- Inflation in India: CPI, WPI, GDP Deflator, Inflation Rate
- Types of Inflation: Demand Pull, Cost Push, Stagflation, Structural Inflation, Deflation and Disinflation
- The Cost of Inflation
The SDGs are an inclusive agenda. They tackle the root causes of poverty and unite us together to make a positive change for both people and planet. “Poverty eradication is at the heart of the 2030 Agenda, and so is the commitment to leave no-one behind,” UNDP Administrator Achim Steiner said. “The Agenda offers a unique opportunity to put the whole world on a more prosperous and sustainable development path. In many ways, it reflects what UNDP was created for.”
The Goals
Goal 1: No Poverty
Targets
Goal 2: Zero Hunger
Targets
Goal 3: Good Health and Well Being
Targets
Goal 4: Quality Education
Targets
Goal 5: Gender Equality
Targets
Goal 6: Clean Water and Sanitation
Targets
Goal 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
Target
Goal 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
Targets
Goal 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
Targets
Goal 10: Reduce Inequalities
Targets
Goal 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
Targets
Goal 12: Responsible Production and Consumption
Targets
Goal 13: Climate Actions
Targets
Goal 14: Life Below Water
Targets
Goal 15: Life on land
Targets
Goal 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions
Targets
Goal 17: Partnership for the Goals
Targets
Finance
Technology
Capacity building
Trade
Systemic issues
In 2000, 189 nations made a promise to free people from extreme poverty and multiple deprivations. This pledge became the eight Millennium Development Goals to be achieved by 2015. In September 2010, the world recommitted itself to accelerate progress towards these goals.
The MDGs consists of eight goals, and these eight goals address myriad development issues. The eight (8) Goals are as under:
Eighteen (18) targets were set as quantitative benchmarks for attaining the goals. The United Nations Development Group (UNDG) in 2003 provided a framework of 53 indicators (48 basic + 5 alternative) which are categorized according to targets, for measuring the progress towards individual targets.
A revised indicator-framework drawn up by the Inter-Agency and Expert Group (IAEG) on MDGs came into effect in 2008. This framework had 8 Goals, 21 targets and 60 indicators. India has not endorsed this revised framework.
MDG and India Progress
MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger.
Target: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than one dollar a day.
India’s Progress:
Target: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger.
India’s Progress:
MDG 2: Achieve Universal Primary Education
Target: Ensure that by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary education.
India’s Progress:
MDG 3: Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women
Target: Eliminate gender disparity in primary, secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education, no later than 2015.
India’s Progress:
MDG 4: Reduce Child Mortality
Target: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five Mortality Rate.
India’s Progress:
MDG 5: Improved Mental Health
Target: Reduce by three quarters between 1990 and 2015, the Maternal Morality Ratio.
India’s Progress:
MDG 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and Other Diseases.
Target: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS.
India’s Progress:
Target: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of Malaria and other major diseases.
India’s Progress:
MDG 7: Ensure Environment Sustainability.
Target: Integrate the principle of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources.
India’s Progress:
TARGET: Halve, by 2015 the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation
India’s Progress:
TARGET: By 2020, to have achieved a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers
India’s Progress:
MDG 8: Develop a Global Partnership for Development
Target: In co-operation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communication.
India’s Progress
India’s Progress in a Nutshell
Green GDP and India
The four pillars of GNH:
The Nine Domains of GNH
Criticism of GNH
Why do we require HDI?
Method of calculating HDI
(a)Life Expectancy Index assessment
(b) Education Index assessment
Education Index (EI) assessment is composite of two indices. They are
1. Mean Years of Schooling Index (MYSI)
2. Expected Years of Schooling Index (EYSI)
(C) Income Index assessment
How to calculate Human Development Index as per new method?
Formula to calculate Human Development Index (HDI) = (Life Expectancy Index X Education Index X Income Index) 1/3
New Human Development Index (HDI) is geometric mean of Life Expectancy Index (LEI), Education Index (EI) and Income Index (II).
After this calculation total value will be between 0 and 1. As per the values gained, countries will be placed in the list of the division of countries. They are divided into very high human development, high human development, medium high human development and low high human development countries
Global Trends in HDI
Strength of HDI index
Weaknesses of HDI index
The HDI and India
Nominal GDP is the money value of all the goods and services produced in a year. Nominal GDP is calculated at the current market prices. However, Nominal GDP does not truly indicate the real performance of the economy as the prices changes over time.
Back to Basics: Suppose, India as a country only produced cars in its economy. In the year 2016, India produced 100 Cars which were sold at RS 100,000 each. India’s GDP in this case will be RS 10,00,00,00 (100*100000).
In the year 2017, supposedly due to demonetization India only produced only 90 Cars, but their price has risen to RS 15,0000. India’s GDP in the year 2017 will be 1,35,00,000.
The Increase from RS 10,00,00,00 to RS 1,35,00,000 is the nominal GDP. The GDP of India has risen not because we have produce more units of Car but because the prices of the car have increased.
Therefore, the Nominal GDP does not capture the changes in the real economy.
Real GDP
The real GDP is calculated as the money value of all the goods and services produced in a year using the constant set of market prices that have prevailed in the certain chosen base year. The Real GDP is calculated at a fixed set of prices so that only the changes in real output or real production of goods and services is captured.
Back to Basics: Suppose, India as a country only produced cars in its economy. In the year 2016, India produced 100 Cars which were sold at RS 100,000 each. India’s GDP in this case will be RS 10,00,00,00 (100*100000).
In the year 2017, supposedly due to demonetization India only produced only 90 Cars. If we take the year 2011-12 as the base year and assumes that the price of the car in that year was RS 90,000. Then, India’s Real GDP will be 90*90,000= 81,00,000.
The Nominal GDP is RS 1,35,00,000 whereas the Real GDP is RS 81,00,000. The difference is due to the prices which have risen from 90,000 in the base year to RS 15,00,00 in the current year.
Limitations of the Concept of GDP/Economic Growth
Note for Students: The following examples will make it clear why GDP is not a perfect measure of Well Being.
Now tell me is this increase in the GDP is worth considering? The GDP has risen due to wrong reason, i.e., increase in crime.
In the above case, the GDP fails to capture the deteriorating situation of the society.
The two-argument provided above are also valid for the shortcomings of growth.
Economic Growth is a monetary concept. It only takes into account the value of goods and services produced in the economy. It tells how much a country has progressed in terms of economic indicators like GDP, Per Capita Income, Production, employments etc. It measures only quantifiable outcomes.
Let’s Understand Growth
The First Stage:
The story so far is very impressive a business-friendly government with pro-business policy increased growth and employment.
The Second Stage:
The Third Stage
The Fourth and Final stage: The Crisis
The above model is just an easy explanation of a complex system. Is it really the pro-business policies of the government that have led to the crisis?
The answer is no. It is the lack of balanced policy or a single point focus on the growth that has led to the crisis.
What has the Government missed in the process?
The First lesson, therefore, is “Along with the policies to promote Physical Capital the government must promote the policies of Human Capital”. Therefore, the first difference, “Promotion of Physical Capital is a growth oriented measure, but promoting the Human capital along with Physical Capital is a development oriented measure”.
If for example, when the first stage boom had happened, the government should have adopted the policy of promoting new firms by encouraging competition, by providing the new firms with opportunities in the form of lower taxes, interest-free capital. Instead, the government followed the existence firms demand of more rebates, more deregulation which created a monopoly like the situation with restricting enter. The new firms would have competed with the older firms, and in the process, the poor performing firms would have thrown out of the market, and the best surviving firms could have produced efficiently and at a much lower price.
The second lesson, therefore, is “The role of government is to promote competition and healthy environment for the firms to operate and not to practice Crony Capitalism in nexus with old firms”. Therefore, the policy of excessive deregulation along with creating a monopoly kind structure is a growth oriented move, but promoting and encouraging new firms through fair competition is a development oriented measure”.
The Third lesson, therefore, is “A balanced approach towards resource redistribution does more good as compare to a one-sided measure of promoting business welfare”. The governments must force the firms to provide essential services in the areas of the land takeover. Therefore, land acquisition along with welfare of the region is a development measure.
Therefore, the fourth lesson “Labour Market reforms carried with the welfare of the labour is a development oriented measure”.
The story in a nutshell, therefore, is “Growth is only a necessary condition and not a sufficient condition for promotion of well-being and raising the standard of living of the people”.
ECONOMIC GROWTH | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT |
Economic growth refers to an increase over time in a country`s real output of goods and services (GNP) or real output per capita income. | Economic development implies an upward movement of the entire social system in terms of income, savings and investment along with progressive changes in socioeconomic structure of country (institutional and technological changes) |
Economic Growth relates to a gradual increase in one of the components of Gross Domestic Product: consumption, government spending, investment, net exports. | Development relates to the growth of human capital indexes, a decrease in inequality figures, and structural changes that improve the general population’s quality of life. |
It is a Quantitative concept. Increases in real GDP. | It is a Qualitative concept. it includes HDI (Human Development Index), gender- related index (GDI), Human poverty index (HPI), infant mortality, literacy rate etc. |
It only Brings quantitative changes in the economy | Its effect is that it Brings Qualitative changes in the economy. |
Economic growth is a more relevant metric for progress in developed countries. But it’s widely used in all countries because growth is a necessary condition for development.
Growth is concerned with increase in the economy’s output |
Economic development is more relevant to measure progress and quality of life in developing nations. like India where there is rampant inequality in the distribution of wealth.
Concerned with structural changes in the economy for example generally economic development is associated with fall in the share of Agriculture in the total GDP, while the increase in the share of manufacturing in the total GDP. |
Measures of Economic Development
Green GDP and India
Gender Inequality Index
Gross National Happiness Index
Criticism of GNH
Human Development Index
Why do we require HDI?
Method of calculating HDI
(a)Life Expectancy Index assessment
(b) Education Index assessment
Education Index (EI) assessment is composite of two indices. They are
1. Mean Years of Schooling Index (MYSI)
2. Expected Years of Schooling Index (EYSI)
(C) Income Index assessment
How to calculate Human Development Index as per new method?
Formula to calculate Human Development Index (HDI) = (Life Expectancy Index X Education Index X Income Index) 1/3
New Human Development Index (HDI) is geometric mean of Life Expectancy Index (LEI), Education Index (EI) and Income Index (II).
After this calculation total value will be between 0 and 1. As per the values gained, countries will be placed in the list of the division of countries. They are divided into very high human development, high human development, medium high human development and low high human development countries
Global Trends in HDI
Strength of HDI index
Weaknesses of HDI index
The HDI and India
Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has released Operational Guidelines for Planning and Implementation of Family Participatory Care (FPC) for improving newborn health.
The new guidelines have been released by the government for improving health of babies in special units across the country.
FPC has emerged as an important concept of health care which provides for partnership between health care staff and families for care of sick newborns. Under FPC, the capacities of parents-attendants are built in newborn care through a structured training programme (audio -visual module and a training guide). The staff at newborn care unit will provide continuous supervision and support. Provisions for infrastructure and logistics strengthening required for implementing FPC are ensured in the annual state Program Implementation Plan (PIP).
Sick and newborn are highly vulnerable and require careful nurturing in order to survive the neonatal period and first year of life. In recent years, health experts have found that if parents are trained during the stay of their babies in hospital to provide supportive care to sick newborns, it helps in not only improving survival of babies after discharge but also provides for psycho-social and developmental needs of the newborn.
In this regard, Family Participatory Care has emerged as an important concept of health care which provides for partnership between health care staff and families in care of sick newborns admitted in the SNCU. The move is expected to bring down infant mortality.
National income of a country can be defined as the total market value of goods and services produced in the economy in a year.
The three-important measure of calculating National Income of a country are:
Circular Flow of Income in a Three Sector Economy
Saving and Investment in the Circular Flow
Government Sector in the Circular Flow
National Income and National Product
Gross National Product | Gross Domestic Product |
GNP is the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a year in a country. | GDP is the value of all final goods and services produced by the normal residents as well as non-residents in the domestic territory of the country but does not includes Net Factor Income from Abroad. |
The important thing to remember about GNP is that it is measured at market prices/value. | The important point to remember is whatever is produced in India, whether by an Indian or foreign national is part of Indian GDP. |
To calculate GNP, only the final goods and services produced in an economy during in a given year must be counted. No intermediate goods and services should be included in GNP. | The key difference between GNP and GDP is the exclusion of Net Factor Income Abroad from GDP. |
GNP includes only those goods and services that are produced by the residents of India whether working in India or Abroad. | GDPMP = GNPMP – Net Factor Income from Abroad. |
Net Factor Income from Abroad:
The sum of factor incomes like rent, wages, interest and profits generated within the domestic country is called domestic factor income. The domestic factor income includes both incomes earned by residents as well as non-residents/foreigners working in India. At the same time, Indian go abroad to work and earn wages, salaries, profits and rents. Now the Net Factor income abroad= the difference between factor income received by the residents of India working abroad and the factor income paid to the foreign residents for working in India. GNP includes Net Factor Income Abroad |
GDP = Consumption + Gross Private Investment + Government Expenditure + Net Exports
Net Exports= Exports – Imports. If we want to calculate Net Domestic Product from the GDP, then we just have to minus depreciation from the Gross Private Investment. NDP= Consumption + Net Private Investment + Government Expenditure + Net Exports. Where, Net Private Investment= Gross Private Investment – Depreciation. |
GNP= Consumption + Gross Private Investment + Government Expenditure + Net Exports + Net Factor Income from Abroad. |
Net National Product or National Income
National Income at Factor Cost
Personal Income
GNP | GDP | NNPMP | NNPFC | Personal Income |
GNPMP= Consumption + Gross Private Investment + Government Expenditure + Net Exports + Net Factor Income from Abroad. | GDPMP = GNPMP – Net Factor Income from Abroad. | NNPMP = GNPMP – Depreciation. | NNPFC = NNPMP – Indirect Taxes + Subsidies. | Personal Income= National Income (NNPFC) – (Undistributed Corporate Profits+ Corporate Taxes + Social Security Contribution) + (Transfer Payments). |
By
Himanshu Arora
Doctoral Scholar in Economics & Senior Research Fellow, CDS, Jawaharlal Nehru University
The Consequences of Jobless Growth in India
Unemployment in India: Causes
Consequences of Unemployment.
Back to Basics. What is Unemployment?
Unemployment is a phenomenon that occurs when a person who is capable of working and is actively searching for the work is unable to find work.
People who are either unfit for work due to physical reason or do not want to work are excluded from the category of unemployed.
The most frequent measure of unemployment is unemployment rate. The unemployment rate is defined as a number of unemployed people divided by the number of people in the labour force.
Labour Force: Persons who are either working (or employed) or seeking or available for work (or unemployed) during the reference period together constitute the labour force.
Measure of Unemployment in India
Usual Status Approach | Weekly Status Approach | Daily Status Approach |
Usual Status approach records only those persons as unemployed who had no gainful work for a major time during the 365 days preceding the date of survey and are seeking or are available for work.
The status of activity on which a person has spent the relatively long time of the preceding 365 days prior to the date of survey is considered to be the usual principal activity status of the person. |
The weekly status approach records only those persons as unemployed who had no gainful work for a major time during the seven days preceding the date of survey. | In the Daily status approach, current activity status of the person with regard to whether employed or unemployed or outside labour force is recorded for each day in the reference week. The measure adopts half day as a unit of measurement for estimating employment or unemployment. |
The Usual Status captures long-term unemployment in the economy. | The weekly status approach captures both the long-term open chronic unemployment and the seasonal unemployment. | The approach is most inclusive than the other two. Since it also captures the days of unemployment of those who are recorded as employed on the weekly status approach. |
The Usual Principal Activity status (UPS), written as Usual Status (PS), is determined using the majority time criterion and refers to the activity status on which h/she spent longer part of the year.
Principal usual activity status is further used to classify him in/out the labour force. For instance, if an individual was ‘working’ and/or was ‘seeking or available for work’ for a major part of the year preceding the date of the survey then h/she is considered as being part of the ‘Labour Force’. For example, if an individual reports as having worked and sought/available for work for seven months during the year or having sought or available for work for seven months then h/she is classified as being in the Labour Force. |
A person is considered to be employed if he or she pursues any one or more of the gainful activities for at least one-hour on any day of the reference week. On the other hand, if a person does not pursue any gainful activity, but has been seeking or available for work, the person is considered as unemployed. | A person who works for 4 hours or more but up to 8 hours on a day is recorded as employed for the full day.
A person who works for 1 hour or more but less than 4 hours is recorded as employed for the half day. Accordingly, a person having no gainful work even for 1 hour in a day is described as unemployed for a full day. |
Types of Unemployment
Frictional Unemployment | Cyclical Unemployment |
The minimum amount of unemployment that prevails in an economy due to workers quitting their previous jobs and are searching for the new jobs is called Frictional Unemployment. | Cyclical unemployment is due to deficiency or fall in effective demand from consumers which leads to fall in production and low demand for labour.
Cyclical unemployment is a type of unemployment which is related to the cyclical trends of booms and recessions called as the business cycle. If an economy is doing good, cyclical unemployment will be at its lowest and will be the highest if the economy faces recession. |
The major reasons for frictional unemployment are lack of information about the availability of jobs and lack of mobility on the part of workers (it means workers are not willing to travel to a distant place or a new state for employment). | The major reason for this type of unemployment is lack of demand in the economy and slowdown of economic activity.
When the demand for goods and services is low, then the firms stop the production due to rise in the unsold stock. As a result of stopping production, the firms lay off workers and unemployment rises. |
Frictionally unemployed person remains unemployed for a very short period of time. | This type of unemployment is for a long period of time and worker remains unemployed during the entire phase of slow down or recession. |
This type of unemployment is of voluntary nature. | This type of unemployment is of involuntary nature. |
Voluntary Unemployment | Involuntary Unemployment |
Voluntary unemployment refers to a situation where workers are either not seeking for work or are in transition from one job to another (quitting one job in search of another better job). | Involuntary unemployment refers to a situation where workers are seeking work and are willing to work but are unable to get work. |
Voluntary unemployment remains in an economy during all the time. As there will always be some workers, who quit their previous jobs in search of new ones. | Involuntary unemployment happens in an economy during the time of depression and fall in aggregate demand for goods and services. |
Structural Unemployment | Seasonal Unemployment |
Structural unemployment refers to a situation which arises due to change in the structure of the economy. Example: An economy transforms itself from a Labour intensive economy to a Capital intensive economy.
Structural unemployment usually occurs due to the mismatch of skills. Example, due to advance technological progress, the production of cars is done through robotic machines rather than traditional Machines. As a result, those workers who do know how to operate the new and advanced machines will be removed. The unemployment happened because the current workers do not have the required skills as wanted by their employers. |
Seasonal unemployment occurs during certain seasons of the year. In some industries and occupations like agriculture, holiday resorts etc., production activities take place only in some seasons.
Therefore, they offer employment for only a certain period of time in a year. People engaged in such type of activities may remain unemployed during the off-season. |
Technological Advancement, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Mechanisation and Automation are the main causes of Structural unemployment. | Seasonal unemployment mainly occurs in Agricultural sector, Tourism sector and in factories producing seasonal goods. |
Back to Basics: Disguised Unemployment
Example: In a piece of 5 Acres land, 5 family members are employed to grow 100 Kgs of rice. The maximum rice that can be grown on the land is 100 Kg only. Now, the family decides to employ additional two members of its family on the same land. In such a scenario, the additional two members will not contribute anything in production since maximum production has already been reached. The additional two members will only end up congesting the farm land. Hence, they both are disguisedly unemployed.
Member 1 20 Kg
Member 2 20 Kg
Member 3 20 Kg
Member 4 20 Kg
Member 5 20 Kg
Since maximum output of 100 Kg is already reached.
Member 6 & 7 contribution will be 0 Kg.
The situation of disguised unemployment is most prevalent in the agriculture sector of the underdeveloped countries. The key idea is that the amount of population in agriculture which can be removed from it without any change in the method of cultivation, without leading to any reduction in output.
Back to Basics: Under Employment.
Underemployment is the most dangerous kind of unemployment in an economy. Underemployment is a situation under which People with a higher level of skills are employed in less productive jobs. It simply means that the Labour force of the economy is not fully utilised as per their skills and experience.
Example: an individual with an engineering or management degree working as a clerk or accountant in a firm or a social science graduate working as a pizza delivery boy.
The consequence of Underemployment.
The constitution does not describe the term backward classes.
It is up to the centre and the states to postulate the classes that belong to this group. However, it is understood that classes that are not represented adequately in the services of the state can be termed, backward classes.
Further, the President can, under Art. 340 constitute a commission to investigate the condition of socially and educationally backward classes. Based on this report, the president may specify the backward classes. Commission for Enquiring into Conditions of Backward Classes
There are numerous legal provisions to enhance the status of women which is a more susceptible group in Indian society.
In the case of Unni Krishnan vs the State of AP, SC held that right to education for children between 6 to 14 yrs of age is a fundamental right as it flows from Right to Life. After this decision, education was made a fundamental right explicitly through 86th amendment in 2002.
Recently the list of hazardous processes has been updated to include domestic, hotel, and restaurant work.
Several PILs have been filed in the benefit of children. For example, in MC Mehta vs the State of TN, SC has held that children cannot be employed in match factories or which are directly connected with the process as it is hazardous for the children.
In the case of Lakshmi Kant Pandey vs the Union of India, Justice Bhagvati has laid down guidelines for adoption of Indian children by foreigners.
Age and high levels of economic necessity and/or disability combine to create high levels of vulnerability to long-lasting poverty. While old age pension schemes are in place neither the small amounts made available nor the hassle of accessing them make this a solution to the problem of chronic poverty among the elderly.
With the high occurrence of chronic ailments and health care needs of the elderly, declining family size, migration and breakdown of traditional family structures that provided support, this group of the population is awfully vulnerable to poverty.
In Constitution of India, entry 24 in list III of Schedule IV deals with the “Welfare of Labour, including conditions of work, provident funds, liability for workmen’s compensations, invalidity and Old age pension and maternity benefits.
Further, Item No. 9 of the State List and Item No. 20, 23 and 24 of the Concurrent List relates to old age pension, social security and social insurance, and economic and social planning.
Article 41 of the Directive Principle of the State Policy has particular relevance to Old Age Social Security. According to this Article, “the State shall, within the limits of its economic capacity and development, make effective provision for securing the right to work, to education and to public assistance in case of undeserved want.”