in 2015, with India first getting blamed for interfering in the Constitution drafting process and then for an “unofficial blockade” that generated widespread resentment against India.

Highlights of the recent visit

• Important Projects in discussion:
  • The operationalization of the 35 kilometre cross-border rail link from Jayanagar (Bihar) to Kurtha (Nepal) will be further extended to Bijalpura and Bardibas.
  • The 90 km long 132 kV double circuit transmission line connecting Tila (Solukhumbu) to Mirchaiya (Siraha) is close to the Indian border.
• Agreements signed:
  • Agreements providing technical cooperation in the railway sector, 
  • Nepal’s induction into the International Solar Alliance,  becoming the 105th country to become a signatory to the Framework Agreement of the ISA.
  • Between Indian Oil Corporation and Nepal Oil Corporation ensuring regular supplies of petroleum products were also signed.
• India called for taking full advantage of opportunities in the power sector, including through joint development of power generation projects in Nepal and the development of cross-border transmission infrastructure.
• Launch of Indian RuPay card in Nepal: This would open new vistas for cooperation in financial connectivity, and is expected to facilitate bilateral tourist flows as well as further strengthen people-to-people linkages between India and Nepal.

Various facets of India-Nepal ties

1. Cultural ties

• While enjoying their own peculiarities, both India and Nepal share a common culture and ways of life.
• Religion is perhaps the most important factor and plays a predominant role in shaping the cultural relations between these two countries, marked by a cross country pilgrimage on Char Dham Yatra, Pashupatinath Temple and some Buddhist sites.
• A considerable section of Nepalese comprises of Madhesi population which has familial & ethnic ties with states of Bihar, UP.

2. Strategic ties

• Nepal is a buffer state between India and China.
• Several Nepali Citizens are also deployed in Indian defence forces as well.

3. Political ties

• Constitutional turmoil is not new in Nepal. India has played a vital role in the democratic transition in Nepal against the monarch King Gyanendra.
• Nepali Congress (NC) is one of the country’s oldest parties which supports relations with India, but the communist parties show a tilt towards China.

4. Economic ties

• Nepal is an important export market for India. India is Nepal’s largest trading partner.
• Himalayan rivers flowing through Nepal can be used for Hydroelectric power projects which will benefit border states of UP, Bihar and other adjacent areas.
• There are three major water deals between Nepal and India, namely the Kosi Agreement, the Gandak Treaty and the Mahakali Treaty. India also exports Power to Nepal.
• Also, Nepal is the largest borrower of Indian Currency in South Asia.
• Nepal has escalating trade deficit with India. Nepal and India have concluded bilateral Treaty of Transit, Treaty of Trade and the Agreement of Cooperation to Control Unauthorized Trade.

5. Connectivity

• The 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship was sought by the Nepali authorities in 1949 to provide for an open border and for Nepali nationals to have the right to work in India.
• The BBIN Motor Vehicles Agreement (MVA) in which Nepal is a partner will permit the member states to ply their vehicles in each other’s territory for transportation of cargo and passengers.

6. Multilateral and Regional Fora

• Both Nepal and India work in tandem in the United Nations, Non-aligned Movement and other international fora on most of the important international issues.
• Both the countries have been deeply engaged in the regional and sub-regional frameworks of SAARC, BIMSTEC and BBIN for enhancing cooperation for greater economic integration.

China’s role in Nepal – a matter of concern

• Once considered a buffer state between India and China, Nepal is now showing an inclination towards Beijing. China is trying to stimulate and tempt Nepal with multiple aids, economic growth and acquisition.
• China is pursuing a more assertive foreign policy and considers Nepal as an important element in its growing South Asian footprint and being a key partner in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
• In 2016, Nepal negotiated an Agreement on Transit Transportation with China and in 2017, China provided a military grant of $32 million to Nepal.
• In 2019, a Protocol was concluded with China providing access to four seaports and three land ports to Nepal. China is also engaged with airport expansion projects at Pokhara and Lumbini.
• China has overtaken India as the largest source of foreign direct investment with the annual development assistance being worth $120 million.
• Recently, the ratification of the Pancheshwar Multipurpose project saw street protests and big-time social media campaigns supported by China.

Indo-Nepal Border Disputes

India and Nepal share about an 1800 Km long border. There are 2 major border or territorial disputes:

1) Kalapani

• The Kali River in the Kalapani region demarcates the border between India and Nepal.
• The Treaty of Sugauli signed by the Kingdom of Nepal and British India (after the Anglo-Nepalese War) in 1816 located the Kali River as Nepal’s western boundary with India.
• The discrepancy in locating the source of the Kali River led to boundary disputes between India and Nepal, with each country producing maps supporting their own claims.
• However, India has control of Kalapani since the 1962 Indo-Sina War.
  • Kalapani is a valley that is administered by India as a part of the Pithoragarh district of Uttarakhand. It is situated on the Kailash Mansarovar route.

Why is Lipulekh important for India?

• For India, the Lipulekh pass has security implications.
• After its disastrous 1962 border war with China, it was concerned about a possible Chinese intrusion through the pass and has been keen to hold on to the strategic Himalayan route to guard against any future incursions.
• The link road via Lipulekh Himalayan Pass is also considered one of the shortest and most feasible trade routes between India and China.

2) Susta Region

• It is about 140 sq. km of land in Uttar Pradesh at the Nepal border in the Terai area. India has control of the territory. Nepal claims this territory.
• The change of course by the Gandak river is the main reason for disputes in the Susta area.
• Susta is located on the bank of the Gandak river.

• It is called the Narayani river in Nepal.
• It joins Ganga near Patna, Bihar.

Issue of Simultaneous floods in Bihar and Nepal

• Some of Nepal’s biggest river systems originate in the Himalayan glaciers which then flow into India through Bihar.
• During the monsoons, these river systems flood causing many problems for Bihar.
• It is a necessity that there is process-driven coordination between the Centre and the Government of Bihar to handle the flooding in Nepal’s Terai and North Bihar (largely the Mithilanchal region).

Which are those flooding rivers?

• Nepal’s three biggest river systems—Kosi, Gandaki and Karnali—originate in the high mountain glaciers, flow through the country and then enter India through the state of Bihar.
• During the monsoon season, these river systems often get flooded due to heavy rains/landslides in Nepal which create floods in India’s most flood-prone state—Bihar.

Why Nepal is Important to India?

1. It acts as a strategic buffer against the aggression of China.
2. The Pakistan factor: peddling of FICN, drugs and terrorism through the Indo-Nepal border. It makes the cooperation of Nepal important.
3. India and Nepal share common culture: There are huge Nepali communities in Darjeeling and Sikkim. Many marital relations across the border exist.
4. National Security: There is a lot of interdependence. Gurkha Regiment in Indian Army is known for its valiance.
   • Nepal could play in the hands of China which could be detrimental to Indian interests. Hence they need to be kept as close as possible.
5. Ministry of External Affairs term India-Nepal Relation as “Roti-Beti ka Rishta” (Relation of food and marriage)
6. Energy Security: Nepal has the potential of 80 GW of hydroelectricity. But only 600 MW potential is realized so far.
   • Nepal’s lack of cooperation in this regard has hindered development. The surplus could be used for Indian border states.

Major Irritants in bilateral ties

1) Nepali nationalism and Anti-India sentiments

• Anti-India Sentiment in Nepal is largely politically motivated as it is wrongly perceived as India’s backing to Monarchy.
• The widening gap in understanding each other’s concerns has helped feed Nepali nationalism and create a dense cloud of distrust and suspicion between the two countries.
• The gap widened after India chose to impose an economic blockade in response to Nepal’s sovereign decision to promulgate a democratic constitution.

2) China factor

• Increasing Chinese presence in Nepal is one of the major concerns for India. China’s move to extend the rail link to its border with Nepal can reduce its dependence on India.
• Fundamentally these Chinese agencies are building up anti-India sentiments in Nepal.
• Nepal’s assent for the ‘One Belt One Region’ (OBOR) initiative of China is viewed by India with suspicion.
• Nepal has been slowly fallen prey to China’s inroad debt trap policy.

3) India has ignored the changing political narrative for long

• The reality is that India has ignored the changing political narrative in Nepal for far too long.
• For too long India has invoked a “special relationship”, based on shared culture, language and religion, to anchor its ties with Nepal.
• The 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship which was sought by the Nepali authorities in 1949 is viewed as a sign of an unequal relationship, and an Indian imposition.

4) Open borders

• The issue of open borders has also been a point of debate in Nepal in recent years- Nepalese people argue that India is benefiting more from it than Nepal.
• It has an open border with India which leads to problems such as illegal migrants, counterfeit currency entry, drug and human trafficking.

5) Madhesis Issue

• Madhesis share extensive cross-border ethnic and linguistic links with India. India’s involvement in Nepali politics and the upsurge in Madhesi have deep roots in history and unless resolved.
• Madhesis protest and India’s blockade soured the relations for the worst.

Way Forward

1) Dialogues for Territorial Disputes

• In the best spirit of friendship, Nepal and India should restart the water dialogue and come up with policies to safeguard the interests of all those who have been affected on both sides of the border.
• India needs to be a sensitive and generous partner for the neighbourhood first policy to take root.
• The dispute shall be negotiated diplomatically under the aegis of International law on Trans-boundary Water Disputes.

2) Sensitising Towards Nepal

• The onus is on India to rethink on a long-term basis how to recalibrate its relationship with Nepal provided Nepal should not ignore its relations with India.
• It should maintain the policy of keeping away from the internal affairs of Nepal, meanwhile, in the spirit of friendship, India should guide the nation towards more inclusive rhetoric.

3) Strengthening Economic Ties

• The power trade agreement needs to be such that India can build trust in Nepal. Despite more renewable energy projects (solar) coming up in India, hydropower is the only source that can manage peak demand in India.
• For India, buying power from Nepal would mean managing peak demand and also saving the billions of dollars of investments that would have to be invested in building new power plants, many of which would cause pollution.

4) Investments from India

• The Bilateral Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (BIPPA) signed between India and Nepal needs more attention from Nepal’s side.
• The private sector in Nepal, especially the cartels in the garb of trade associations, are fighting tooth and nail against foreign investments.
• It is important that Nepal conveys this message that it welcomes Indian investments.

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Context

Russia’s war on Ukraine has decisively shaped international opinion. Indian foreign policy is also going to be affected in a profound manner.

India-Russia Relation – Background

• India and Russia have enjoyed good relations since 1947 wherein Russia helped India in attaining its goal of economic self-sufficiency through investment in areas of heavy machine-building, mining, energy production and steel plants.
• India and the Soviet Union signed the Treaty of Peace and Friendship in August 1971 which was the manifestation of the shared goals of the two nations as well as a blueprint for the strengthening of regional and global peace and security.
• After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, India and Russia entered into a new Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in January 1993 and a bilateral Military-Technical Cooperation agreement in 1994.
• In 2000 both countries established a Strategic Partnership. In 2010, the Strategic Partnership was elevated to the level of a “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership”.

Bilateral Relations and Areas of Cooperation

(1) Political Relations

• The Annual Summit meeting between the Prime Minister of India and the President of the Russian Federation is the highest institutionalized dialogue mechanism in the strategic partnership between India and Russia. 1
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin held their first informal Summit in the city of Sochi in the Russian Federation on May 21, 2018
• Russia recently awarded PM Narendra Modi Russia’s highest state decoration – The order of St Andrew the Apostle.
• Two Inter-Governmental Commissions – one on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation (IRIGC-TEC), and another on Military-Technical Cooperation (IRIGC- MTC), meet annually.

(2) Economic Relations

• Bilateral trade between both countries is concentrated in key value-chain sectors.
• These sectors include highly diversified segments such as machinery, electronics, aerospace, automobile, commercial shipping, chemicals, pharmaceuticals etc.
• The two countries intend to increase bilateral investment to US$50 billion and bilateral trade to US$30 billion by 2025.
• In 2019, total bilateral trade between the two countries from January-September, 2019 stood at USD 7.55 billion.
• Top imports: Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products, pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, precious metals, nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances, electrical machinery, fertilizers, etc.

• Top Exports: Pharmaceutical products,        electrical machinery and equipment, organic chemicals, vehicles other than railway or tramway rolling stock, etc.

(3) Defence partnership 

• India-Russia military-technical cooperation has evolved from a buyer-seller framework to one involving joint research, development and production of advanced defense technologies and systems.
• The first-ever Tri-Services exercise –‘INDRA 2017’ took place in Vladivostok from October 19 to 29, 2017.
• It has provided significant enhancement to India’s indigenous defense manufacturing.
• Some of the major defense collaboration programs are: the BrahMos Cruise Missile program, Sukhoi Su-30 and Tactical Transport Aircraft.

(4) Energy Security 

• In the Energy sector, Russia has built nuclear reactors in India (Kudankulam reactors), adopted a strategic vision in nuclear energy, and offered oil, gas and investment opportunities in the fuel sector of Russia e.g., Sakhalin I, etc.
• India and Russia secure the potential of designing a nuclear reactor specifically for developing countries, which is a promising area of cooperation.
• India’s nuclear power generation capacity of 6,780 MW may increase to 22,480 MW by 2031, contributing to the country’s efforts to turn to green energy.
• Cooperation between the two countries in energy transformation can be seen from the joint venture between India’s Reliance Industries Ltd. and Russia’s Sibur, the country’s largest petrochemicals producer.
• Both sides are considering the possibilities of building a hydrocarbon pipeline system, connecting the Russian Federation with India.

(5) Space technology 

• India and Russia have a four-decade strong relationship in the field of space.
• The former Soviet Union launched India’s first two satellites, Aryabhata and Bhaskar.
• Russia has provided India with Cryogenic technology to build heavy rockets. Historically, there has been a long history of cooperation between the Soviet Union and India in space.
• In Nov 2007, the two countries have signed an agreement on joint lunar exploration.
• Chandrayaan-2 was a joint lunar exploration mission proposed by the ISRO and the Russian Federal Space Agency (RKA).
• Both are collaborating for the scheduled Gaganyaan Mission.

(6) Global Partnership 

• Russia has supported India’s bid for a permanent seat in UNSC.
• It has been favoring Indian entry to the Nuclear Supplier Group.
• Both countries coordinate each other over various forums including BRICS, SCO, G20, etc.

(7) Cultural Cooperation 

• From people-to-people contacts (through programs like ‘Namaste Russia’) to sharing educational brilliance of both the countries through institutes like Jawaharlal Nehru Cultural Centre, both the countries have had good cultural links
• There is a strong interest among Russian people in Indian dance, music, yoga and Ayurveda
• As Russia and India both desire a multi-polar world, they are equally important for each other in fulfilling each other’s national interests. However, due to the changing geopolitical scenario, the relationship between both countries is not as good as it used to be in the cold war era.

Recent trends in bilateral ties

• Despite the best efforts divergences are growing in this bilateral relationship as the underlying structural changes in the international environment are pulling the two nations apart.
• Even in the past, the duo have tried to ground their bilateral relations in the wider realities of changing the global balance of power.
• Now with the US upending the rules of global governance, there is renewed concern that their foreign policies need greater coordination if only to preserve their equities in the global order.
• India, of course, has a long-standing relationship with Russia but that is undergoing a shift in light of rapidly evolving geopolitical realities.

Bilateral divergence

• While the top leadership of the two nations have continued to engage with each other, divergences have been cropping up with disturbing regularity.
• For India, what should be concerning is Russia’s increasing tilt towards Pakistan as it seeks to curry favor with China.
• Moscow had historically supported New Delhi at the United Nations Security Council by repeatedly vetoing resolutions on the Kashmir issue.

(1) Military-defence Complex

• Russia is the dominant supplier of arms to India, with the historic military and defence ties between the two countries continuing to serve as one of the cornerstones of the India-Russia relationship.
• Strains are becoming apparent as India moves further along the path of military indigenization and import diversification.
• India’s procurement from the US and France has also been seen as a heated divergence between the two.
• This was a result of the unreliability of Russian supplies, as manifested in late arrivals, defective parts, and perennial conflicts overpricing and warranties.

(2) Cultural Vacuum

• On an everyday level, while Indian films and yoga are popular in Russia, no parallel exposure to any aspect of Russian popular culture exists among Indians.
• This is the most woefully neglected aspect of their relationship, suffering on both sides from lack of funding and, no less important, a shortage of political will.
• Another aspect of ties is tourism which could be much more vigorous between the two countries than present India’s US affinity.

(3) India-US ties

• Rapidly expanding ties and growing defence relationship between India and US, and India joining QUAD group led by the US has led to a strategic shift in Russia’s foreign policy, pushing it to align with China.
• The signing of the long-awaited Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) and other security related agreements, is set to elevate the bilateral defence partnership and give India access to advanced U.S. defence systems.
• Another successful deliverable for India is Washington’s solidarity on the issue of terrorism expressed during the talks.
• The two sides “called on Pakistan to ensure that the territory under its control is not used to launch terrorist attacks on other countries.
• However, a closer engagement with the U.S. is a challenge for India, as this relationship is not likely to be a partnership of equals, for the foreseeable future.

(4) One Dimensional Trade

• India Russia trade has been mostly restricted to defence trade.
• Other challenges in boosting trade – number of issues that hinder India-Russia trade, like, connectivity issues, distance, weak banking links, cumbersome regulations on both sides and Russia’s restrictive visa regime.

(5) Change in Russia’s foreign policy posture 

• Russia is tilting toward Pakistan, China, and even recognizing the Taliban.

• Pakistan – conducted military exercise; signed a military-technical cooperation agreement for arms supply and weapon development.
• China – increasing strategic military relations between the two nations; Russia selling advanced military technology to China; endorsing China’s One Belt One Road initiative.

(6) Differences over the Indo-Pacific

• Both India and Russia have a difference of opinion in understanding the concept of the Indo-Pacific.

• Russia opposes the term Indo-Pacific as the term is primarily a US-led initiative aimed to contain China and Russia.
• Russia does not accept the concept of QUAD. Instead, Russia supports the concept of Asia Pacific.

Steps taken to address the downturn in the relationship

• Sochi Informal Summit 2018: The strategic partnership between the two has been elevated into a “special privileged strategic partnership”.
• Reinforced defense ties: both countries finalized Su-400 air defense systems and nuclear-powered submarine (Chakra III) deal, construction of Ka-226 helicopters in India under the Make in India initiative.
• Improving Trade Relations: India Russia Strategic Economic Dialogue was started in 2018 to achieve the target of $30 billion investment goal by 2025 between both countries
• India participated in the Eastern Economic Forum (2020) which aims to support the economic development of Russia’s resource-rich Far East.
• India has extended a $1 billion line of credit for the development of this region. Also, the proposal for a maritime route between Chennai and Vladivostok has been made.
• Strengthening Energy cooperation: Cooperation in the development of oil in Russia including its arctic shelf and joint development of projects on the shelf of the Pechora and Okhotsk Seas.
  • For increasing connectivity, both sides called for the development of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

Potential Areas for Deepening Ties

• Connectivity: There is scope for improvement in trade between Russia and India if the international North-South corridor through Iran and the Vladivostok-Chennai Sea route can be operationalized.
• Technology: India can benefit from hi-tech cooperation with Russia in the fields of artificial intelligence, robotics, biotechnology, outer space, and nanotechnology.
• Education, R&D: India can also cooperate with Russia on upgrading its basic research and education facilities. 
• Diversifying Economic Engagement: Apart from traditional areas of cooperation such as weapons, hydrocarbons, nuclear energy, and diamonds, new sectors of economic engagement are likely to emerge – mining, agro-industrial, and high technology, including robotics, nanotech, and biotech.
  • Mutual benefits in the trade of natural resources such as timber and agriculture can also be harnessed.

Why is Russia Important to India?

• Russia’s status in the international sphere: Russia remains, and will remain a pre-eminent nuclear and energy power and a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council
• Multipolar World Politics: Since the world is becoming increasingly multipolar, maintaining close and strategic relations with Russia and the US at the same time is indispensable for India. A strong partnership with Russia provides India with leverages to deal with other countries.
• Support for UNSC seat: Russia has stated publicly that it supports India receiving a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. 
• Counterbalance to China Aggression: India has no option but to have a close relationship both with the US and Russia and to manage its difficult relationship with China. 
  • So long as Russia’s relationship with the West remains strained, Russia will look toward China. So long as Sino-Indian relations remain troubled, Russia’s going into the Chinese sphere of influence will not suit India.
• India’s energy security: India to look toward Russia as an alternative source of energy supplies as the situation in the Middle East is escalating with threats to essential oil trade routes
• Important Technology supplier: Russia can help India build its technological potential by providing access to its technologies, especially in defense technology and nuclear technology.

Recent Developments

As Russia declares war on Ukraine, the impact will also be on the recovering economies around the world, including India.

India’s position on the Ukraine issue

•  New Delhi has taken a subtle pro-Moscow position on the question of Russian attacks against Ukraine.
• A geopolitical necessity: India’s Russia tilt should be seen not just as a product of its time-tested friendship with Moscow but also as a geopolitical necessity.
• China problem: India’s problem is China, and it needs both the U.S./the West and Russia to deal with the “China problem”.

Implications of war on Ukraine for India

• It will embolden China: Russian action in Ukraine dismissing the concerns of the rest of the international community including the U.S. will no doubt embolden China and its territorial ambitions.
• Sanctions on Russia will impact India’s defense cooperation: The new sanctions regime may have implications for India’s defense cooperation with Moscow.
• Russia-China axis: The longer the standoff lasts, the closer China and Russia could become, which certainly does not help India.
• The focus will move away from Indo-Pacific: The more severe the U.S.-Russia rivalry becomes, the less focus there would be on the Indo-Pacific and China, which is where India’s interests lie.

Way Forward

• India and Russia have to identify their strengths and common concerns like developing joint projects in third countries. 
  • Such as the involvement of India and Russia in the Rooppur nuclear plant project in Bangladesh.
• Focus on Eurasia: India and Russia have to explore their opportunities in the Eurasian region.
  • India can study the possibility of expanding Russia’s idea of an “extensive Eurasian partnership”.
• India must take advantage of Russia’s capacity in helping India to become self-sufficient in Defence.
  • For example, India’s collaboration with Russia in the Brahmos Missile made India export such missiles to countries like the Philippines.
• India needs to balance its relationship between Russia, China, and the US: This is essential after the US conducted a Freedom of Navigation operation (FONOP) in India’s Exclusive Economic Zone.
• India has to utilise the scientific and technological base in Russia for the development of India’s problems.
• Cooperation at Multilateral Forums: strengthening ties through various multilateral organizations including BRICS, RIC, G20, East Asia Summit, and SCO – where avenues for cooperation on issues of mutual importance exist.
• Engaging Russia in Indo-Pacific narrative: India should pursue and facilitate Russia’s engagement in the Indo-Pacific.
  • Russia’s active engagement in the region would contribute to making the Indo-Pacific truly “free and inclusive”.
• Prioritizing RIC in Indian Foreign Policy: India must promote mutually beneficial trilateral cooperation between Russia, India, and China, which could contribute to the reduction of mistrust and suspicion between the three countries.

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Context

The theme of this year’s World Water Day was ‘Groundwater: Making the Invisible Visible’. The primary focus is to draw attention to the role of groundwater in water and sanitation systems, agriculture, industry, ecosystems, and climate change adaptation. Groundwater helps reduce the risk of temporary water shortage and caters to the needs of arid and semiarid regions, but its value has not been fully recognized in policymaking. Due to its high storage capacity, groundwater is more resilient to the effects of climate change than surface water. The international conference on ‘Groundwater, Key to the Sustainable Development Goals’ and the UN­Water Summit on Groundwater are part of global initiatives to highlight the significance of groundwater in sustainable development.

Important Facts

• Estimates: 85% of the rural and 50% of the urban population in India is dependent on groundwater for fulfilling their needs.
• With an annual groundwater extraction of 248.69 billion cubic meters (2017), India is among the largest users of groundwater in the world.
• Almost 89% of the groundwater extracted is used for irrigation and the rest for domestic and industrial use (9% and 2%).
• High water stress: India is one of 17 countries facing extremely high water stress, according to a report by the World Resources Institute.
  • According to the Fifth Minor Irrigation Census, the groundwater level in India has declined by 61 percent between 2007 and 2017. It was further observed that more than 1,000 blocks in India have become water-stressed.
• Composite Water Management Index (CWMI), 2018 by NITI Aayog: The water demand will exceed the supply by 2050. Groundwater in India depleted at 10-25 mm per year between 2002 and 2016.
  • 54 percent of India’s groundwater wells are declining.
  • It added that about 40% of India’s population possibly would have no access to drinking water by 2030.
• Extraction value: According to the Central Ground Water Board, the annual groundwater withdrawal is considered to be safe when the extraction rate is limited to below 70% of the annual replenishable recharge.
  • Available data indicate that the level of extraction for the country in 2017 was 63%, from 58% in 2004.
• Variation across regions: However, the level varied across regions. Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh, Himachal Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry have crossed the 70% mark.
  • Of 534 districts in 22 States/UTs, 202 districts had stage of extraction ranging from 71% to 385%. NITI Aayog has set the 70% extraction value as the target to be achieved by 2030.
  • Recent studies suggest that groundwater levels are declining in several parts of northern India, especially in regions of high population densities.
• Quality concern: A quantity­wise safe district may be vulnerable due to deterioration of water quality. Fluoride, iron, salinity, nitrate, and arsenic contamination are major problems.
  • As many as 335 districts reported nitrate pollution compared to 109 in 2006. A high level of nitrate affects human health.
  • Sources of nitrates are mainly anthropogenic and depend on local actions.
  • Biological contamination has also been reported from different parts of the country.

Reasons for Depletion

• Increased demand for water for domestic, industrial and agricultural needs and limited surface water resources lead to the over-exploitation of groundwater resources.
• Limited storage facilities owing to the hard rock terrain, along with the added disadvantage of lack of rainfall, especially in central Indian states.
• Green Revolution enabled water-intensive crops to be grown in drought-prone/ water deficit regions, leading to over-extraction of groundwater.
• Frequent pumping of water from the ground without waiting for its replenishment leads to quick depletion.
• Subsidies on electricity and high MSP for water-intensive crops is also leading reasons for depletion.
• Water contamination as in the case of pollution by landfills, septic tanks, leaky underground gas tanks, and overuse of fertilizers and pesticides leads to damage and depletion of groundwater resources.
• Inadequate regulation of groundwater laws encourages the exhaustion of groundwater resources without any penalty.
• Deforestation, unscientific methods of agriculture, chemical effluents from industries, and lack of sanitation also lead to pollution of groundwater, making it unusable.
• Natural causes include uneven rainfall and climate change that are hindering the process of groundwater recharge.

Impact

• Lowering of the water table: Groundwater depletion may lower the water table leading to difficulty in extracting groundwater for usage.
• Reduction of water in streams and lakes: A substantial amount of the water flowing in rivers comes from seepage of groundwater into the streambed. Depletion of groundwater levels may reduce water flow in such streams.
• Subsidence of land: Groundwater often provides support to the soil. When this balance is altered by taking out the water, the soil collapses, compacts, and drops leading to subsidence of land.
• Increased cost for water extraction: As the depleting groundwater levels lower the water table, the user has to delve deep to extract water. This will increase the cost of water extraction.

• Contamination of groundwater: Groundwater that is deep within the ground often intermingles with saltwater that we shouldn’t drink.

• Constraints in food supply: If groundwater availability faces difficulties then there will be hindrances in agricultural production leading to a shortage of food.
• Limitations to biodiversity and creation of sinkholes: Water table plays a major role in sustaining biodiversity. Often, sinkholes are created when the water table lowers. These sinkholes are dangerous for buildings and towers.

Policy challenges

• Estimation of groundwater resources: There is a lack of data available for estimation of groundwater sources and even if they are available, they are indicative and not representative.
• Crop pricing and water-intensive crops: Decisions such as cropping pattern and cropping intensity are taken independent of the groundwater availability in most areas.
  • Minimum Support Price (MSP) is also available for water-intensive crops leading to widespread cultivation of such crops.
• Energy subsidies: The challenge is to find a balance between the needs of farmers and the need to ensure the sustainable use of groundwater.
• Inadequate regulation: Lack of proper regulations and their further implementation has been one of the major challenges in managing groundwater levels in India.
• Lack of local management: There is a lack of local management of groundwater resources. Local communities have an important role to play in groundwater management and there is a need for devolution of power for local management of such resources.

Government initiatives

(1) National Water Policy (2012) by Department of Water Resources, River Development & Ganga Rejuvenation. The policy advocates –

• Rainwater harvesting and conservation of water.
• Highlights the need for augmenting the availability of water through direct use of rainfall.
• Conservation of river, river bodies and infrastructure in a scientifically planned manner through community participation.

(2) Creation of a new Ministry of Jal Shakti for dealing with all matters relating to water at one place in an integrated manner.

(3) Atal Bhujal Yojana (Atal Jal): It is a Central Sector Scheme, for sustainable management of groundwater resources with community participation in water-stressed blocks.

(4) Mass awareness programs (Training, Seminars, Workshops, Exhibitions, Trade Fares and Painting Competitions, etc.) are conducted from time to time each year under the Information, Education & Communication (IEC) Scheme.

 (5) Encouraging farmers to adopt micro-irrigation techniques such as drip irrigation and micro-sprinklers.

• The government has initiated schemes like the DRIP program, more drop per crop, Krishi Sinchai Yojana to ensure economical water use practices in agriculture.

(6) Use of tensiometer: The tensiometer gives visual information about the availability of soil moisture conditions. Irrigating the field based on this information will help conserve groundwater.

Way Forward

• Routine survey at regular intervals: There should be regular assessment of groundwater levels to ensure that adequate data is available for formulating policies and devising new techniques.
• Assessment of land use pattern: Studies should be carried out to assess land use and the proportion of agricultural land falling under overt-exploited units.
  • This will help in determining suitable crop patterns in water-stressed areas.
• Changes in farming methods: To improve the water table in those areas where it is being overused, on-farm water management techniques and improved irrigation methods should be adopted.
  • Methods for artificial recharge of groundwater are also welcome.
  • Bottom-up approach by empowering the local community to become active participants in managing groundwater.
  • Creating regulatory options at the community level such as panchayat is also one among the feasible solutions.
  • Traditional methods of water conservation should be encouraged to minimize the depletion of water resources.

• Reforms in power supply subsidies for agriculture: The agricultural power-pricing structure needs to be revamped as the flat rate of electricity adversely affects the use of groundwater.
• Monitoring groundwater extraction: There should be a policy in place to monitor the excessive exploitation of groundwater resources to ensure long-term sustainability.
  • Water meters could be installed to monitor overuse.
  • There should be restrictions to cut off the access to groundwater in areas identified as “critical” and “dark zones”, where the water table is overused or very low.
  • There is a need to treat water as a common resource rather than private property to prevent its overexploitation
• Preventing groundwater pollution – Steps to minimize and control the dumping of industrial waste into surface water and underground aquifers should also be taken to prevent groundwater from getting polluted.
  • Problems and issues such as waterlogging, salinity, agricultural toxins, and industrial effluents, all need to be properly looked into.
• The synergy between Central, State and Local governments – Steps need to be taken to achieve optimum benefits of groundwater conservation schemes.
  • This can be done by ensuring coordination between all the ministries and departments of government at the Central, State, and Local levels.
• Water to be brought under Concurrent List – If water is brought under the Concurrent List of the Indian Constitution, this can help in the development of a comprehensive action plan.
  • Consensus between the centre and states will result in better conservation, development and management of water, including groundwater.
• Surface water body management: Restoration of ponds, lakes and other traditional water resource structures should be an integral part of the development projects of urban and rural areas and it will substantially develop groundwater potential.
• Wastewater management: Dual sewage system for grey water and black water and promoting reuse of the recycled water in agriculture and horticulture.
  • Industries should also be encouraged to increase water use efficiency, effluent treatment, reuse of used water, zero liquid discharge, etc.
• Implementing Mihir Shah Committee (2016) recommendations: Central Water Commission and the Central Ground Water Board could be united and a national water framework with an integrated perspective developed.
  • There is also a need to work out local­level plans covering water resources in all their forms: rainwater, surface water, soil water and groundwater and the resource use sectors.

Conclusion

Groundwater depletion is becoming an alarming issue day by day. It is high time that the causes are paid attention to and appropriate measures are taken to prevent a possible water crisis in the future. Leveraging schemes like Atal Bhujal Yojana which seeks to strengthen the institutional framework and bring about behavioral changes at the community level for sustainable groundwater resource management is vital.

The new paradigm for groundwater management is a socio­ecological challenge, where localism matters. It warrants technical, economic, legal and governance remediation with space for active public participation and community regulatory options to maintain groundwater balance at the village/watershed level.

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Context

Pakistan’s opposition parties are ready to move a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Imran Khan. The country is facing a recurring financial crisis and Khan is accused of mismanaging the economy.

What is the real issue?

• Anger against the govt: Pakistan’s economy was already facing a crisis that Khan has been unable to resolve. He has been accused of mismanaging the economy and the country’s foreign policy.
• Pakistan military’s stance: When Khan came to power, he had the complete support of the military. As pressure grows on Khan, Pakistan’s powerful military is said to have withdrawn support to the government.
• Support within his government: Ahead of the crucial no-confidence vote, Khan’s cabinet ministers are resigning. Khan is losing support quickly and it is unlikely that he will survive the no-confidence vote.

Pakistan has a history of political crisis

• Political instability has been endemic with the country alternating between military interventions and civilian rule.
• Inherent motives of elite class: Reforms that could have transformed the country and placed its economy on a high-growth were repeatedly postponed as they would have threatened the ruling elite’s privileges and hold on power.
  • Complicating the quest to address persistent economic, governance and security challenges was the impact of global and regional developments.
• Reasons for the political conflict in Pakistan: The political conflict in Pakistan is because of the gap between –
  1. the modern state and traditional society,
  2. between institutional design and practice and
  3. between “a ‘Western’ framework of authority and Islamic norms and practices”.
• Governance failures and the ruling elite’s resistance to reform have marked Pakistan’s political history.
• An Establishmentarian Democracy: Pakistan’s present hybrid regime is democratic only in form and not substance. There is also a long history of manipulation of elections by extra-parliamentary forces to shape outcomes.

Pakistan leaning toward a failed state

• Advance by Taliban: Concerns about stability in Pakistan became more acute when the Taliban began their advance out of Swat towards Punjab. The Taliban had come within 100 miles of Islamabad.
• A collapsed Pakistan will be a nightmare for the US and the region: The US fears that Al Qaeda could launch attacks against the US from Pakistani territory.
  • An even greater fear is that Pakistani nuclear weapons may fall into the hands of radicals. Thus, it is imperative for the US to stabilize Pakistan.
• Pakistan’s approach towards terrorism: Despite military action against the Taliban, Pakistan’s attitude towards terrorism remains ambiguous.
  • It has done precious little to bring to book the perpetrators of the Mumbai terror attacks. Terror groups from Punjab and PoK are regarded as assets against India.
• Seeds of long-term instability have sown: The military has once again become stronger after the Swat operations although.
  • The army has about 20 per cent Pushtuns. The operations against the Taliban who are also Pushtuns may affect the morale within the army.

Failure of CPEC

• China has played the game: China will largely be benefitted by CPEC at the cost of Pakistan. Pakistan is slowly moving towards a financial doomsday.
• Negative Economic Growth of Pakistan: Almost half of the time has passed and CPEC has not been able to contribute even a single penny towards the GDP of Pakistan.
  • At the same time, Chinese debts are mounting and the re-payment of these loans and interests is causing holes in the Pakistan economy.
  • CPEC failed to generate even a single job except for casual labour for the construction of some of the projects.
• No accountability for delay/cost escalations: Except early harvest power projects, not even a single CPEC project was completed in time. Each and every project is running late with major cost escalations.
• Ceding of strategic assets: Pakistan has already ceded two islands and is in the process of ceding a few more assets including the entire Gwadar Free Trade Zone to China.
  • In mid-2020, Pakistan also gave total mining rights at its Saindak Mines to China at a throwaway price of just 350 Million USD.
• Military Aspects of CPEC: Military have been ruling the country ever since its inception in 1947 and will continue to do so.
  • Also, Pakistan is facing the wrath of US and other international powers because of its involvement in terror-related activities.
  • Pakistan needs military hardware and at this point of time, China is the only source.
• Industrial output in Chinese Hands: China is slowly acquiring Pakistani industries.
  • As such there is negative growth in the Industrial output of Pakistan in the last 5 years, handing over key industries to China will invariably put China in the driving seat of its economic growth.
  • China is never going to use it for benefit of Pakistan but will make all efforts to achieve maximum profits in the least possible time. It will put a serious strain on Pakistan’s Economy and overall GDP.
• Pakistan is fast turning into a Chinese colony: China is known for its aggressive policies and debt-trap diplomacy. Their union has created a serious impact on the foreign relations of Pakistan.
  • Recently, Pakistan lost all its rapport among the Organisation of Islamic Co-operation (OIC) especially Saudi Arabia and UAE and one of the major reasons is the dirty association of China-Pakistan.

Balochistan’s Uprising

• During the British withdrawal from the Indian subcontinent, the Kingdom of Balochistan was given the choice of joining India, Pakistan, or remaining independent.
• Balochistan’s king chose to remain independent, and the country did remain independent for over a year.
• In 1948, the Pakistani government used a combination of military and diplomatic means to seize control of the region and incorporate it into Pakistan.
• The insurgency in Balochistan has been active since 1948, owing to a lack of development and the human rights violations in the province by the Pakistani military and terror groups.
• Pakistan claims that India has provided arms and intelligence to these rebel fighters.

Back to Basics: About Balochistan

• Balochistan is one of Pakistan’s four provinces. Despite being the largest province in terms of land area, it is the least populated.
• It is populated by ethnic Baloch people who can be found across modern-day Iran and Afghanistan, while Balochistan has the majority of the Baloch population.
• Balochistan is one of Pakistan’s most important areas, rich in natural gas and oil reserves.

India’s position in Balochistan

• India has always maintained a stance of not intervening in Pakistan’s or any other country’s internal affairs.
• Despite Pakistan’s repeated references to the Kashmir issue over the years, India has remained silent on the Balochistan issue.
• In 2016, however, comments about Balochistan were made in the immediate aftermath of Pakistan’s Independence Day celebrations, which were dedicated to the independence of Kashmir.
• The government of India is now making an issue of annexed areas like Baluchistan should be given back to their people along with independence.
• It is now for the first time taking about such issues a bold step in the right direction, and gets their people the human rights denied to them for long. Pakistan and its Army has not dreamt of this changed India.
• By invoking Balochistan freedom struggle, PM targeted both Pakistan & China, whose CPEC depends on safe passage from Gwadar.

Area of conflict with Afghanistan

• Durand line conflict: Durand line is separating Afghanistan and Pakistan, forced by the British dividing the Pashtun people between Pakistan and Afghanistan, is not endorsed by any Afghan government including the Taliban.
• Independent Pashtunistan can also soon be a reality with areas from Afghanistan and Pakistan making up their country. The Pashtun people are Sunni Muslims.
• Independent Kurdistan freedom movement: The actions in the area for an Independent Kurdistan are also having ramifications on freedom movements of other ethnic groups divided by history.
  • The Kurds are much ahead than all other freedom movements in the area, as they are backed by oil wealth from the region under their control.
  • The Kurds are also divided into three parts: one part with Syria, the second part with Turkey and the third part with Iraq.

Shia-Sunni Divide in Pakistan

• The origin of Shia–Sunni relations can be traced back to a dispute over the succession to the Islamic prophet Muhammad as a caliph of the Islamic community.
• After the death of the Islamic prophet Muhammad in 632, a group of Muslims, who would come to be known as the Sunnis, believed that Muhammad’s successor should be Abu Bakr whereas a second group of Muslims, who would come to be known as the Shia, believed that his successor should have been Ali.
• Recently, thousands of Deobandi followers seen chanting anti-Shia slogans in Pakistan, referring to the community as ‘kafir’ (non-Muslim) and calling upon the state to ban Ashura, the Shias’ main religious event to mourn the death of Prophet Muhammad’s grandson Hussain in 680 AD.
• The Pakistan government tried to contain any outbreak of violence, because Shias in Pakistan are a sizeable minority. They represent about 21% of the total Muslim population, the highest number in a country after Iran.
• Violence is inevitable: Deobandi ideology has been given a freer hand, as demonstrated by the passing of the Tahaffuz-e-Bunyad bill in July 2020 in the provincial Punjab Assembly.
  • The bill is problematic due to its lack of consensus on key religious concepts between Sunnis and Shias.
  • Pakistan has reportedly witnessed the killing of approximately 4,847 Shias in incidents of sectarian violence between 2001 and 2018. Karachi saw the targeted killing of Shia doctors and lawyers in 1999, even before 9/11.
  • The Barelvis who are known for greater sympathy with the Shias also seem to have turned against them in recent times.

The state of Pakistan’s economy

• Forex and currency crises: Pakistan has repeatedly run into macroeconomic crises- runaway inflation, current account and trade deficits, depleting foreign reserves, and currency devaluations.
• The two immediate threats to the country’s economy come from the build-up of inflationary pressures, and a payments crisis that stems from a combination of global and domestic factors.
• Foreign exchange reserves crisis: Pakistan’s Forex reserves are plummeting continuously.
• Currency devaluation: A persistently high deficit can potentially lead to an excess supply of a country’s currency in its foreign exchange market, which eventually negatively impacts the value of the currency.
• The IMF bailout: As growth fell and debt services obligations mounted, the country has been faced with a potential balance-of-payments crisis.
  • Pakistan imports most items of domestic consumption, making it more vulnerable to these pressures; the increasing debt servicing obligations have added to the pressure.
  • In exchange for a $6 billion funding package, Pakistan had to commit to structural reforms and reducing public debt. But the funding plan stalled earlier this year over issues related to reform commitments.

Pakistan Army and the State

• The army disregarded the development of the people in order to control more assets.
• In order to justify its existence, it converted Pakistan into a security-seeking State (over-emphasizing the threat from India) where a strong army was considered a necessity for the existence of the country.
• The first military coup happened early in its history — Pakistan President Iskander Mirza abrogated the Constitution and declared martial law on 27 October 1958, and appointed General Ayyub Khan as chief martial law administrator.
• After this incident, the army in Pakistan has always been in control. They have controlled defense and external affairs portfolios since then.
• The Pakistani army is essentially meant to handle external threats, but it is also involved in domestic affairs of the State.

New dynamic Pakistan has to face

• As the US withdraws its troops from Afghanistan, Pakistan is eager to build a relationship with Washington that is not tied to US stakes in Afghanistan.
• Pakistan does not want to be totally alienated from U.S. in the new geopolitical jousting between the US and China.
• How Pakistan copes with the new dynamic between the US and China as well as manages the deepening crisis in Afghanistan would be of great interest to India.

Pakistan’s approach to alliances

• Pakistan’s insecurities in relation to India meant it was eager for alliances.
•  And as the Anglo-Americans scouted for partners in the crusade against global communism, Pakistan signed a bilateral security treaty with the US and joined the South East Asia Treaty Organisation and Central Treaty Organisation in the mid-1950s.
• Rather than target Pakistan’s alliance with a West that was intensely hostile to Beijing in the 1950s, Chinese premier Zhou Enlai saw room to exploit Pakistan’s insecurities on India.
• While Pakistan’s ties with the US went up and down, its relationship with China has seen steady expansion.
• Pakistan’s relations with the US flourished after the Soviet Union sent its troops into Afghanistan at the end of 1979.
• The US and Pakistan reconnected in 2001 as Washington sought physical access and intelligence support to sustain its intervention in Afghanistan following the attacks on September 11.
• Now the US wants Pakistan to persuade the Taliban to accept a peaceful transition to a new political order in Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s ability to adapt to shifting geopolitical trends

• Pakistan worries that its leverage in U.S. will diminish once the US turns its back on Afghanistan and towards the Indo-Pacific.
• Pakistan does not want to get in the Indo-Pacific crossfire between the US and China.
• It would also like to dent India’s growing importance in America’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
• India should not underestimate Pakistan’s agency in adapting to the shifting global currents.
• Pakistan has been good at using its great power alliances to its own benefit.

Way Forward

• Despite the democratic elections in Pakistan, the military wields real power in the country. This holds true, especially on matters of defense, national security and foreign policy.
• Pakistan’s Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI), consisting for personnel from Pakistan Armed Forces, is often accused of supporting and training separatist militant groups operating in India.
• Thus, a strong political reform in Pakistan, one that focuses on the welfare of the Pakistani nationals is vital to improving its relations with India.
• There is a need to focus on trade to revive the economy for Pakistan. It need to understand that China is present only for its economic gains and accordingly steps need to be taken.
• Solutions of the problem of mass illiteracy and economic inequities and the imperatives of national integration and national security will determine the degree of political stability, or instability in Pakistan in future.
• Support from the IMF and friendly countries like Saudi Arabia, China, and the UAE will only provide some breathing room in the short term to its shattered economy.
• Promoting manufacturing by creating a more investment-friendly environment, broadening its tax base, and encouraging innovation and modernization in export-led industries are just some of the most urgent measures the government can take to address the growing fiscal and current account deficit.
• It is essential for Pakistan to do away with supporting terrorism and terrorist activities as the people of Pakistan are becoming the main victims of their policies.

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Context

Recently, the Delhi Municipal Corporation (Amendment) Bill, 2022 was introduced in Lok Sabha. The Bill seeks to amend the Delhi Municipal Corporation Act, 1957 passed by Parliament. The Act was earlier amended in 2011 by Delhi Legislative Assembly to trifurcate the erstwhile Municipal Corporation of Delhi into:

1. North Delhi Municipal Corporation
2. South Delhi Municipal Corporation
3. East Delhi Municipal Corporation

The Bill seeks to unify the three corporations.

What are the key features of the Bill?

(1) Unification of Municipal Corporations in Delhi:

• The Bill replaces the three municipal corporations under the Act with one Corporation named the Municipal Corporation of Delhi.

(2) Powers of the Delhi government:

• The Act as amended in 2011 empowers the Delhi government to decide various matters under the Act.
• These include:

1. Total number of seats of councillors and number of seats reserved for members of the Scheduled Castes,
2. Division of the area of corporations into zones and wards,
3. Delimitation of wards,
4. Matters such as salary and allowances, and leave of absence of the Commissioner,
5. Sanctioning of consolidation of loans by a corporation, and
6. Sanctioning suits for compensation against the Commissioner for loss or waste or misapplication of Municipal Fund or property

• Similarly, the Act mandates that the Commissioner will exercise his powers regarding building regulations under the general superintendence and directions of Delhi government.
• The Bill instead empowers the central government to decide these matters.

(3) Number of councilors:

• The Act provides that the number of seats in the three corporations taken together should not be more than 272.
• The 14^th Schedule to the Act specifies 272 wards across the three Corporations.
• The Bill states that the total number of seats in the new Corporation should not be more than 250.

(4) Removal of Director of Local Bodies:

• The Act provides for a Director of Local Bodies to assist the Delhi government and discharge certain functions which include:

1. Coordinating between Corporations,
2. Framing recruitment Rules for various posts, and
3. Coordinating the collecting and sharing of toll tax collected by the respective Corporations.

• The Bill omits this provision for a Director of Local Bodies.

(5) Special officer to be appointed by the central government:

• The Bill provides that the central government may appoint a Special Officer to exercise powers of the Corporation until the first meeting of the Corporation is held after the commencement of the Bill.

(6) E-governance system for citizens:

• The Bill adds that obligatory functions of the new Corporation will include establishing an e-governance system for citizen services on anytime-anywhere basis for better, accountable, and transparent administration.

(7) Conditions of service for sweepers:

• The Act provides that a sweeper employed for doing house scavenging of a building would be required to give a reasonable cause or a 14 day notice before discontinuing his service.
• The Bill seeks to omit this provision.

What is the need for this unification?

1. Creating compact municipalities in Delhi to provide more efficient civic services to the public has not been achieved.
   1. Instead, owing to inadequacies in resources and uncertainty in fund allocation and release, the three corporations have been facing huge financial hardships.
   1. This was making it difficult for them to maintain the civic services in Delhi at the desired levels.
2. Trifurcation of the erstwhile Municipal Corporation of Delhi was uneven in terms of territorial divisions and revenue generating potential.
   1. As a result, there was a huge gap in the resources available to the three corporations compared to their obligations.
   1. It says that the gap has grown, leading to delay in the payment of salaries and retirement benefits which have resulted in frequent strikes.

What are the concerns, if enacted?

• New delimitation exercise: Reducing the number of seats means a new delimitation exercise will have to be conducted, which experts say will take at least three months, but is more likely to take six months.
• Bureaucratization: Appointing a Special Officer means that until the elections are concluded, the Centre will likely appoint an officer to run the corporation.
  • The Bill also does away with the provision of appointing a Director of Local Bodies by the Delhi government.
• Central hegemony: The other significant change is the replacement of the word “government” with “Central government” in all places.
  • The bill hence seeks to curtail the powers of the elected govt of New Delhi by introducing central hegemony.

But this is not the first time that there is a political tussle between the Delhi government and the center. There are various issues earlier which are important from the exam point of view. Let us discuss them.

Jurisdictional conflict in the running of Delhi

• Delhi Government had accused Lieutenant Governor (LG) of referring the decisions of an elected government to President and thus causing hurdles in governance 
• The Centre, which appoints the L-G, contends that “for any Centrally administered territory and especially Delhi responsibility is on the Union Government”.
• Also, Delhi, being a Union territory, does not have a cadre of officers of its own and is part of a common cadre shared with other UTs. Thus, the elected government of Delhi has less control over its officers.

Supreme Court on Delhi Governance Structure

•  Supreme Court view: Delhi Lieutenant Governor cannot act independently and must take the aid and advice of the Council of Ministers.
• All decisions by Delhi’s council of ministers must be communicated to the L-G but that does not mean his concurrence is required.
• Except for issues of public order, police and land, the Lieutenant Governor is bound by the aid and advice of the Council of Ministers.

• The LG has no independent authority to take decisions except in matters under Article 239 or matters outside the purview of the government.
• L-G cannot act as an obstructionist and can refer issues to the President when there is the difference of opinion on any matter (Article 239AA(4)). 
  • This should happen only in exceptional matters and not as a general rule
• The government need not obtain LG concurrence in every issue of day-to-day governance. The national capital enjoys a special status and is not a full state.

Government of National Capital Territory (GNCT) of Delhi (Amendment) Act, 2021

The Act defines the responsibilities of the elected government and the L-G along with the “constitutional scheme of governance of the NCT” interpreted by the Supreme Court in recent judgments regarding the division of powers between the two entities.

Provisions of the GNCT of Delhi (Amendment) Act 2021

• It amended the Sections 21, 24, 33 and 44 of the 1991 Act.
• States that the “government” in the National Capital Territory of Delhi meant the Lieutenant-Governor of Delhi.
• It gives discretionary powers to the L-G even in matters where the Legislative Assembly of Delhi is empowered to make laws.
• It seeks to ensure that the L-G is “necessarily granted an opportunity” to give her or his opinion before any decision taken by the Council of Ministers (or the Delhi Cabinet) is implemented.
• It bars the Assembly or its committees from making rules to take up matters concerning day-to-day administration, or to conduct inquiries in relation to administrative decisions.

Way Forward

Greater transparency, improved governance, and more efficient delivery of civic service

• According to Article 239AA of the Constitution of India, the Parliament has the power to amend or form laws on any matter formulated by the Delhi Assembly.
• At the time when the MCD was trifurcated, the expectation was that it would lead to Delhi’s progress. It was thought that the services provided by the MCDs will improve and there will be welfare of its workers. But, the result was unsatisfactory in the last 10 years.
• The Bill has been introduced for greater transparency, improved governance and more efficient delivery of civic service for the people of Delhi, and also to ease the financial crisis faced by MCDs at present.

Delhi cannot be unitary

• What distinguishes Delhi from other federal districts is sheer size. Its population would subsume the populations of the above-mentioned cities.
• Its closest peer is Mexico City. In a significant development, Mexico City was upgraded from federal district to the country’s 32nd state in 2016.
• This was driven by the desire to provide more responsive government for residents.

Decentralization of decision-making is important

• There are alternative ways in which both the central government as well as state authorities can partake jointly in the management of the city.
• This might be achieved by a two-tier metropolitan authority.

Control over police

• Control over-policing has been a major point of contention in Delhi.
• With the lone exception of Abuja, in other federal districts, the local governments have jurisdiction over at least some aspects of policing.

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Context

Union Home Minister Amit Shah reviewed the progress of the rehabilitation of Kashmiri migrants, including Kashmiri Pandits, during a meeting with Jammu and Kashmir Lieutenant-Governor Manoj Sinha in Jammu.  According to the Home Ministry, only 17% of the proposed accommodation for Kashmiri Pandits has been completed in the past seven years under the Prime Minister’s Development Package announced in 2015. The Government stated that the construction of all transit accommodation units will be completed by 2023.

About Kashmiri Pandits

• The Kashmiri Pandits (also known as Kashmiri Brahmins) are Kashmiri Hindus and a part of the larger Saraswat Brahmin community.
• They belong to the Pancha (five) Gauda Brahmana groups from the Kashmir Valley. They are the only remaining Kashmiri Hindu community native to Kashmir.
• The Kashmiri Pandits originally lived in the Kashmir Valley before the growth of Islamic militancy in the valley and had been a favoured section of the population of the valley during Dogra rule (1846–1947). 
• 20 percent of them left the valley as a consequence of the 1950 land reforms,and by 1981 the Pandit population amounted to 5 percent of the total population.
• Many of the refugee Kashmiri Pandits have been living in abject conditions in refugee camps of Jammu. The government has reported on the terrorist threats to Pandits still living in the Kashmir region.

Row over the movie

• Hype of oppression: The thrust of the movie is how the intensity of the oppression or killing of the Pandits in the Kashmir Valley was totally underplayed in the media and how insensitive the political and intellectual elites of the country were.
• Accusation of being far ‘Right’: The narrative has been challenged by professional film reviewers and India’s so-called liberal/secular elites, who dominate leading educational institutions and national media.
• Fiction being sensationalized: For them, the movie is doctored, staged and faked.

Why liberals objecting to the film?

• Ignorance of minorities: They say that films has shown a limited side; it has ignored how many more Muslims have died too and how the insurrection – movement or insurgency has been due to mis-governance and wrong decisions.
• ‘Human Rights’ of the terrorists: These liberals have always projected the Indian military as aggressor and Kashmiris as underdogs fighting for their human rights.
• Decline in empathy: In fact, under the influence of these liberals, some important national dailies have now even stopped using the term “terrorists” altogether; instead, they now prefer to use the word “militants”.

Plight of the Pandits

• Political correctness of the genocide: The movie puts paramount importance in being politically correct at the cost of obfuscating truth, conveying indifference, and showing a lack of empathy. 
• Long deserved sensationalization of the issue: It brings plight that Kashmir Hindus also didn’t share their experiences as much, sometimes in a bid to move on, and other times expecting ridicule or indifference by the liberals.
• Movie revitalized the wounds of past: The movie is perceived as a watershed moment whereby having provided a powerful visual glimpse of the actual genocide in most truthful form.
• Spark for mainstream discussion: The subject that was taboo is now in the mainstream and people are comfortable with hearing and reconciling with the truth when the world considered India as a villain in Kashmir.

The run-up: 1980s to 1990

• Political instability: Sheikh Abdullah had died in 1982, and the leadership of the National Conference passed on to his son Farooq Abdullah, who won the 1983 election.
  • But within two years, the Centre broke up the NC, and installed dissident Ghulam Mohammed Shah as Chief Minister. This led to huge disaffection and political instability.
• Militancy: The Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) stepped up its activities, and the hanging of the militant leader Maqbool Bhat in 1984 added to the sense of foreboding.
• Religious interventions: In 1986, after the Rajiv Gandhi government opened the Babri Masjid locks to enable Hindus to offer prayers there, ripples were felt in Kashmir too.
  • In Anantnag, there was a series of attacks on Hindu temples, and shops and properties of Kashmiri Pandits, blamed on separatist and secessionists.
• The rigged election of 1987 after which Abdullah formed the government was a turning point at which militants took the upper hand.
  • The 1989 submission to the JKLF set the stage for the next decade.
  • Pandits had begun to be targeted. Eminent persons of the community were being shot dead.

What happened on January 19, 1990?

• Governor’s rule imposed: Matters came to a head on January 19. By then, the Farooq Abdullah government had been dismissed and Governor’s Rule imposed.
• No option but to leave the valley: According to accounts published by many Kashmiri Pandits, there were threatening slogans over loudspeakers from mosques, and on the streets.
• Speeches were made extolling Pakistan and the supremacy of Islam, and against Hinduism. The Kashmiri Pandit community decided to leave.

The Gawkadal Massacre

• The flight – In January 20, the first stream began leaving the Valley with hastily packed belongings in whatever transport they could find.
• The massacre – In January 21, the CRPF gunned down 160 Kashmiri Muslim protesters at the Gawkadal Bridge, the worst massacre in the long history of the conflict in Kashmir.
• Effect – The two events (the flight of the Pandits and the Gawkadal massacre) took place within 48 hours, but for years, neither community could accept the pain of the other, and in some ways, still cannot.

How many Pandits left?

• According to some estimates, notably by the Kashmiri Pandit Sangharsh Samiti (KPSS), of 75,343 Kashmiri Pandit families in January 1990, more than 70,000 fled between 1990 and 1992 and continued until 2000.
• The KPSS has placed the number of Kashmiri Pandits killed by militants from 1990 to 2011 at 399, the majority during 1989-90.
• Some 800 families have remained in the Valley through these three decades.

Role of the administration

• Role of Governor: The other contentious question about the exodus is the role played by the administration, and more specifically that of the J&K Governor, Jagmohan.
• The Kashmiri Muslim view of the exodus is that he encouraged the Pandits to leave the Valley and thus gave a communal colour to what was until then a non-religious Kashmiri cause.
• The Kashmiri Hindu view is that the Kashmiri Muslims, with whom they had lived amicably for centuries,  drove them out with a vengeance in a frenzy of Islamism that they could not have imagined even months earlier.
• The truth, many commentators have concluded, may have been somewhere in the middle.

Present Status of Kashmiri Pandits

• Home Ministry data: Several Kashmiri migrants reside at existing transit accommodation at Vessu (Kulgam), Mattan (Anantnag), Hawl (Pulwama), Natnusa (Kupwara), Sheikhpora (Budgam) and Veerwan (Baramulla) in the Kashmir Valley other than the camps in Jammu.
• Various organizations came forward: Following the migration of the Kashmiri Pandit community, various socio-political organizations have sprung up to represent the cause of the displaced community.
  • These organizations are involved in rehabilitation of the community in the valley through peace negotiations, mobilization of human rights groups and job creation for the Pandits.
• More than 60,000 families are registered as Kashmiri migrants including some Sikh and Muslim families.Most families were resettled in Jammu, NCR and other neighbouring states.
• 2020 parliamentary panel report: There are 64,827 registered migrant families in J&K — 60,489 Hindu families, 2,609 Muslim families and 1,729 Sikh families.
  • Out of the 64,827 families, 43,494 are registered in Jammu, 19,338 in Delhi and 1,995 families are settled in other States and Union Territories.
• Many of those who did return under a government job scheme, they live in migrant colonies and do not have basic amenities like a ration card or even a voter ID card.

The question of return

• Those who had means rebuilt their lives elsewhere in the country — Delhi, Pune, Mumbai and Ahmedabad have Pandit populations, also Jaipur and Lucknow — or went abroad.
• The fleeing Pandits did not think they would never return to the Valley. But as the situation in Kashmir spiraled into a full-blown militancy, return began to look remote if not impossible.
• Successive governments have promised that they will help this process, but the situation on the ground in Kashmir has meant this remains only an intention.
• There is an acute realization in the community that the Valley is no longer the same that they left behind in 1990.
• In many cases, their properties were either immediately vandalised or sold quickly by the owners to Kashmiri Muslims. Many fell into disrepair.
• Now, Kashmiri Muslims see the return of Pandits as essential, but reject the idea of their settlement in secured camps as a replication of Israel-like Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

Steps taken by Government

• ‘The Jammu And Kashmir Migrant Immovable Property (Preservation, Protection And Restraint on Distress Sales) Act, 1997’
  • It provides that any person who is an unauthorized occupant or recipient of any usufruct of any immovable property of the migrant shall pay to the migrant the compensation in such a manner as may be determined by the District Magistrate.
• Announcement of various relief packages by respective governments
  • As of 2016, a total of 1,800 Kashmiri Pandit youths have returned to the valley since the announcement of Rs. 1,168-crore package in 2008 by the UPA government.
• Prime Minister’s Development Package announced in 2015, had approved the creation of 3,000 government jobs for Kashmiri migrants.

• So far, 1,739 migrants have been appointed and 1,098 others selected for the jobs.
• A similar package for migrants was announced by the UPA government in 2008 under which 2,905 jobs had been filled out of the 3,000 jobs approved.
• 6,000 transit accommodation units were announced in 2015 for the members who were to be provided jobs by the J&K administration at a cost of Rs 920 crore.

Way forward

• Punitive actions on terror: The first thing that would deliver justice to exiled Hindus would be to try and punish terrorists’ organizations for the crimes they committed against humanity.
• Rehabilitation and re-settlement: The second and longer-term should be the effort of reconciliation, rehabilitation and inclusion.
• Vajpayee doctrine:  The doctrine, ‘Insaniyat, (humanity), Jamhuriyat (Democracy) and Kashmiriyat (identity of the Kashmir people). This largely came to be known as the Vajpayee doctrine.
• Cosmopolitan inclusive smart city: The way forward for achieving that is to set up a cosmopolitan inclusive smart city where Indians of all origins including the evicted Kashmiri Hindus can build their lives and homes.
• Learning from the past: This will put the chapter of annihilation and extermination behind us. It is a humongous undertaking but we can take inspiration from the past, when the Mauryans established the city of Srinagar two thousand years ago.

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Context

• After a prolonged court case in Ahmedabad Serial Blast Case 2008, a special court pronounced the punishments for the convicted, with 38 given death penalty.
• This is the highest number ever given death sentence in any ruling in India.
• On July 26, 2008, a series of 21 bomb blasts hit Ahmedabad within a span of 70 minutes, killing 56 people and injuring over 200.

Hence the debate surrounding capital punishments has once again started. With the increasing strength of the human rights movement in India, the existence of capital punishment is questioned as immoral.

What is Capital Punishment?

• Capital punishment, sometimes called death penalty, is execution of an offender sentenced to death after conviction by a court of law for a criminal offense.
• It should be distinguished from extrajudicial executions carried out without due process of law.
• The term death penalty is sometimes used interchangeably with capital punishment, though imposition of the penalty is not always followed by execution, because of the possibility of commutation to life imprisonment.

When is it awarded?

• The term “Capital Punishment” stands for most severe form of punishment.
• It is the punishment which is to be awarded for the most heinous, grievous and detestable crimes against humanity.
• While the definition and extent of such crimes vary, the implication of capital punishment has always been the death sentence.

Historical Background

• Capital punishment is an ancient sanction.  There is practically no country in the world where the death penalty has never existed.
• History of human civilization reveals that during no period of time capital punishment has been discarded as a mode of punishment.
• Capital punishment for murder, treason, arson, and rape was widely employed in ancient Greece under the laws of Draco, though Plato argued that it should be used only for the incorrigible.
• The most terrible form of public beheading still persists in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Countries (and surprisingly, it is one of the most cherished public event).
• Pakistan has death penalty even for the juveniles.

Capital Punishment in India

• Article 21 ensures the Fundamental Right to life and liberty for all persons.
• It adds no person shall be deprived of his life or personal liberty except according to procedure established by law.
• Capital punishment is an integral part of the Indian criminal justice system.
• The Indian Penal Code (IPC) provides that only in following offences, capital punishment could be awarded:

1. Murder (s.302),
2. Abetment of suicide by a minor, insane person or intoxicated person (s.305),
3. Threatening or inducing any person to give false evidence resulting in the conviction and death of an innocent person (s.195A),
4. Perjury resulting in the conviction and death of an innocent person (s.194),
5. Treason, for waging war against the Government of India (s.121),
6. Abetment of mutiny actually committed (s.132),
7. Attempted murder by a serving life convict (s.307(2)),
8. Kidnapping for ransom (s.364A),
9. Dacoity [armed robbery or banditry] with murder (s.396),
10. Criminal conspiracy (s. 120 B),
11. Death penalty is also provided under the following special and local laws:

1. Unlawful Activities Prevention Act, 1967 (as amended in 2004)
2. Defence and Internal Security of India Act, 1971
3. Defence of India Act, 1971
4. Commission of Sati (Prevention) Act, 1987
5. Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances (Prevention) Act, 1985, as amended in, 1988
6. Terrorist and Disruptive Activities (Prevention) Act, 1987 (TADA)
7. Prevention of Terrorism Act 2002, (POTA)
8. Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act, 1989
9. Explosive Substances Act, 1908 (amended in 2001)
10. Arms Act, 1959 (amended in 1988)
11. Laws relating to the Armed Forces, for example the Air Force Act 1950, the Army Act 1950 and the Navy Act 1950 and the Indo-Tibetan Border Police Force Act 1992
12. Various states (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Arunachal Pradesh and Maharashtra) have control of Organised Crime Acts which entail the death penalty.

Special factors on the death penalty jurisprudence in India

(a) Increase in Sexual Offences

• The report on death penalty published by NLU Delhi shows that the rate of awarding capital punishment to the offences of rape with murder is much higher than other offences.
• There is no doubt that rape is one of the most heinous crimes.

(b) Sedition and waging War against India

• India has seen many cases of treason, terrorism and seditious activities.
• It is in fact the most vulnerable state for such crimes.

Judicial observations related to Death Penalty

The Supreme Court has always said that the death sentence should be given rarely.

Judgments against:

(a) Mithu vs State of Punjab (1983):

• The Supreme Court ruled that the mandatory death penalty is unconstitutional.
• It struck down Section 303 in the IPC, which entailed a mandatory death sentence for a person who commits murder while serving a life term in another case.
• The Supreme Court ruled Section 303 violated Articles 14 (right to equality) and 21 (right to life) since an unreasonable distinction was sought to be made between two classes of murders.

(b) State of Punjab vs Dalbir Singh (2012):

• Similarly, the Supreme Court ruled that mandatory death penalty as punishment for crimes under Section 27 (3) of the Arms Act, 1959, was unconstitutional.

(c) Channulal Verma vs State of Chhattisgarh (2018):

• In Channulal, the Supreme Court, through Justice Kurian Joseph noted that the time was appropriate to review the constitutionality of the death penalty and take into consideration reformative aspects of punishment

Judgments in favour:

• In Jagmohan Singh vs State of UP’ (1973), then in ‘Rajendra Prasad vs State of UP’ (1979), and finally in ‘Bachan Singh vs State of Punjab’ (1980) the Supreme Court affirmed the constitutional validity of the death penalty.
• It said that if capital punishment is provided in the law and the procedure is a fair, just and reasonable one, the death sentence can be awarded to a convict.
• This will, however, only be in the “rarest of rare” cases, and the courts should render “special reasons” while sending a person to the gallows.

What is a “Rarest of Rare” Case?

• The principles of what would constitute the “rarest of rare” were laid down by the top court in the landmark judgment in ‘Bachan Singh’.
• Two prime questions, the top court held, may be asked and answered:

1. First, is there something uncommon about the crime which renders the sentence of imprisonment for life inadequate and calls for a death sentence?
2. Second, are there circumstances of the crime such that there is no alternative but to impose the death sentence even after according maximum weightage to the mitigating circumstances which speak in favour of the offenders?

Avenues available to a Death-Row Convict

• Confirmation by HC: After a trial court awards the death penalty, the sentence must be confirmed by a High Court. The sentence cannot be executed till the time the High Court confirms it, either after deciding the appeal filed by the convict, or until the period allowed for preferring an appeal has expired.
• Review Petition: If the High Court confirms the death penalty and it is also upheld by the Supreme Court, a convict can file a review petition.
• Curative Petition: If the review petition is rejected, the convict can file a curative petition for reconsideration of the judgment.
• Mercy Petition: Under Article 72 of the Indian Constitution, the President shall have the power to grant pardons, reprieves, respites, or remissions of punishments or to suspend, remit or commute the sentence of any convicted person.

Debate over Death Penalty

Arguments in favor:

• Forfeiture of life: Supporters of the death penalty believe that those who commit murder, because they have taken the life of another, have forfeited their own right to life.
• Moral indignation of the victim: It is a just form of retribution, expressing and reinforcing the moral indignation not only of the victim’s relatives but of law-abiding citizens in general.
• Highest form of Justice: For heinous crimes such as the Nirbhaya Gangrape Case, no other punishment could have deterred the will of the convicts.
• Deterrent against crime: Capital punishment is often justified with the argument that by executing convicted murderers, we will deter would-be murderers from killing people.
• Proportional punishment: The guilty people deserve to be punished in proportion to the severity of their crime.
• Prevailing lawlessness: The crimes we are now witnessing cannot be addressed by simple punishments. We are seeing horrific attacks on women, young girls, minority communities and Dalits etc.
• Prevention of crime is non-existent: Despite of stringent regulations, it is certainly visible that some crimes can never be prevented in our society.

Arguments against:

• Eye for an eye: Reformative justice is more productive, that innocent people are often killed in the search for retribution, and that “an eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.
• Deterrence is a myth: Death penalty is not a deterrent to capital crimes state that there is no evidence to support the claim that the penalty is a deterrent.
• Political tool of suppression: The authorities in some countries, for example Iran and Sudan, use the death penalty to punish political opponents.
• Reverence for life’ principle: Death penalty is an immoral punishment since humans should not kill other humans, no matter the reasons, because killing is killing.
• Stigma against killing: With the introduction of lethal injection as execution method, medical professionals participate in executions. Many professionals have now refused to administer such deaths.
• Skewed justice systems: In many cases recorded by Amnesty International, people were executed after being convicted in grossly unfair trials, on the basis of torture-tainted evidence and with inadequate legal representation.
• Discriminatory nature: The weight of the death penalty is disproportionally carried by those with less advantaged socio-economic backgrounds or belonging to a racial, ethnic or religious minority.  
• Penalizing the innocents: The risk of executing the innocent precludes the use of the death penalty. Our colonial history has witnessed many such executions.

Other issues with such executions

(a) Socio-Economic Factors

• The recent statistics shows that the death row prisoners in India are more from the backward classes of the society.
• The death row prisoners belong to backward classes and religious minorities and the majority of convicts’ families are living in adjunct poverty.
• These people who are backward both in economic and social respects, are not in a position to here expensive lawyers and get proper representation in the Court.

(b) Delayed Execution

• The law provides for a long process before the execution of the convicts actually takes place.
• The unexplained delay in execution can be a ground for commutation of death penalty, and an inmate, his or her kin, or even a public-spirited citizen could file a writ petition seeking such commutation.
• Their trials are often cruelly forced to endure long periods of uncertainty about their fate.

Way forward: Law Commission recommendations on death penalty

The Law Commission of India in its 262^nd Report (August 2015) recommended that:

• Death penalty be abolished for all crimes other than terrorism related offences and waging war.
• Measures such as police reforms, witness protection scheme and victim compensation scheme should be taken up expeditiously by the government.  
• It felt that time has come for India to move towards abolition of the death penalty. However the concern is often raised that abolition of death penalty for terrorism-related offences and waging war, will affect national security.

Further, the Commission sincerely hopes that the movement towards absolute abolition will be swift and irreversible

Conclusion

• The society is in uproar today as crime is constantly on the rise.
• Law enforcement structures are struggling to meet the expectations of the civil society.
• In a rapidly antipathic society, our legal structures need to send a strong message to enforce the idea that punishment will be “consequential” and commensurate to the crime.

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Context

Recently, Chief Election Commissioner in an interview said the Election Commission is ready to hold simultaneous elections on the lines of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s call for ‘One Nation One Election’.

What are simultaneous polls?

• Currently, elections to the state assemblies and the Lok Sabha are held separately — that is whenever the incumbent government’s five-year term ends or whenever it is dissolved due to various reasons.
• This applies to both the state legislatures and the Lok Sabha. The terms of Legislative Assemblies and the Lok Sabha may not synchronize with one another.
• For instance, Rajasthan faced elections in late 2018, whereas Tamil Nadu will go to elections only in 2021.
• But the idea of “One Nation, One Election” envisages a system where elections to all states and the Lok Sabha will have to be held simultaneously.

Simultaneous polls in India

• India had concurrent elections for the first two decades.
• Starting from the first general elections of free India in 1951 and the next three cycles of elections, the country witnessed concurrent Lok Sabha and Assembly elections.
• Exceptions to these were a few states like Kerala where a mid-term election was held in 1960 on the premature dissolution of the Assembly.
• In Nagaland and Pondicherry where the Legislative Assembly was created only after the 1962 general elections.

End of the era

• The fourth Lok Sabha constituted in 1967 was dissolved prematurely in 1971 ahead of its normal term resulting in a mid-term Lok Sabha election.
• This was the beginning of the end of simultaneous elections in India.
• Extension of the term of Lok Sabha during the National Emergency declared in 1975 and the dissolution of Assemblies of some States after the 1977 Lok Sabha election further disturbed this cycle.
• Currently, there are at least two rounds of Assembly general elections every year.

Making simultaneous elections a reality

• Sections 14 and 15 of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, empower the Election Commission to notify elections any time during the last six months of the term of the House and not earlier than that.
• Therefore, if the terms of the Houses are expiring within a window of three to four months, it would be legally possible to hold elections simultaneously to constitute the new Houses.
• In other words, to contemplate simultaneous elections, we need, as a starting point, a situation where the Lok Sabha and the Legislative Assemblies of all States and UTs have their terms ending together.

Synchronizing the terms of the Houses

• Both the Lok Sabha and Legislative Assemblies (ordinarily) have a term of five years.
• Article 83 of the Constitution provides for the tenure of Lok Sabha. Identical provisions are present in Article 172(1) regarding the term of the Legislative Assemblies.

There is no duplication of work in preparing the electoral rolls for the two elections and hence no extra labor or expenditure is involved on this count.

What is required?

• This necessarily calls for either extending the terms of several of the Houses or curtailing of terms or a combination of both, that too by two to three years in some cases.
• For enabling such curtailing or extension of the term, the relevant Articles of the Constitution mentioned above will have to be suitably amended.

Why Simultaneous Elections?

Two seemingly relevant factors in favour of simultaneous elections as opposed to separate elections are:

1. Effort saving: Simultaneous elections reduce labour, time and expenditure in the conduct of elections; and
2. Instances of pause in governance are addressed if elections are conducted in one go instead of staggered elections.

[1] How is effort saving possible?

• Electoral roll: Polling stations for Lok Sabha and Legislative Assembly elections are the same. So is the electoral roll.
• Labour: There is no duplication of work in preparing the electoral rolls for the two elections and hence no extra labour or expenditure is involved on this count.
• Logistics: In the conduct of elections, all logistic arrangements are replicated for the two elections when the same drill can cater to both the elections if held together.
• Security: This will also mean saving in terms of human resources. Another area of saving in simultaneous elections would be in the deployment of the Central Police Force.

[2] Governance pause can be avoided

• Instances of pause in governance is due to the Model Code of Conduct (MCC).
• MCC is a set of behavior guidelines for candidates and political parties that comes into operation from the date election is announced by the Election Commission.
• A crucial part of the MCC is the restrictions on the party in power.  If all elections are held together, the restrictions under MCC will be through in one go.

[3] Help reduce campaign expenses

• Simultaneous elections can bring considerable savings in the election propaganda campaign expenditure for the political parties.
• Given that political funding is a major factor in the increasing menace of corruption, the move to reduce campaign expenditure is a welcome initiative.

[4] Voter turnout

• A nationwide election could push up the voter turnout since a once-in-five-years event is bound to attract more enthusiastic participation across all sections.
• Frequent elections can bring in the election-fatigue factor at least among some sections of electors.
• The simultaneous elections help address the fatigue element and the usually observed urban apathy in voting. Better electors’ participation will further add to the credibility of the election.

[5] Financial costs of conducting elections

• The costs of conducting each assembly or parliamentary election are huge and, in some senses, incalculable.
• Directly budgeted costs are around Rs 300 crore for a state the size of Bihar.
• But there are other financial costs, and incalculable economic costs.
• The costs of the millions of man-hours used are not charged to the election budget.
• The economic costs of lost teaching weeks, delayed public works, badly delivered or undelivered welfare schemes to the poor have never been calculated.

[6] Visible and invisible costs of repeatedly deploying security forces

• There are also huge and visible costs of deploying security forces and transporting them, repeatedly.
• A bigger invisible cost is paid by the nation in terms of diverting these forces from sensitive areas.

Exceptions to this debate: Local Bodies’ Elections

• The local bodies’ elections have not been considered for the analysis here.
• This is for the reason that the elections to local bodies cannot be clubbed with the proposed simultaneous elections for the Lok Sabha.

Why?

• The elections to local bodies are conducted under the superintendence, direction, and control of a different constitutional authority, namely, the respective State Election Commission.
• Holding local bodies’ elections along with the other elections will require the team of the same polling officials to report to and take instructions from two different authorities simultaneously.
• There is a distinct set of polling stations too for local bodies’ elections.
• Further, the litigation forum before which these elections can be challenged is different.

Challenges in ensuring simultaneous elections in India:

[1] Synchronizing the Houses

• Bringing the terms of all the Houses to sync with one another necessarily calls for either extending the terms of several of the Houses or curtailing of terms or a combination of both.
• This may be by two to three years in some cases.
• For this, relevant Articles of the Constitution will have to be suitably amended.

[2] Midterm dissolution cannot be controlled

• Even if the terms of the Houses are in sync as a one-time measure, we will still need an adequate legal safeguard in place to avoid mid-term dissolution and protect the simultaneous elections cycle.
• This can be a tough task in conventionally fragile states with smaller assemblies with coalitions.

[3] EVM related expenses

• One aspect that could offset the savings would be the doubling of expenses on electronic voting machines (EVMs).
• Considering that the incidental recurring expense in the storage and security of the EVMs will also be a considerable amount.
• The overall expenditure in holding elections may not see any substantial dip on account of simultaneous elections.

Arguments against the idea

• National and state issues are different, and holding simultaneous elections is likely to affect the judgment of voters.
• Since elections will be held once in five years, it will reduce the government’s accountability to the people. Repeated elections keep legislators on their toes and increases accountability.
• When an election in a State is postponed until the synchronized phase, President’s rule will have to be imposed in the interim period in that state.
• This will be a blow to democracy and federalism.

Way forward

• We need an adequate legal safeguarding place to avoid mid-term dissolution and protect the simultaneous elections cycle.
• For maintaining the electoral cycle, some countries have legal provisions to the effect that for a ‘no-confidence motion’.
• Their proposed resolution also contains a constructive ‘vote of confidence in an alternative government to continue with the tenure.

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Context

Tobacco is a silent killer in our midst that kills an estimated 1.35 million Indians every year.

Status of Tobacco Consumption in India

• According to the Global Youth Tobacco Survey, India has the second-largest number (268 million) of tobacco users in the world and of these 13 lakh die every year from tobacco-related diseases.
• Ten lakh deaths are due to smoking, with over 2,00,000 due to second-hand smoke exposure, and over 35,000 are due to smokeless tobacco use.
• About 27 crore people above the age of 15 years and 8.5% of school-going children in the age group 13-15 years use tobacco in some form in India.
• India bears an annual economic burden of over ₹1,77,340 crore on account of tobacco use.
• Tobacco use is known to be a major risk factor for several non-communicable diseases such as cancer, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and chronic lung diseases.
• Nearly 27% of all cancers in India are due to tobacco usage.

Socio-Economic Burden of ‘Tobacco’

• In India, over 1.3 million deaths are attributable to tobacco use every year amounting to 3500 deaths per day, imposing a lot of avoidable socio-economic burden.
• In addition to the death and diseases it causes, tobacco also impacts the economic development of the country.
• Smokers face a 40-50% higher risk of developing severe disease deaths from Covid-19.
• As per the WHO study titled “Economic Costs of Diseases and Deaths Attributable to Tobacco Use in India”, it has been estimated that the economic burden of diseases and deaths attributable to use of tobacco in India was as high as approx 1% of GDP.

Measures towards tobacco control in India

• India adopted the tobacco control provisions under WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC).
• Cigarettes and Other Tobacco Products Act (COTPA), 2003:
  • It replaced the Cigarettes Act of 1975 (largely limited to statutory warnings- ‘Cigarette Smoking is Injurious to Health’ to be displayed on cigarette packs and advertisements. It did not include non-cigarettes).
  • The 2003 Act also included cigars, bidis, cheroots, pipe tobacco, hookah, chewing tobacco, pan masala, and gutka.
• Promulgation of the Prohibition of Electronic Cigarettes Ordinance, 2019: Which prohibits Production, Manufacture, Import, Export, Transport, Sale, Distribution, Storage and Advertisement of e-Cigarettes.
• National Tobacco Quitline Services (NTQLS): Tobacco Quitline Services have the potential to reach a large number of tobacco users with the sole objective to provide telephone-based information, advice, support, and referrals for tobacco cessation.
• mCessation Programme: It is an initiative using mobile technology for tobacco cessation.
  • India launched mCessation using text messages in 2016 as part of the government’s Digital India initiative.

How do the price and taxation of tobacco matter?

• Although not a communicable disease like SARS-CoV-2, the tobacco epidemic — as the World Health Organisation characterizes it — has some definitive solutions that can reduce the death toll.
• Research from many countries around the world including India shows that a price increase induces people to quit or reduce tobacco use as well as discourages non-users from getting into the habit of tobacco use.
• There is overwhelming consensus within the research community that taxation is one of the most cost-effective measures to reduce the demand for tobacco products.
• There has been no significant tax increase on any tobacco product for four years in a row.
• This is quite unlike the pre-GST years where the Union government and many State governments used to effect regular tax increases on tobacco products.
• As peer-reviewed studies show, the lack of tax increase over these years has made all tobacco products increasingly more affordable.
• The absence of a tax increase on tobacco has the potential to reverse the reduction in tobacco use prevalence that India saw during the last decade and now push more people into harm’s way.
•  It would also mean foregone tax revenues for the Government.
• High and increasing tax rates provide a profitable opportunity for tax evasion and encourage growth in illegal trade.

What is the Taxation Scenario of Tobacco in India?

• Ever since the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) legislation in 2017, there has been no significant tax increase on any tobacco product.
• There was only a minor increase in the National Calamity Contingent Duty (NCCD) during the Union Budget 2020-21 which only had the effect of increasing cigarette prices by roughly 5%.
• The Union Budget 2022-23 was an excellent but lost opportunity for the Government of India to buck this trend and significantly increase either excise duties or NCCDs.
• No significant tax increase on any tobacco product for four years in a row has made all tobacco products increasingly more affordable.
• More affordable tobacco products could attract new users especially among the youth.
• It would also mean foregone tax revenues for the Government especially at a time when the Government of India is looking forward to increasing the share of public spending on health

The decline in Tobacco Consumption

• The prevalence of tobacco use has decreased by six percentage points from 34.6% in 2009-10 to 28.6% in 2016-17.
• Under the National Health Policy 2017, India has set an ambitious target of reducing tobacco use by 30% by 2025.

WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control

• Governments adopt and implement the tobacco control provisions of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC).
• It is the first international treaty negotiated under the auspices of the WHO.
• It was adopted by the World Health Assembly (apex decision making body of WHO) on 21^st May 2003 and entered into force on 27^th February 2005.
• It was developed in response to the globalization of the tobacco epidemic and is an evidence-based treaty that reaffirms the right of all people to the highest standard of health.
• The FCTC’s measures to combat tobacco use include:

1. Price and tax measures.
2. Large, graphic warnings on tobacco packages.
3. 100% smoke-free public spaces.
4. A ban on tobacco marketing.
5. Support for smokers who want to quit.
6. Prevention of tobacco industry interference.

Way Forward

(1) Opportunities in Budget

• The government should take a considerate view of public health and significantly increase excise taxes — either basic excise duty or National Calamity Contingent Duty (NCCD) — on all tobacco products.

• Fixing an excise tax of at least ₹1 per stick of bidis while aiming for a significant increase in the excise tax of cigarettes and smokeless tobacco products.
• Taxation should achieve a significant reduction in the affordability of tobacco products to reduce tobacco use prevalence and facilitate India’s march towards sustainable development goals.

(2) Role of GST Council

• There is absolutely no public health rationale why a product as harmful as a bidi does not have a cess levied on it under the GST or why the specific cess applied on cigarettes has remained unchanged for four years in the face of increasing inflation.

• GST Council meetings must strive to keep public health ahead of the interests of the tobacco industry and significantly increase either the GST rates or the GST compensation cess rates applied on all tobacco products.
• The aim should be to arrest the increasing affordability of tobacco products in India and also rationalise tobacco taxation under the GST.

(3) Tobacco Control Laws

• It is scientifically established that if a person is kept away from tobacco till the age of 21 and above, there is a very high probability that he/she will remain tobacco-free for the rest of their life.
• The experts have urged the government to increase the legal age of sale of tobacco products from 18 to 21 by amending the Cigarettes and Other Tobacco Products Act (COTPA), 2003.
• Also, imposing a comprehensive ban on tobacco advertising and banning sale of single sticks of cigarettes/bidis would go a long way in preventing children and youth from initiating tobacco use.
• At least 14 countries (Ethiopia, Guam, Honduras, Japan, Kuwait, Mongolia, Palau, Philippines, Samoa, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Uganda, and the U.S.) have now increased the minimum age to 21 for buying tobacco products.
• At least 86 countries have banned the sale of single stick cigarettes to control their easy accessibility and affordability to youth.

(4) Educating Children

• The role of teachers is most crucial in creating awareness among children and their parents about harm due to tobacco use and for shaping the attitude of children in this regard.
• The more and the sooner awareness is created among children about harms due to tobacco use, the better will be the outcomes in terms of reduction in the prevalence of tobacco use among children and consequently among adults.
• Harmful effects of tobacco use should be incorporated in school curricula at various levels starting right from the primary school level.

Conclusion

The aim should be to arrest the increasing affordability of tobacco products in India and also rationalize tobacco taxation under the GST.

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Context

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put global commodity markets in a tizzy. It is now threatening to push up farming costs and send food prices soaring. Food inflation in India may thus soon enter doubledigit territory. Let’s takes a look at the impact and other aspects of the issue.

Household budget hit

If the conflict in Ukraine worsens, India could end up exporting more wheat, thereby pushing retail prices higher.

Back to basics: How is inflation measured?

1. In India, inflation is primarily measured by two main indices — WPI and CPI, which measure wholesale and retail-level price changes, respectively.
2. The CPI calculates the difference in the price of commodities and services such as food, medical care, education, electronics etc. which Indian consumers buy for use.
3. On the other hand, the goods or services sold by businesses to smaller businesses for selling further is captured by the WPI.
4. In India, both WPI and CPI are used to measure inflation.

Current Trend of Inflation in India

• The average headline Consumer Price Index-Combined (CPI-C) inflation in India moderated to 5.2 per cent in 2021-22 (April-December) from 6.6 per cent in the period of 2020-21.
• The CPI inflation remained range bound as food prices eased considerably due to the supply management response by the Government.

(1) Food Inflation

• Food inflation remained benign this span.
• While seasonality plays a significant role in the case of vegetables, random shocks like untimely rains also have an impact on their availability and prices.
• Proactive measures were taken to contain the price rise in pulses and edible oils that reported high inflation reflecting the impact of imported inflation in these commodities.
• Reduction in central excise and subsequent cuts in VAT by most States has also helped ease petrol and diesel prices.

(2) Wholesale Inflation

• Wholesale inflation based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI), after remaining very benign during the previous financial year on account of pandemic induced weakening of economic activity.
• This was attributable to the pick-up in economic activity, sharp increase in international prices of crude oil and other imported inputs, and high freight costs.

Issues: Divergence if figures

• The consequent divergence between CPI-C and WPI inflation during the year remained a subject of debate.
• This divergence can be explained by factors such as variations due to base effect, difference in scope and coverage of the two indices, their price collections, items covered and difference in commodity weights.
• Further, WPI is more sensitive to cost-push inflation led by imported inputs.
• With the gradual waning of base effect in WPI, the divergence in CPI-C inflation and WPI inflation is also expected to narrow down.

Global Inflation

• In 2021, inflation picked up globally as economic activity revived with opening-up of economies.
• The surge in energy, food, non-food commodities, and input prices, supply constraints, disruption of global supply chains, and rising freight costs across the globe stoked global inflation during the year.
• Crude oil prices also witnessed an upswing due to increased demand from recovering economies and supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).

A global comparison

• Advanced Economies include 40 economies and Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) include 156 economies as per IMF classification.
• In comparison to many EMDEs and advanced economies, consumer price inflation in India remained normal range bound in the recent months.
• As against this, inflation in USA touched 7.0 per cent in December 2021, the highest since 1982, driven largely by second hand vehicles and energy.
• While in the UK it hit a nearly 30 years high of 5.4 per cent in December 2021 mainly on account of rising food prices.

What is the Conflict?

• Contestation about post-Cold War central European territoriality and resurrecting a burnished Russian past is at the core of the Ukraine crisis.
• Ukraine and Russia share hundreds of years of cultural, linguistic and familial links.
• For many in Russia and in the ethnically Russian parts of Ukraine, the shared heritage of the countries is an emotional issue that has been exploited for electoral and military purposes.
• As part of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was the second-most powerful Soviet republic after Russia, and was crucial strategically, economically and culturally.
• The balance of power in the region, Ukraine being a crucial buffer between Russia and the West, Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership and Russian interests in the Black Sea accompanied by the protests in the Ukraine are the major causes of the ongoing conflict.

How will the Russia-Ukraine conflict impact India?

• The war in the Black Sea region, which is both a production and trade hub, has pushed prices of crude oil, wheat, corn, cooking oil, and fertilizers to new highs.
• Recently, crude prices touched a high of $139 per barrel, the highest since 2008.
• Global wheat prices have shot up 91% year-on-year (y-o-y), while corn prices rose by 33% y-o-y.
• As India is acutely dependent on imports of edible oil and fertilizers, consumers may see prices of these soaring to painful levels.
• Besides, an impending shortage of fertilizers in the country ahead of the Kharif planting season can lead to unrest in rural areas.

Can government grain stocks shield consumers?

• As on mid-February, the central stock of grains comprising rice and wheat was a staggering 54 million tonnes (mt), a surplus of more than 30 mt.
• It is more than what is required for the country’s public distribution system (PDS).
• With a record harvest of wheat set to hit the markets later this month, the government can liquidate its wheat stocks to keep prices in check.
• However, if global prices rise further and the conflict in Ukraine worsens, India could end up exporting more wheat, thereby pushing retail prices higher.
• Together with higher edible oil and fuel prices, food inflation could touch double-digit highs.

How will the price rise affect the farming community?

• Farmers can now expect prices at a premium to the minimum support prices (MSPs) announced by the government.
• Wholesale wheat prices are now higher than the MSP, while mustard prices, at ₹7,000 per quintal, are already 40% higher than the MSP and may cross the ₹10,000 mark.
• However, steep prices of inputs will add to the cost.

What is the impact of high crude prices?

• Historic data show a close correlation between a rise in crude oil and food prices.
• Crude prices impact food prices more than even food production. Crude prices are hovering in the $120-130 per barrel range.
• Even if this were to cool down to the $100-110 level, it would impact fertilizer prices and shipping costs significantly.
• High crude prices also lead to diversion of food crops to produce biofuels, thus pushing up crop prices.
• India has not raised fuel prices since November and a significant hike is expected soon.

What measures can the government take?

• Other than liquidating its public stock of grain, the government can restrict exports to keep cereal price inflation in check.
• As for edible oil, import duties have already been reduced significantly.
• Retail food inflation, which rose to a 13-month high of 5.4% in January, is likely to rise further.
• To ensure that the hunger situation does not get worse, it can expand PDS and enrol many more households.
• On the fertilizer front, the government may have to secure supplies from Canada, Israel, and China.

The overall impact of the Conflict?

• The Russia-Ukraine crisis will send cooking gas, petrol and other fuel bills soaring for Indian households and businesses. Higher oil prices add to freight/transportation costs.
• Depending on how long global oil prices remain elevated, the tensions could raise questions on the RBI’s credibility in making inflation projections and upset the government’s budget calculations, particularly fiscal deficit.
• The surge in crude oil prices will lead to an increase in India’s oil import bills, and gold imports could jump back up, keeping the rupee under pressure.
• India’s imports of petroleum products from Russia are only a fraction of its total oil import bill and, thus, replaceable.
• However, getting alternative sources for fertilisers and sunflower oil may not be as easy.
• Exports to Russia account for less than 1% of India’s total exports, but exports of pharmaceuticals and tea could face some challenges, as will shipments to CIS countries. 
• Freight rate hikes could make overall exports less competitive, too.

Way Forward

• It is important to reform the grain-management-cum-food-subsidy system to release precious resources for growth of agriculture.
• This should be combined with taking giant strides to raise productivity and producing more nutritious food while protecting the environment.
• The paradox of Indian policy making can be judged by looking at the Union budget for the 2022-23 which provides more than Rs 2 lakh crore for food subsidy while agri-research and development gets a paltry Rs 8,500 crore.
  • It is well-known that agri-R&D gives a much higher return in terms of promoting growth with competitiveness, and reduces poverty by making food cheaper and controlling food inflation.
  • Hence India should focus more on agri-research and development.
• On the fiscal side, the Government, which has been conservative in its revenue assumptions in the Budget, has the room to pre-emptively cut domestic fuel taxes to nip inflationary expectations, stoke faltering consumption levels and sustain India’s fragile post-Covid-19 recovery through this global churn.
• Buffer stock of pulses have been used to tackle price volatility of these commodities. Pulses from the buffer were used very effectively during the COVID-19 pandemic for supplying @ 1 kg per household per month free of cost to approx.

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Context

The war between Russia and Ukraine is not only being fought on the ground, but also in cyberspace. Cyberattacks on state-owned digital assets, including websites and banking services, have gradually increased in both frequency and sophistication, beginning with Distributed-denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks before escalation with the use of complex wiper malware and ransomware.

What has happened in Ukraine so far?

• Ukraine has been one of the primary targets of Russia since 2020. The recent spate of attacks started in mid-January and knocked out websites of the ministry of foreign affairs and the ministry of education.
• The attacks have intensified in the last few weeks and now, banks in Ukraine are being targeted.
• DDoS attacks disrupt online services by overwhelming websites with more traffic than their server can handle.

What is cyberwarfare?

• Another front of war: Cyberwarfare has emerged as a new form of retaliation or passive aggression deployed by nations that do not want to go to actual war but want to send a tough message to their opponents.
• A cyber-attack can maliciously disable computers, steal data, or use a breached computer as a launch point for other attacks.
• Cybercriminals use a variety of methods to launch a cyber-attack, including malware, phishing, ransomware, denial of service, among other methods.
• Case with India: In 2020, Gothic Panda and Stone Panda, two China-based hacker groups, targeted media and critical infra companies in India with large-scale attacks amid the border stand-off between India and China.
• For many countries, cyberwarfare is a never-ending battle as it allows them to constantly harass and weaken geopolitical rivals.

What do cyber attackers target?

Cyberattacks happen because organizations, state actors, or private persons want one or many things, like:

• Business financial data
• Clients lists
• Customer financial data
• Customer databases, including personally identifiable information (PII)
• Email addresses and login credentials
• Intellectual property, like trade secrets or product designs
• IT infrastructure access
• IT services, to accept financial payments
• Sensitive personal data
• US government departments and government agencies

When Did Cyber Warfare Start?

• Cyber warfare began in 2010 with Stuxnet, which was the first cyber weapon meant to cause physical damage. Stuxnet is reported to have destroyed 20% of the centrifuges Iran used to create its nuclear arsenal.
• Then, between 2014 and 2016, Russia launched a series of strategic attacks against Ukraine and the German parliament.
• During the same period, China hacked 21.5 million employee records, stealing information from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management.
• In 2017, the WannaCry attack impacted upwards of 200,000 computers in 150 countries. The attack targeted Windows computers with ransomware.
• The NotPetya attack originated in Ukraine, destroyed files, resulting in more than $10 billion in damage.

Why do cyber-attacks happen?

• In addition to cybercrime, cyber-attacks can also be associated with cyber warfare or cyberterrorism, like hacktivists.
• Motivations can vary, in other words. And in these motivations, there are three main categories: criminal, political and personal.
• Criminally motivated attackers seek financial gain through money theft, data theft or business disruption.
• Personally motivated, such as disgruntled current or former employees, will take money, data or a mere chance to disrupt a company’s system.
• Socio-political motivated attackers seek attention for their causes. As a result, they make their attacks known to the public—also known as hacktivism.
• Other cyber-attack motivations include espionage, spying—to gain an unfair advantage over competitors—and intellectual challenge.

Which countries are behind state-backed cyberattacks?

• Russia is one of the top perpetrators of state-backed cyberattacks.
• According to an October 2021 report by Microsoft Corp., Russia accounted for 58% of state-backed attacks worldwide, followed by North Korea (23%), Iran (11%), and China (8%).
• North Korea is said to have built a cyber-army of 7,000 hackers.

Which companies are targeted and why?

• State-backed cyberattacks are usually carried out to steal state secrets, trade deals and weapons blueprint, or target large multinationals to steal their intellectual property (IP) and use it to build local industry.
• Cryptos are also on the radar now. North Korean hackers reportedly stole cryptos worth $400 million in 2021.
• However, when states launch cyberattacks on other states as a result of worsening of geopolitical relations, the target is usually critical infrastructure firms to disrupt economic activity.

How often is India targeted?

• Such cyberattacks rose 100% bet-ween 2017 and 2021, according to a global study by Hewlett-Packard and the University of Surrey.
• In 2019, the administrative network of the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant was hit by a malware attack by North Korea-backed Lazarus Group.
• China-backed hackers were believed to be behind a power outage in Mumbai in 2020.
• According to Black Lotus Labs, Pakistan-based hackers targeted power firms and one government organization in India in early 2021 using Remote Access Trojans.

What are common types of cyber-attacks?

Common types of cyber-attacks are:

(1) Backdoor Trojan

• A backdoor Trojan creates a backdoor vulnerability in the victim’s system, allowing the attacker to gain remote, and almost total, control.
• Frequently used to link up a group of victims’ computers into a botnet or zombie network, attackers can use the Trojan for other cybercrimes.

(2) Cross-site scripting (XSS) attack

• XSS attacks insert malicious code into a legitimate website or application script to get a user’s information, often using third-party web resources.

Denial-of-service (DoS)

• DoS and Distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks flood a system’s resources, overwhelming them and preventing responses to service requests, which reduces the system’s ability to perform.
• Often, this attack is a setup for another attack.

(3) DNS tunnelling

• Cybercriminals use DNS tunnelling, a transactional protocol, to exchange application data, like extract data silently or establish a communication channel with an unknown server, such as a command and control (C&C) exchange.

(4) Malware

• Malware is malicious software that can render infected systems inoperable. Most malware variants destroy data by deleting or wiping files critical to the operating system’s ability to run.

(5) Phishing

• Phishing scams attempt to steal users’ credentials or sensitive data like credit card numbers.
• In this case, scammers send users emails or text messages designed to look as though they’re coming from a legitimate source, using fake hyperlinks.

(6) Ransomware

• Ransomware is sophisticated malware that takes advantage of system weaknesses, using strong encryption to hold data or system functionality hostage.
• Cybercriminals use ransomware to demand payment in exchange for releasing the system. A recent development with ransomware is the add-on of extortion tactics.

(7) Zero-day exploit

• Zero-day exploit attacks take advantage of unknown hardware and software weaknesses. These vulnerabilities can exist for days, months or years before developers learn about the flaws.

What can cyber-attacks do?

• If successful, cyber-attacks can damage enterprises.
• They can cause valuable downtime, data loss or manipulation, and money loss through ransoms. Further, downtime can lead to major service interruptions and financial losses. For example:

• DoS, DDoS and malware attacks can cause system or server crashes.
• DNS tunnelling and SQL injection attacks can alter, delete, insert or steal data into a system.
• Phishing and zero-day exploit attacks allow attackers entry into a system to cause damage or steal valuable information.
• Ransomware attacks can disable a system until the company pays the attacker a ransom.

How cyber-attacks can be reduced?

• Organizations can reduce cyber-attacks with an effective cybersecurity system.
• Cybersecurity is the practice of protecting critical systems and sensitive information from digital attacks, involving technology, people and processes.
• An effective cybersecurity system prevents, detects and reports cyber-attacks using key cybersecurity technologies and best practices, including:

1. Identity and access management (IAM)
2. A comprehensive data security platform
3. Security information and event management (SIEM)
4. Offensive and defensive security services and threat intelligence

What are recent Cyber Attacks in news?

(1) Russia/Ukraine conflict

• Check Point Research (CPR) has released information on cyber-attacks that have been seen in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• In the first three days of battle, cyber-attacks on Ukraine’s government and military sector increased by an astounding 196%. The number of cyber-attacks on Russian businesses has climbed by 4%.
• Phishing emails in East Slavic languages grew sevenfold, with a third of those malicious phishing emails being sent from Ukrainian email addresses to Russian receivers.

(2) SolarWinds Sunburst Attack

• The world is now facing what seems to be a 5th generation cyber-attack – a sophisticated, multi-vector attack with clear characteristics of the cyber pandemic.
• Named Sunburst by researchers, this is one of the most sophisticated and severe attacks ever seen.
• The attack has been reported to impact major US government offices as well as many private sector organizations.
• This series of attacks was made possible when hackers were able to embed a backdoor into SolarWinds software updates.
• Over 18,000 companies and government offices downloaded what seemed to be a regular software update on their computers, but was actually a Trojan horse.

(3) HermeticWiper malware

• This was named after the false digital certificate used to sign the file, which is issued under the name of a company named Hermetica Digital Ltd.
• This is wiper malware which means it is designed to wipe the hard drives or system storage of the systems it infects.
• The malware used against Ukrainian targets misused legitimate drivers of popular disk management software to corrupt data on the infected machine.
• The wiper was used to target Ukrainian organisations.
• Due to this attack, customers of Privatbank, Ukraine’s largest state-owned bank, and Sberbank, another state-owned bank reported problems with online payments and the banks’ applications.
• The hosting provider for Privatbank and the Ukrainian army were among the attackers’ targets.

Way forward

• The need to be aware of the nature of the cyber threat and take adequate precautionary measures, has become extremely vital.
• New technologies such as artificial intelligence, Machine learning and quantum computing, also present new opportunities.
• Pressure also needs to be put on officials in the public domain to carry out regular vulnerability assessments and create necessary awareness of the growing cyber threat.
• It is time that cybersecurity as a specialised discipline becomes an integral component of any IT syllabus being taught within our university systems as well as outside.
• Coordination among CERTs of different countries. Ensure that vulnerable sections of our society do not fall prey to the evil designs of cyber criminals.
• Need for India to move on from IT security to cyber security.
• Organisations that are hit by cyber-attacks must inform law enforcement immediately instead of worrying about their reputations.
• Important to have crisis management plans so that it helps to react in a given situation.
• A dedicated industry forum for cyber security should be set up to develop trusted indigenous solutions to check cyber-attacks.

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Context

Latin America is generally understood to consist of the entire continent of South America in addition to Mexico, Central America, and the islands of the Caribbean whose inhabitants speak a Romance language such as Spanish, Portuguese, and French.

History of Indo-Latin American Ties

• India’s ties with certain Latin American nations are longstanding and Mexico was the first Latin American country to recognize India after its independence in 1947.
• When Fidel Castro ousted the Batista regime in Cuba in 1959, India was one of the first countries to recognize the new government, set-up an embassy in Havana and establish diplomatic relations.
• However, relations between India and Latin America did not gather momentum throughout most of India’s post-independence history.
• India and Latin American nations were both colonies of European powers. After achieving independence, both adopted socialist policies, which did little to enhance relations.
• Many Latin America and the Carribbean (LAC) countries joined the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM).
• India also supported LAC countries against United States (US) interventions in the United Nations (UN) and other multilateral gatherings, but this did not address the deficit in relationship.

Why does Latin America Matter?

• Energy demand is rising: In a view of India’s growing demand for energy and its interest in seeking overseas investments, Latin America attracts New Delhi’s interest. After all, the region is rich in extractive resources.
• Important markets: Given that three G20 economies, i.e. Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina are in Latin America, Indian businesses are keen to tap its expansive market.
  • During the last two decades, India’s trade with Latin American countries has grown substantially and its investments are diversified in sectors such as Information Technology (IT) and manufacturing.
  • Moreover, the region has emerged as an important market for the Indian pharmaceutical and automobile industries.
• China’s emergence in the region: Analysts within India’s strategic community are of the view that China is fast emerging as Latin America’s economic and strategic partner, and that India must begin expanding its own footprint in the region.
• India’s Soft Power is making difference: To its advantage, India’s status as a rising power, its economic growth, as well as its soft power in the form of its cultural and civilizational practices such as yoga have gained traction in Latin America.

Why Indo-Latin American Ties did not grow?

• Relations between India and Latin America did not gather momentum owing mainly to the geographical distance between the two regions, and differing domestic and international priorities.
• Thousands of miles away, Latin America played a small role in New Delhi’s strategic and geopolitical considerations.
• There has also been a lack of cultural, linguistic and diaspora connections between the two regions in the past.

Current Trade Relations with the LAC Region

• Following liberalisation of the Indian economy, Latin American governments and their private sectors saw opportunities in India’s growing market.
• Indian industries also discovered that some, middle-income countries of Latin America offered better markets than those of North America and Western Europe.
• Venezuela, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Argentina, Peru, Ecuador, the Dominican Republic, and Panama are currently India’s top ten trading partners in the LAC.
• There has been an upward swing in the relations between India and Mexico after Prime Minister’s visit to Mexico in June 2016, when both countries decided to upgrade bilateral relations to the level of ‘strategic partnership’.
• India is currently Mexico’s ninth most important global trading partner, after the US, India is Mexico’s largest supplier of automobiles.
• Brazil has historically been the cornerstone of India’s relations with Latin America, but recently there is a dip in bilateral trade.
• However, India has invested billions of dollars in Brazil’s hydrocarbon reserves and crude imports.

Significance of Indo-Latin American Ties

• India also exports a billion dollars’ worth of generic medicines to Latin America, which has helped these countries reduce the cost of healthcare.

• The entry of Indian generic pharmaceuticals in Latin America over the last two decades has also put pressure on local and multinational companies to reduce their prices.
• Latin American firms have invested about a billion dollars in India in areas such as soft drinks, multiplexes, theme parks, and auto parts.
• Latin American software firms have also established development and delivery centres in India, employing over a thousand Indian software engineers
• Latin America has also emerged as a key contributor to India’s energy security.
  • India now imports 20% of its crude oil from Brazil, Columbia, Mexico and Venezuela
  • In 2012, India overtook China as the largest Asian buyer of Venezuelan oil.
• India also constitutes one of the largest suppliers of IT services to Latin America
  • Over 35,000 Latin Americans are employed in Indian IT companies operating in the region
  • New Delhi is also actively promoting official policies intended to further expand Indian IT services in Latin America.

Countering Chinese Expansion in the Region

• Although India has steadily expanded its footprint in Latin American countries over the past several years, it is still dwarfed by China’s immense presence in the region.
• Many Latin Americans governments resent Chinese imports, which flood their markets at the cost of local businesses. They are also worried by their growing dependence on Chinese investments.
• By contrast, India’s modest trade and investments are welcomed with virtually no opposition. This gives New Delhi an unexpected, long-term competitive advantage over China.

India’s interests in Latin America

(1) Economic

• Latin America is also very rich in minerals such as copper, lithium, iron ore, gold and silver. It gives India an opportunity to increase investments for their extraction as well as for their imports at cheaper rates.
• India’s exports to Latin America increased by 9.6% in 2018-19 (April to March) reaching $13.16 billion from $12 billion in 2017-18.

(2) Strategic 

• The region is very important for India in order to achieve its global ambitions such as in order to pursue its membership of the UNSC, the NSG and at various other negotiations like climate change, terrorism, trade, etc
• India is cooperating with Brazil at platforms like BRICS, IBSA which has provided an alternative platform for developing countries and reduces their dependence on existing institutions controlled by west.

(3) Energy security

• Currently India sources 15% of its crude oil from Latin America countries.
• Latin America is also an important partner in the India led International Solar Alliance.

(4) Food security

• Latin America region is five times that of India and only has half as much population.
• India is importing pulses and oil seeds from many of African and Southeast Asian countries at very high costs.

Why India should expand ties with Latin American countries

• Growth prospect: With a collective GDP of more than $6 trillion, and a combined population of more than 600 million, half of which is under the age of thirty, Latin America constitutes a dynamic, growing and resource-rich part of the world with huge economic prospects for India.
• Food Security: Latin America can also contribute towards food security. The region is five times the size of India and has only half the population. India is currently importing pulses and oilseeds from other countries at high costs.
• Cheaper imports: Latin America is also very rich in minerals such as copper, lithium, iron ore, gold and silver, and could give India an opportunity to increase investments for their extraction as well as for their import at cheaper rates.

Way Forward

• Bringing India and Latin America together will require effective institutional framework as well as businesses and people-to-people networks.
• India must also promote Latin American studies, invest in shipping industries, and conclude preferential trade agreements and free trade agreements at the earliest.
• Latin American languages must be encouraged in India to incentivise Indian professionals to take jobs in these countries, and to promote trading ties.
• The commerce ministry should revive its ‘Focus:LAC’ programme, which has previously helped encourage and support Indian exporters to explore business opportunities in the region.

Conclusion

• Latin America is being increasingly considered as an important investment destination due to its growing industrial and manufacturing strength.
• India offers immense opportunities for collaboration, trade and investment for partner countries from Latin America. Latin American nations have long been seeking more diplomatic representation from India.
• Despite recent improvements on many fronts, however, both India and the LAC countries face some formidable challenges.
• They still have some of the highest inequality indices in the world, as well as serious deficiencies in infrastructure, technology, innovation and competitiveness.
• India and the LAC region could approach these challenges as opportunities to forge new partnerships to promote growth and development through increased trade and investment.

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Context

• It is being perceived as a tightrope walk for India, taking a more neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine war.
• It is widely said that India’s statement at the UN lacked condemnation of the Russian invasion.
• War makes no sense to anyone. But during these circumstances, we may raise one question:

“Why the West is pretending to need India against the war in Ukraine?”

Ans. For a country that claims to be a vishwaguru or world teacher, India’s shortsighted stance on critical geopolitical is a big surprise to the world.

Another narrative is– The west in spite of averting the crisis alone, is seeking our help. They are just trying to demonize India (as they usually did). They understand India’s interests and compulsions perfectly.

India-Ukraine Relations: A backgrounder

• With a population of over 40 million and an area of about 600,000 sq km, Ukraine is one of the largest countries in Europe.
• India has an extensive bilateral relationship with Ukraine, spanning all spheres of cooperation. India was one of the first countries to recognize Ukraine.
• India recognized the Republic of Ukraine as a sovereign country in December 1991 and established diplomatic relations in January 1992.
• The Embassy of India in Kyiv was opened in May 1992.  Ukraine opened its Mission in Delhi in February 1993 – its first in Asia.

(1) Trade

• Bilateral trade between the two countries has grown significantly in the last 25 years.
• As per data from the Indian government, the bilateral trade between the two nations stood at $2.3 billion so far this fiscal, compared with $2.5 billion in the last fiscal (FY21). 
• India is Ukraine’s largest export destination in the Asia-Pacific and the fifth largest overall export destination.

(2) Diplomacy

• India and Ukraine have signed several MOUs/Agreements in many spheres.
• These include Diplomatic relations, visa matters, consular matters, trade and commercial matters, space, science and technology, defense, etc.

(3) Culture

• There is a great interest in Indian culture in Ukraine at the public level, covering various aspects such as dances, yoga, philosophy, Ayurveda and spirituality.
• Many Indian movies have also been shot in Ukraine, for example most recent being the ‘Bahubali 2: The Conclusion’.
• A small but vibrant Indian community lives in Ukraine, comprising mostly of business professionals and students.
• There are about 18,000 Indian students studying in Ukraine, mainly in the field of medicine.

Why is Russia invading Ukraine now?

• Undoing historic injustice: President Putin has frequently accused Ukraine of being taken over by extremists, ever since its pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, was ousted in 2014 after months of protests against his rule.
• Ukraine’s affinity towards West and NATO: Russia has long resisted Ukraine’s move towards the European Union and the West’s defensive military alliance, NATO.
• So-called ‘oppression’ in Ukraine: It is now clear that Russia is seeking to overthrow Ukraine’s democratically elected government. Its aim is that Ukraine be freed from oppression and “cleansed of the Nazis”.

Why is this war a no-lesser significant event?

Russia’s attack on Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is a clear violation of the rules-based international order.

• First war of the century: These are terrifying times for the world, witnessing a major power invading a European neighbour for the first time since World War II.
• Annexation of a democratic nation: For Europe’s leaders, this invasion has brought some of the darkest hours since the 1940s.
• Covid disruptions: The global economic landscape, in a post-Covid situation, is in a shambles.
• Intense militarization: The military industrial complex everywhere will be strengthened. As more and more armament is used up in the conflicts and more arms are manufactured.
• Heading up towards mutually assured destruction

India’s position on this war so far

(1) India is subtle to Russia

• New Delhi has taken a subtle pro-Moscow position on the question of Russian attacks against Ukraine.
• This pro-Russia tilt is not just the position of the Indian government, but is something, somewhat surprisingly, shared by much of the Indian strategic community as well.

(2) Evacuation of Indians remain a priority

• Ukraine has sought India’s support in its fight against the Russian forces.
• In an emotional appeal, Ukrainian ambassador urged PM Modi for a personal intervention.
• Hundreds of Indian students remain stranded in Ukraine and its border which is seemingly India’s topmost priority.

How would the war impact India?

(1) Economic Impact

• This war has immediate consequences for global trade, capital flows, financial markets and access to technology.
• It can hurt Asia through multiple channels, such as:
• Tighter global financial conditions
• Elevated uncertainty and the risk of weaker global demand
• Higher commodity prices, especially oil

(2) Impact on diaspora

• According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Education and Science, there are around 18,095 Indian students in the country. In 2020, 24 per cent of its overseas students were from India.
• Ukrainian medical colleges are a godsend for students who are unable to get seats in government colleges or afford the hefty prices charged by private institutions in India. 

(3) Geo-political impact

(discussed below)

India’s dilemma

• India may not share a border with either Russia or Ukraine, and as many intellectual elites have already argued, the case for New Delhi not taking sides is straightforward.
• The West’s critical sanctions will inhibit any nation (including India) from doing business with Russia and potentially diversify Russia-India ties.

India needs Russia

• Arms trade: Russia is one of India’s largest arms suppliers and a key strategic ally. More than half of India’s arms imports between 2016-2020 were from Russia.
• Independent foreign policy: India’s special and privileged strategic partnership with Russia as a totem of Indian strategic autonomy.
• Multi-polarity and institutional reforms: India shares Russia’s goal of a multipolar world. It is a member of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and of BRICS, a loose grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

What message has India’s silence conveyed?

• India is neither openly criticizing nor endorsing Russian actions.
• However, this radio silence is seen as an endorsement of war.

Why is India silent?

Ans. The elephant in the room is China. Because “Power often triumphs principles.”

• China’s political patronage to Russia: A deepening global crisis would allow Russia to deepen its ties with China for political support, market access and technology.
• Decline of US hegemony: A US-led international order now seems pretty much over, anchored as it was by financial imperialism through dollar-dependence, a petro-dollar market and via strategic military dominance.
• Open opportunism for China: It is likely to use this opportunity to exhaust America’s foreign policy attention-capital away from its strategic objectives in the Indo-Pacific and Europe.
• Balancing China: This circumstances could negatively affect the coordinated approach that Delhi seeks among like-minded partners to balance China.

Western narratives of India’s position

• Maintaining influence: India’s recent effort aims to “reclaim” or expand its “sphere of influence” in the Indian subcontinent.
• Endorsing unification through revivalism: It creates a rhetoric around the integrated creation of Akhand Bharat is part of the thought process of right wing factions.
• India’s territorial overtures for future: There have been voices of reclaiming Pakistan occupied Kashmir using the clouds of this war.

Is India doing a mistake?

• Russian justifications for its actions against Ukraine are similar to those Beijing makes versus India:
• Historical claims on territory
• Ethnic Linkages
• This military action would go against the respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty for which India frequently advocates.
• Moscow may or may not be able to moderate Chinese antagonism towards New Delhi.
• The hawks and the far right wing will gain popularity due to this war.

Threats remain to India

This war on Ukraine could have major implications for India’s strategic calculus:

• Increasing Chinese assertion: It will no doubt embolden China and its territorial ambitions.
• Sanctions on defense trade: India may be sanctioned by the US if it continues with the S-400 missile system deal, but also could extend to future defense purchases.
• Pakistan Proximity: Pressure from the West on Russia will move it closer to India’s adversaries, China and Pakistan.

Options for India

There are four potential options India can/could choose from:

1. Condemn
2. Support
3. Stay silent or
4. Express displeasure and call for diplomacy

The first option will pit India against Russia, the second will pit it against the U.S. and its allies, the third option will be read as pro-Russia, and the fourth option — which it has taken — is the least harmful.

Way forward

• Geopolitical priority: India’s Russia tilt should be seen not just as a product of its time-tested friendship with Moscow but also as a geopolitical necessity.
• Upholding morality: However, with the rise of right-wing populism and authoritarianism across the globe, moments such as this in history, warrant bold, corrective action – and more importantly, a principled, moral outlook.
• Upholding democratic principles: Silently siding with Russian imperial nostalgia, India’s “balanced posturing” and silent endorsement of the Russian president may hurt India’s credentials as a democratic republic.
• No factionist divisions: India must also make it clear to coercing countries that their “with us or against us” formulations are hardly constructive. There are no innocents in this conflict.