Author: B2B

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Importance of Bhutan for India

1. Bhutan in a buffer state between India and china. Bhutan shares a 470 km long border with China. Traditionally, the Himalayan kingdom acted as a buffer state between the India and China.
2. Strategic importance: The Chumbi Valley is situated at the trijunction of Bhutan, India and China and is 500 km away from the “Chicken’s neck” in North Bengal, which connects the northeast with rest of the country.
3. To contain insurgency in North-East: Bhutan has in the past cooperated with India and helped to flush out militant groups like United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) from the Himalayan nation.
4. To check Chinese inroad in Bhutan: China is interested in establishing formal ties with Thimphu, where it does not yet have a diplomatic mission. Bhutan is strategically important for both India and China. Chinese territorial claims in western Bhutan are close to the Siliguri Corridor.

 

• Energy security: Hydro-electric power generated by Bhutan’s run-of-the river dams is the economic bedrock of the India-Bhutan relationship.  India has helped finance the dams through a combination of aid and loans and buys the excess electricity at very low prices.Three hydro-electric projects (HEPs) totaling 1416 MW, (336 MW Chukha HEP, the 60 MW Kurichu HEP, and the 1020 MW Tala HEP), are already exporting electricity to India.In 2008 the two governments agreed to further develop a minimum of 10,000 MW hydropower generation capacities by 2020 and identified ten more projects.

 

Indo-Bhutanese relationship: Historical Perspective

• With land area of roughly 38,394 sq km and located between India and China, Bhutan is a small Himalayan kingdom with a total population of 6,95,819 and is of great strategic consequence for India’s neighbour-hood policy.
• Bhutan’s population can be conveniently categorised into three groups: the Sharchops, Lhotshampas and the Ngalungs (often called Drukpas). While the Sharchops and the Ngalungs live in the Eastern and Western Bhutan respectively, Lhotshampas reside in the Southern region. The Ngalungs are the ruling group who control the monarchy and the National Assembly, with a prominent place in the economy.

 

For much of its history, Bhutan has preserved its isolation from the outside world, staying out of international organisations and maintaining few bilateral relations. Bhutan became a protectorate of British India after signing a treaty in 1910 allowing the British to “guide” its foreign affairs and defence.

A protectorate, in its inception adopted by modern international law, is a dependent territory that has been granted local autonomy and some independence while still retaining the suzerainty of a greater sovereign state.

Bhutan was one of the first to recognise India’s independence in 1947 and both nations fostered close relations, their importance augmented by the annexation of Tibet in 1950 by the People’s Republic of China and its border disputes with both Bhutan and India, which saw close ties with Nepal and Bhutan to be central to its “Himalayan frontier” security policy.

India shares a 605 kilometres (376 miles) border with Bhutan and is its largest trading partner, accounting for 98 percent of its exports and 90 percent of its imports.

Initiation of Indo-Bhutanese relations

The signing of the Treaty of Punakha in 1910 with British India and the Chinese invasion of Tibet (1910-12), along with subsequent claims made on Bhutan resulted in the tide turning events in Indo-Bhutan relationship.

This treaty of Punakha, signed in between the Druk Gyalpo (King of Bhutan) and the Political officer of Sikkim C. A. Bell on 8th of January 1910, served to expel any claims that China might have tried to make, yet it was mute on the status of Bhutan, and the legality of its relationship with the British India.

For the Bhutanese, this was a source of uncertainty over its relations with India at the time when British rule was nearing an end.

After India’s independence in 1947, a standstill agreement was signed with each of the external states, for e.g. Sikkim, Nepal and Tibet which defined the relationship with these kingdoms in explicit terms and ensured the continuance of existing relations until new agreements were made but this was not the case with Bhutan.

Its status as a country with respect to India became clear following Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru’s invitation to participate in the Asian Relations Conference in 1947.

Formal bilateral relations between Bhutan and India were established in January 1968 with the appointment of a special officer of the Government of India to Bhutan. The India House (Embassy of India in Bhutan) was inaugurated on May 14, 1968 and Resident Representatives were exchanged in 1971.

Ambassadorial level relations began with the upgrading of residents to embassies in 1978. Bhutan gradually began to diversify its relations with the international community, thereby projecting its status as an independent and sovereign nation. With India sponsoring Bhutan’s application for UN membership in 1971, the leaders of the two countries demonstrated that  Article 2 of the Indo-Bhutan Treaty was not a restricting factor in the exercise of Bhutan’s foreign policy.

 

The Treaty of 1949 had ten Articles. The very first Article tries to perpetuate Indo-Bhutanese friendship for all time to come by stating, “There shall be perpetual peace and friendship between the Government of India and the Government of Bhutan.” However, the most important provision in the treaty is its Article 2, according to which, “The Government of India undertakes to exercise no interference in the internal administration of Bhutan.

On its part, the Government of Bhutan agrees to be guided by the advice of the Government of India in regard to its external relations.” The point that had provoked some amount of criticism or controversy pertains to the second part of this Article since it tries to qualify Bhutan’s external relations. The treaty also established a free trade regime between India and Bhutan. Further, the citizens of both countries residing in each other’s territory will be treated on par with own citizens. The treaty also had provisions for extradition of Indian citizens in Bhutan and of Bhutanese citizens in India when required, and the procedure for the same has been spelt out. The mechanism for settling disputes arising out of differences in interpretation or application of the treaty is also mentioned. It is also stated that the treaty shall continue in perpetuity unless terminated or modified by mutual consent.

The Treaty of 1949

The basis for bilateral relations between India and Bhutan is formed by the Indo-Bhutan Treaty of 1949. On August 8, 1949 Bhutan and India signed the Treaty of Friendship, calling for peace between the two nations and non-interference in each other’s internal affairs. However, Bhutan agreed to let India “guide” its foreign policy and decided that both nations would consult each other closely on foreign and defence affairs. The treaty also established free trade and extradition protocols.

The Treaty of 2007

The treaty of 1949 between India and Bhutan was updated in 2007. The most significant change was in Article 2. The new Article 2 is worded as follows:

“In keeping with the abiding ties of close friendship and cooperation between Bhutan and India, the Government of the Kingdom of Bhutan and the Government of the Republic of India shall cooperate closely with each other on issues relating to their national interests. Neither Government shall allow the use of its territory for activities harmful to the national security and interest of the other.”The updated India-Bhutan Friendship Treaty not only reflects the contemporary nature of the relationship but also lays the foundation for their future development in the 21st century. Amongst others, the Treaty provides for perpetual peace and friendship, free trade and commerce, and equal justice to each other’s citizens.

 

Economy: A broad overview

A great shift in Bhutanese economy is that it is on the verge of opening up. Recently, during the question hour session of the National Assembly, which was held on February 18, 2014, the issue of “ease of doing business”in Bhutan was raised. Since 2010, preparations have been underway in Bhutan to expand and liberalize investment policies. For instance the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy and the Economic Development Policy were released; where by achieving self-reliance was identified as the key goal. In 2012, rules and regulations related to FDI were passed, which established the key criteria for doing business in Bhutan.

While the roles of key committees and respective power of the department were established, coordination between different departments, infrastructure development, would be the key to facilitate and invite investment.

In early 2013, the Economist described Bhutan as fifth fastest growing economy, with a GDP growth rate of 8.5 percent. However there is an over-reliance of the economy on the hydro sector. Diversification of the economy to generate jobs which can absorb the youth of Bhutan has emerged as a single most area of concern.

Economic Cooperation between Bhutan and India

Mutually beneficial economic linkages between India and Bhutan have been an important element in the bilateral relationship. India continues to be the largest trade and development partner of Bhutan. Planned development efforts in Bhutan began in the early 1960s. The First Five Year Plan (FYP) of Bhutan was launched in 1961. Since then, India has been extending financial assistance to Bhutan’s FYPs. The 10th FYP ended in June 2013. India’s overall assistance to the 10th FYP was Rs. 3625 crores, excluding grants and concessional loans for hydropower projects, various subsidies and excise duty refund.Hydropower is one of the main pillars of bilateral cooperation. Three Hydropower projects developed with Indian assistance and which have already been completed are 1020 MW Tala Hydroelectric Project, 336 MW Chukha Hydroelectric Project, 60 MW Kurichhu Hydroelectric. Ten more projects have been agreed to. Of these three are already under construction – Punatsangchhu-I Hydro Electric Project, Punatsangchhu–II and Mangedechhu HEPs. Negotiations are underway for the remaining seven projects of Kholongchhu, Amochhu,

Wangchu and Bunakha Reservoir, Kuri Gongri, Chamkharchhu and Sankosh.GOI also provided Rs. 300 crores towards the establishment of Dungsum Cement Plant at Nganglam with

a capacity to produce 1 million ton of cement every year. The project is expected to be commissioned shortly.

Standby Credit Facility

GoI extended a standby credit facility of Rs 1000 crores to RGoB to help Bhutan overcome the rupee liquidity crunch. This Credit Facility was provided at a concessional interest rate of 5% per annum. It is valid for 5 years.

Trade with India

India is not only Bhutan’s main development partner but also its leading trade partner. The existing free trade regime between India and Bhutan was last renewed in 2006 for a period of 10 years. The India-Bhutan Trade and Commerce Agreement was first signed in 1972.

The major items of exports from Bhutan to India are electricity (from Tala, Chukha and Kurichhu Hydroelectric Projects), base metals and articles, minerals, vegetable fat and oils, alcoholic beverages, chemicals, cement, timber and wood products, cardamom, fruit products,potatoes, oranges and apples, raw silk, plastic and rubber products.

Major exports from India to Bhutan are petroleum products, mineral products, base metals and articles, machinery, automobiles & spares, vegetable,nuts, spices, processed food and animal products, chemicals, wood, plastic and rubber.

The Agreement on Trade and Commerce also provides for duty free transit of Bhutanese merchandise for trade with third countries.

Sixteen exit/entry points in India identified in the Protocol for Bhutan’s third country trade are: Jaigaon, Chamurchi, Ulta Pani, Hathisar (Gelephu), Darranga, Kolkata, Haldia, Dhubri, Raxaul, Panitanki, Changrabandh, Phulbari, Dawki, New Delhi, Chennai and Mumbai. Of these, Kolkata, Haldia, Mumbai and Chennai are the designated seaports, Dhubri is the riverine route, New Delhi, Chennai,Mumbai and Kolkata are the air routes and Raxaul is the rail route. The others are the designated road routes.

 

Domestic Politics and India

Understanding Bhutan’s key foreign policy developments will be incomplete without taking into account its domestic developments. The 2013 elections were indeed an insightful eye-opener for understanding Bhutan’s democratization process.

A not much talked about factor in the 2013 elections in Bhutan is the role of the King. Given the debate during the 2013 elections in Bhutan, and India’s role in shaping the outcome, one cannot miss the role of the monarchy.

So far it was being said that India had withdrawn the subsidy on cooking gas on the eve of the second round of polling to teach Mr. Thinley a lesson for holding talks with China without taking New Delhi into confidence.

According to sources, there was no deliberate effort to damage Mr. Thinley’s electoral prospects and he remains a formidable political figure with whom India would have to do business in future. As the controversy peaked in Bhutan, the government did think of proposing an interim solution but stayed its hand as this would have complicated the issue.

The first round of elections was contested by four parties when the subsidy controversy was nowhere on the horizon. Mr. Thinley’s DPT won 44.52 per cent of the votes. The second round took place after India suspended the subsidy but its vote share only fell by a few decimal points, according to flash results. This means the DPT’s vote share remained unaffected though it had been suggested that India suspension of the subsidy would hurt the party badly.

DPT’s challenger, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) won only 33 per cent of the votes in the first round. But in the second round, its vote share shot up because of the higher index of opposition unity. After trailing the DPT by 12 percentage points in the first round, the PDP was astute enough to co-opt six candidates from the two parties eliminated after the first round of voting. This aspect has been “carefully kept out of the commentary” on the Bhutan elections, the sources noted.

The DPT’s unchanged vote share means that despite getting just 15 of the 47 seats, the party and Mr. Thinley will continue to exert considerable influence in Bhutan politics. India would hardly have tried to marginalise such a figure, the sources added.

However, Bhutan is the top most priority for India which is overlooked by the foreign secretary of India himself and attributing the withdrawal of subsidies to a “goof up” does not sound convincing. The domestic debates took place before the elections highlight the friction between the monarchy and the DPT (Druk Phuensum Tshogpa).

The DPT convention, which took place in Thimpu highlighted a few critical factors. One of the issues that came to the fore was allegations held against the Palace Secretariat and the Army, accusing them of a non-ethical role in Bhutan’s politics. Since, the army is headed by the King himself, critical conclusions can be drawn from this. Interesting, while these issues have not been discussed much, there has been less political activity in Thimpu post 2013 elections.

 

India, Bhutan and China

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The China-India-Bhutan triad has become the centre of many conversations. The roots go back to the much talked about Rio +20 summit at Brazil on June 21, 2012, when the then Bhutanese premier met Chinese premier Wen Jiabao, at the sidelines of the summit. The media picked up the conversations of Thinley and Wen.

During the twenty-first boundary talks, it was significant that the talks witnessed a shift from the disputed North-Western area, close to Siliguri corridor to central parts of Bhutan, which is the Jakarlung and Pasamlung valley. This shift and development could be significant, as it raises question on whether some understanding has been reached in the North-Western areas. These facts as they appeared in the media, forces one to ask two simple questions:-

 

Have Bhutan-China border negotiations already reached some political compromise, or is it that Bhutan is now surrendering slowly to Chinese claiming tactics on its North-Western border with China?

As of today, Bhutan does not have formal diplomatic relations with China. Responding to questions about the possibility of China opening a consulate in Thimphu on the sidelines of the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Bhutan, Prime Minister Tobgay responded that the resolution of border dispute is a pre-condition to the establishment of formal diplomatic relations and without that, the question of opening a consulate did not arise. This puts any further speculation on this front to rest and provides India more time in building on its exclusive sphere of influence in the country.

Given the contours of India-Bhutan-China border discourse, there are clues here, that there is a pattern in making. How the new government handles these sensitive issues is therefore a question of some reckoning.

 

The Recent Landmark visit by Indian Prime Minister

Given the background of troubled relationship with majority of its neighbours, in an unprecedented move, Narendra Modi invited all the heads of the SAARC member countries to his swearing-in ceremony at Rashtrapati Bhavan, with nearly all attending. The invitation for all SAARC heads of state to attend his swearing-in was about re-establishing India’s commitment to positive ties with its neighbors and projecting an image of leadership in India’s backyard. One could interpret the move as homage to the Gujral Doctrine.

With this situation in hand, Bhutan was chosen as the first foreign destination after the swearing in event. The visit sought to build business ties, including a hydro-electric deal, other than the process of weaning away Bhutan from the recent overtures made by the Chinese foreign office.

Besides being the friendliest neighbour, Bhutan is of immense strategic importance to India. In the past insurgent groups from Northeast India had taken sanctuary along Bhutan’s treacherous border with the Indian state of Assam and there are reports about Chinese army’s activities in north and northwest Bhutan recently.

For Bhutan, this visit was important to ensure continuity and to be sure of India’s adherence to earlier agreements in the face of a change of guard in New Delhi. The visit was also an opportunity to understand the foreign policy priorities of the new Government.

There were also concerns within the Himalayan kingdom that a ban on the export of certain food items, in order to rein in the inflationary pressures in India, would impact the landlocked country adversely. On the whole, analysts and former Indian diplomats insisted that this is an important relationship where cooperation on a number of areas is of mutual benefit.

 

HIGHLIGHT of the Joint Statement

• The two sides exchanged views and held discussions on bilateral relations and economic cooperation in regional and multilateral forums.
• Government of India (GoI) reassured Bhutan of its continued commitment to capacity building, especially in the education and IT sectors in Bhutan.
• The GoI satisfaction on the progress made in the hydropower sector and reiterated its commitment to achieving the 10,000MW target.
• GoI exempted Bhutan from any ban or quantitative restrictions on export of milk powder, wheat, edible oil, pulses and non-basmati rice.
• An announcement was made by the GoI regarding doubling of the Nehru-Wangchuck scholarship of Rs 20 million per year. India will also provide grant assistance for establishment of the digital section.

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Importance of Myanmar to India

To tackle insurgency in North-East:

•  Myanmar is central to Northeast India’s security as “a large number of cross-border ethnic groups and insurgents from Northeast India have military bases in Myanmar.
•  Last year, Indian troops reportedly crossed into Myanmar territory to target a National Socialist Council of Nagalim (Khaplang) military camp.
• Myanmar has reiterated its resolve not to allow its territory to be used against India.

 

Act-East policy

• Myanmar’s importance lies in its geo-strategic location at the tri-junction of east, south-east and south Asia.
• Myanmar is strategically important to India as it is the only ASEAN country that shares a border with India.
• In geopolitical terms, New Delhi saw Myanmar as a buffer state with China.
• Myanmar is a crucial link to Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor.

 

Energy security

• Myanmar is on India’s energy security radar on account of its “abundant oil and natural gas” reserves.
• Oil and gas companies ONGC Videsh and GAIL are aggressively scouting for more exploratory blocks in Myanmar.
• A peaceful Northeast has great potential to develop economically with its rich biodiversity, hydropower and precious mineral resources, once it is properly integrated to the Southeast Asian economy.
• Myanmar is an important partner in strengthening our energy security. Recognizing this, an MOU on Co-operation in the Petroleum Sector between MOP&NG and Ministry of Energy of Myanmar was signed during President’s visit to Myanmar in March 2006.
• Of all the heavy investments in the Myanmar, India has mostly invested in the field of oil and gas sector.

 

Trade and investment opportunities

• The Myanmar economy is moving away from a centrally-planned superstructure to a market-led Framework.
• Myanmar — like the other CLMV countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam) — represents a rapidly growing economy with rising consumption, strategic location and access, rich natural resources (oil, gas, teak, copper and gemstones), biodiversity and an industrious workforce with low wages. And it offers significant opportunities for trade in goods and services, investment and project exports.
• Bilateral trade rose from US$ 328 million in 1997-98 to US$ 2.052 billion in 2015-16. Myanmar is the
• Second largest supplier of beans and pulses to India.
• India is presently the ninth largest investor with an approved investment of US$ 730.649 million by 22 Indian companies. Most of India’s investments have been in the oil and gas sector.
•  India’s engineering sector is eyeing the Myanmar market to create a bigger presence for engineering exports.

Economic development of North-East

India is focusing on connectivity to integrate north-east region with Myanmar and also with ASEAN. Myanmar also offers us an alternative access route to the Northeast.

Regional cooperation

• ASEAN: Myanmar is only ASEAN country which shares a land border with India.
•  BIMSTEC: Myanmar became a member of BIMSTEC in December 1997. Myanmar is a signatory to the BIMSTEC Free Trade Agreement.
•  Mekong Ganga Cooperation: Myanmar is a member of the Mekong Ganga Cooperation(MGC) since its inception in November 2000.
• SAARC: Myanmar was given the status of observer in SAARC in August 2008.

Historical Background

• At the time of its independence in 1948, Myanmar had not joined the Commonwealth due to too much bitterness towards British. Immediately afterwards, Burma came under the grip of communists {Red Flag, White Flag, Thirty Comrades, Revolutionary Burma Army etc. were some of the groups}. In 1962, the Military of Burma overthrew the democratic regime. Since then, Burma has been under direct or indirect Military rule until recently when democracy has returned to the country. During initial days of military rule, there was bitterness in India-Myanmar relations.
• Burma not only became more and more isolated from world but also from its own neighbours except China. The Burmese rulers ordered expulsion of Indian community from there because India supported the pro-democracy movement. Its leader General Ne Win not only took anti-India, anti-Soviet stand, but also withdrew from the Non-alignment Movement in 1979. Between 1962 and 1974, the supreme body in Burma was a Revolutionary Council headed by the general, and almost all aspects of society (business, media, production) were nationalized or brought under government control under the Burmese Way to Socialist which combined Soviet-style nationalization and central planning with the governmental implementation of superstitious beliefs. A new constitution of the Socialist Republic of the Union of Burma was adopted in 1974, until 1988, the country was ruled as a one-party system, with the General and other military officers resigning and ruling through the Burma Socialist Programme Party (BSPP). During this period, Burma became one of the world’s most impoverished countries.
• In 1987, India’s Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi visited Burma to seek ways to normalize relations. However, the relations worsened after the military junta’s bloody repression of pro-democracy agitations in 1988, which led to an influx of Burmese refugees into India. However, since 1993 the governments of the Indian Prime Ministers P.V. Narasimha Rao and Atal Bihari Vajpayee changed course and began cultivating ties with Myanmar, as part of Look East Policy, aimed to increase India’s participation and influence in Southeast Asia and to counteract the growing influence of the People’s Republic of China. At the same time, India continued to sympathize with prodemocracy groups and awarded the Jawaharlal Nehru Award for international Understanding to Aung San Suu Kyi in 1993, by which time she had already become persona non grata to the Myanmar government.

 

FLAGSHIP PROJECTS

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What it is?

• The Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project is a project that will connect the seaport of Kolkata with Sittwe seaport in Myanmar by sea; it will then link Sittwe seaport to Lashio in Myanmar via Kaladan river boat route and then from Lashio on to Mizoram in India by road transport.

 

Benefits for India

• Current route from North East to Kolkata port via chicken neck faces heavy traffic; cargo via this route takes many days to reach a port.
• This project will reduce distance from Kolkata to Mizoram by approximately 1000 km and cut travelling time to 3-4 days for transport of goods
• Apart from development of North-East region, this route is necessary in case of any conflict with China as the present route, i.e., chicken neck could be blocked by China in conflict situation.
• The access to the sea that the project provides its Northeastern states could boost their economies.
• It would strengthen India’s trade and transport links with Southeast Asia.
• It not only serves the economic, commercial and strategic interest of India but also contributes to the Development of Myanmar and its economic integration with India.
• It will be instrumental for “act-east policy”.

 

India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway

• India’s renewed commitment to complete the 3,200-km India-Asean trilateral highway that extends from Moreh in India to Mae Sot in Thailand via Mandalay, Myanmar.

 

DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION IN MYANMAR

Myanmar has sworn in Htin Kyaw as the country’s first civilian President in more than 50 years.

• Mr. Htin Kyaw’s government would be its most democratic administration since 1962 when the military seized power.
• Ms. Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won 77 per cent of the elected seats in Parliament. She cannot lead the government because of a constitutional provision that bars her since her sons are British and not Myanmar citizens.

 

Background

• The National League for Democracy( NLD) won Myanmar’s last free and fair election in 1990 in a landslide, but the result was ignored by the then ruling military. The NLD boycotted a 2010 poll held under military rule.
• The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which is dominated by military and civil servants, will be the NLD’s biggest opponent.
• Ms. Suu Kyi’s own presidential aspirations are curtailed by a clause in the constitution that bars individuals with children holding foreign citizenship from becoming head of state.

 

Political reforms in Myanmar

A process of reform has been under way in Myanmar since November 2010, when military rule was replaced by a new military-backed civilian government.

• Release of Aung San Suu kyi from house arrest.
• The release of political prisoners.
• Free and fair by-poll elections in 2012 that saw Aung San Suu Kyi enter Parliament.
• The lifting of censorship on media houses.

 

Military holds on Parliament

• As per 2008 constitution, 25 per cent of the seats in the Upper and Lower houses of Hluttaw (House of Representatives) will be nominated by the military.
• The all-important Defence and Home portfolios remain with the Tatmadaw (The Myanmar Armed Forces),regardless of who comes to power.

 

Challenges for new government

Economic development:

• Myanmar is one of the poorest nations in Asia. In the years of isolation under the junta, economic growth stagnated, trapping millions in acute poverty.

From military:

•  One-quarter of seats in both Houses of Parliament are reserved for the military. This prevents anyconstitutional amendments without the military’s approval.
• The military also has direct control of three key Ministries: defence, home affairs and border affairs.

Ethnic conflict and issue of soverignty:

 

• Myanmar’s biggest challenge in the coming years will be to control, consolidate and protect its borders and its sovereignty. Moving forward on a comprehensive peace agreement with the ethnic nations and containing insurgencies will be its primary goal.
• Myanmar has been the site of serious conflicts between Buddhist and Muslim communities, particularly in Rakhine State.

 

Cooperation between India and Myanmar in the regional/Sub-regional Context

ASEAN: Myanmar became a member of ASEAN in July 1997. As the only ASEAN country which shares a land border with India, Myanmar is a bridge between India and ASEAN. A few proposals for cooperation have been implemented and some are under discussions with Myanmar within the framework of ASEAN’s IAI programme.

BIMSTEC: Myanmar became a member of BIMSTEC in December 1997. Myanmar is a signatory to the BIMSTEC Free Trade Agreement. Myanmar is the lead country for the energy sector. Myanmar trades mostly with Thailand and India in the BIMSTEC region. Myanmar’s major exports to India are agricultural products like beans, pulses and maize and forest products such as teak and hardwoods. Its imports from India include chemical products, pharmaceuticals, electrical appliances and transport equipment. The 13th BIMSTEC Ministerial Meeting was held in Myanmar in January 2011.

Mekong Ganga Cooperation: Myanmar is a member of the Mekong Ganga Cooperation (MGC) since its inception in November 2000. MGC is an initiative by six countries – India and five ASEAN countries namely, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam – for cooperation in the fields of tourism, education, culture, transport and communication. The chairmanship of MGC is assumed by member countries in alphabetical order.

SAARC: Myanmar was given the status of observer in SAARC in August 2008.

 

Development of strategic ties

• India’s move to forge close relations with Burma are motivated by a desire to counter China’s growing influence as a regional leader and enhance its own influence and standing. Concerns and tensions increased in India over China’s extensive military involvement in developing ports, naval and intelligence facilities and industries, specifically the upgrading of a naval base in Sittwe, a major seaport located close to the eastern Indian city of Kolkata. India’s engagement of the Burmese military junta has helped ease the regime’s international isolation and lessen Burma’s reliance on China. Both nations sought to cooperate to counteract drug trafficking and insurgent groups operating in the border areas. India and Myanmar are leading members of BIMSTEC and the Mekong-Ganga Cooperation, along with Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Thailand, helping India develop its influence and ties amongst Southeast Asian nations.
• India was hesitant in reacting to the 2007 Burmese anti-government protests that had drawn overwhelming international condemnation. India also declared that it had no intention of interfering in Burma’s internal affairs and that the Burmese people would have to achieve democracy by themselves as it respects the sovereignty of Myanmar. This low-key response has been widely criticised both within India and abroad as weakening India’s credentials as a leading democratic nation. Indo-Burma relations went into pleasant phase over Burmese steps towards democracy.
• As of 2013, India has provided loan to Myanmar for its development, about US$500 million.
• India and Myanmar are set to cooperate in military and help modernize Myanmar’s military.

Rohingya issue

• The plight of the Rohingyas from Myanmar and Bangladesh is being described as Asia’s biggest mass exodus. The Rohingyas are minority Muslim community in the predominantly Buddhist Myanmar and they reside in Rakhine province of that country. After the major Buddhist-Rohingya riots in 2012 a large number of Rohingyas fled to the neighboring Bangladesh. Thousands who remained back became internally displaced and their properties were displaced and were chased out of their homes. They now live in crowded camps within Myanmar. Periodically they try and escape the inhuman conditions they are forced to live in and are facilitated by people smugglers. As in the past they have sought greener pastures in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. None of the countries want them now. Rohingyas are collectively dubbed as ‘boat people’ by the media.
• The Rohingya people are considered ‘stateless entities’, as the Myanmar government has been refusing to recognise them as one of the ethnic groups of the country. There is no legal protection for them from the government of Myanmar. To escape the dire situation in Myanmar, the Rohingya try to illegally enter Southeast Asian states, begging for humanitarian support from potential host countries. The modern Burmese state is built upon the concept of Buddhist Burmese supremacy; this concept has been used by the military as a pretext for their rule. The Rohingya are not allowed to register their marriage and they are not allowed to have education.
• Their condition is even when they travel to other countries. When the refugees arrive in Thailand and Malaysia, they are still at the mercy of traffickers, who detain them in jungle prisons and demand ransoms from friends and family. If they can pay, they are released, but if they cannot they are often killed. Thailand police discovered 24 bodies in the mountains of southern Thailand in May, believed to be the victims of smugglers. Most refugees that arrive in Thailand or Malaysia look to stay and get work and then send money home to their families. The refugees work in the fishing or farming industries and often don’t get paid or face dire working conditions. Those that have made out of Myanmar by boat face an uncertain future.
• Malaysia is not a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention and does not possess a legislative and administrative framework to address refugee matters. Therefore, the inclusion of more Rohingya refugees would have further strained Malaysia’s domestic capacity to cope with illegal immigrants in the country.
• Malaysia and Indonesia have agreed to provide temporary shelter for the refugees in their respective countries for up to a year, after which the international community should assist to repatriate and resettle the refugee to a third country. The Rohingya refugee crisis also poses domestic challenges for Malaysia. The growing presence of Rohingya refugees could worsen the social, economic and political problems associated with illegal immigrants in Malaysia.
• Atrocities committed against Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine state is being seen as a crime against humanity. Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand had recently sparked growing international outrage by driving off boats overloaded with starving Rohingya as well as Bangladeshis. The UN’s refugee agency, the UNHCR, believes at least 2,000 migrants may be stranded on boats off the Myanmar-Bangladesh coasts, held in horrific conditions for weeks by traffickers who are demanding that passengers pay to be released. The UN says the Rohingya are one of the most persecuted groups in the world. Neither Bangladesh nor Myanmar recognises them as citizens. In Buddhist-majority Myanmar, even the name Rohingya is taboo. Myanmar officials refer to the group as “Bengalis” and insist they are illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, even though most have lived in the country for generations.
• Whatever be the solution, it really has to be a humanitarian approach, making sure lives are not lost and looking at temporary solutions in each of the affected countries – Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. The United States has asked the Myanmar to give full rights to the minority to help end the exodus. The temporary solution is a settlement arrangement for the asylum seekers and refugees who are coming to these countries. There has to be a mechanism and strategy at the regional level that allows countries of the ASEAn region to have an oversight on coordinated management. The approach might be slightly different in every country, but it has to be an overarching strategy. ASEAN has to put pressure on Burma in order to make changes to the lives of people in Rakhine state. This is a long-term strategy.

 

Indo-Myanmar Border issue:

The border with Myanmar also remains operationally active and several insurgent groups have secured sanctuaries for themselves in Myanmar despite the cooperation extended by the Myanmar’s army.

The cross-border movement of Nagas and Mizos for training, purchase of arms and shelter when pursued by Indian security forces, combined with the difficult terrain obtaining in the area, make this border extremely challenging to manage.

This border is manned by the Assam Rifles since 2002 with some help from Indian Army.

India shares 1,643 km. long border with Myanmar. Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram are the FOUR States, which share the border with Myanmar. India and Myanmar permit a Free Movement Regime up to 16 km across the border. This makes the International Border extremely porous.

The border runs along hilly and inhospitable terrain which grossly lacks basic infrastructure and provides

Cover to the activities of various Indian Insurgent Groups (IIGs). The unfenced Indo-Myanmar border with free movement regime is thus being exploited by various Indian Insurgent Groups (IIGs).

Assam Rifles has been deployed for counter-insurgency and border guarding role on this border. Out of sanctioned strength of 46 battalions, 31battalions are for counter-insurgency and 15 battalions are for border guarding role. Presently, all 15 border guarding battalions are deployed along Indo-Myanmar

Border on Company Operating Base (COB) approach. The companies are deployed on all routes of ingress/egress and are checking infiltration, smuggling of arms, ammunition, drugs, fake Indian currency notes, etc.

 

Recent dispute: Border Fencing Between BP No.79 and 81 in Moreh

In order to check the problem of increased militant activities in the Indo-Myanmar border area, the Government of India sanctioned an action in early 2013 to fence the area between BP No. 79 to 81 on the Indo-Myanmar Border (approx. 10 km). This initiative has recently led to various protests in Manipur.

First episode in July 2013

The intermittent protests against the construction of a border fence started in July, 2013 by various political parties and the affected people in Manipur. The protesters claim that the 10-km fence between border pillars no. 79 and 81, which is being constructed several metres inside the Indian territory because of Myanmar’s objections, would result in Manipur loosing substantial portions of its territory to Myanmar. They demanded that the Central government should first resolve the border dispute with Myanmar and conduct a joint survey of the border before constructing the fence.

On August, 2013: The Myanmarese army reportedly tried to set up a camp by felling trees in Hollenphai village near border pillar no. 76. While the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) denied any intrusion into the Indian Territory by the Myanmarese army, the local people alleged harassments by the ‘intruders’.

The subsequent visits of the state Governor and other high ranking officials to the affected area failed to assuage the feelings of the local people and the protest against the construction of the fence continues even today.

Despite these protests, the Central government has decided to go ahead with the construction of fencing – a decision based on the successful experiment along the India-Pakistan and India-Bangladesh borders, where the fence has been effective in checking infiltration and illegal migration to a large extent.

 

Vulnerable Factors @ Indo-Myanmar border

• First, even though the international boundary between the two countries had been formally delimited and demarcated following the 1967 Boundary agreement, the boundary has not crystallised on the ground.
• This is because like most of the boundaries that India shares with its neighbours, the India-Myanmar boundaries is also an artificial line which is superimposed on the socio-culturallandscape of the borderland.
• Second, the border traverses a region which is infested with numerous insurgencies. These insurgencies have hampered the nation building process in this part of India.

        a.) These insurgencies have delayed the crystallisation of the international border with Myanmar and have  contributed towards sustaining these insurgencies for so long.

• Third, the India-Myanmar border has a unique arrangement in place called the Free Movement Regime. The FMR permits the tribes residing along the border to travel 16-km across the boundary without visa restrictions.

       b.) While the FMR has helped the tribes continue maintain their age old ties, it has also become a cause of concern for the security establishment. The insurgents have been taking advantage of The FMR and have been             crossing over to Myanmar to receive training in arms, establish safe Havens and re-enter India to carry out                   subversive attacks.

  Over the years, the India-Myanmar border has become the main conduit for the trafficking of arms and high quality   heroin from Myanmar. Smuggling of ephedrine and pseudo-ephedrine and trafficking of women and children from     the Northeast to Myanmar and further to Southeast Asia are also rampant along the border.

• Fourth, the policymakers in Delhi have not given adequate attention to the India-Myanmar border and as a result it continues to be poorly managed.

 

1. The Assam Rifles which has been deployed along the border to guard the boundary has also been straddled with responsibility of maintaining internal security. Given the security situation of the region, the force has deployed 31 of its 46 battalions for counter insurgency operations and only 15 battalions for guarding the border.
2. Even these 15 battalions are not placed at the border but they operate from company operated bases which are located far inside the Indian Territory. In short, the Assam Rifles functions more like a counter insurgency force rather than a border guarding force.

Similarly, infrastructural facilities at Moreh and Zokhawatar – the two designated points for normal trade and border trade respectively – is poor. The land customs station lack screening and detection machines, communication devices, banking facilities, warehouses, parking and quarantine facilities.

 

Lack of support from military Junta govt in Myanmar

India’s patchy engagement with the military junta in Myanmar and its initial support to the democratic movement in that country have been largely responsible for Myanmar’s reluctance to cooperate with India.

 

Recommendations:

Given that the vulnerability of the India-Myanmar border is posing a serious challenge to the internal security of the country, the Government of India should pay immediate attention to effectively manage this border.

1. It should first strengthen the security of the border by either giving the Assam Rifles the single mandate of guarding the border or deploying another border guarding force such as the Border Security Force (BSF).
2. It should initiate a revision of the FMR and reduce the permitted distance of unrestricted travel.
3. The construction of the ICP along with other infrastructure should be expedited.
4. Finally, India should endeavour to meaningfully engage with Myanmar and solicit its cooperation in resolving all outstanding issues and better manage their mutual border.

MoUs signed during the recent President of Myanmar visit to India (29th August, 2016)

• MoU on Cooperation in the construction of 69 Bridges including AP Aproach Roads in the Tamu-Kyigone-Kalewa Road Section of the Trilateral Highway in Myanmar
• MoU on Cooperation in the construction/upgradation of the Kalewa-Yagyi Road Section.
• MoU on Cooperation in the Field of Renewable Energy.
• MoU on Cooperation in the field of Traditional Systems of Medicine

Future trends and Conclusion

• It is clearly evident that Myanmar plays an important and pivotal role not only linking India with the ASEAN and South-East Asian countries but also in eradicating insurgent groups in north-eastern parts of the Indian Territory.
• The first is where will be a direct economic development for India second will also help to India to pacify its north-eastern parts of peace and development both with the help of Myanmar.
• Moreover, Myanmar is not only a fresh economic opportunity for India to invest and garner; it is a chance to overcome the decades’ long neglect of Northeast India by linking its infrastructure and commerce with Myanmar. India could reignite the Bay of Bengal with a surge of commercial activity reviving its eastern ports.
• Also if both nations are determined then the illicit drug trafficking and inflow of narcotics/heroin from Myanmar into the alcohol prohibited states of Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram can be extirpated completely.
• Myanmar which has recently gained democracy also seek forward to new developmental, political and economic reforms and India by helping can be on the better side of mutual benefits.
• An increasing consciousness in India about Myanmar’s importance should motivate academia, think tanks, NGOs, artists, media and strategic community to re-discover and strengthen links with their counterparts in Myanmar.

 

Backgrounder

1852 – Britain annexes lower Burma, including Rangoon, following the second Anglo-Burmese war.

1885-86 – Britain captures Mandalay after a brief battle; Burma becomes a province of British India.

1937 – Britain separates Burma from India and makes it a crown colony.

 

Japanese occupation

1942 – Japan invades and occupies Burma with some help from the Japanese-trained Burma Independence Army, which later transforms itself into the Anti-Fascist People’s Freedom League (AFPFL) and resists Japanese rule.

1945 – Britain liberates Burma from Japanese occupation with help from the AFPFL, led by Aung San.

1947 – Aung San and six members of his interim government assassinated by political opponents led by U Saw, a nationalist rival of Aung San’s. U Nu, foreign minister in Ba Maw’s government, which ruled Burma during the Japanese occupation, asked to head the AFPFL and the government.

 

Independence

1948 – Burma becomes independent with U Nu as prime minister.

Mid-1950s – U Nu, together with Indian Prime Minister Nehru, Indonesian President Sukarno, Yugoslav President Tito and Egyptian President Nasser co-found the Movement of Non-Aligned States.

1958-60 – Caretaker government, led by army Chief of Staff General Ne Win, formed following a split in the ruling AFPFL party.

1960 – U Nu’s party faction wins decisive victory in elections, but his promotion of Buddhism as the state religion and his tolerance of separatism angers the military.

 

One-party, military-led state:

1962 – U Nu’s faction ousted in military coup led by Gen Ne Win, who abolishes the federal system and inaugurates “the Burmese Way to Socialism” – nationalising the economy, forming a single-party state with the Socialist Programme Party as the sole political party, and banning independent newspapers.

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1974 – New constitution comes into effect, transferring power from the armed forces to a People’s Assembly headed by Ne Win and other former military leaders; body of former United Nations secretary-general U Thant returned to Burma for burial.

1975 – Opposition National Democratic Front formed by regionally-based minority groups, who mounted guerrilla insurgencies.

1982 – Law designating people of non-indigenous background as “associate citizens” in effect bars such people from public office.

 

Riots and repression:

1987 – Currency devaluation wipes out many people’s savings and triggers anti-government riots.

1988 – Thousands of people are killed in anti-government riots. The State Law and Order Restoration Council (Slorc) is formed.

1989 – Slorc declares martial law, arrests thousands of people, including advocates of democracy and human rights, renames Burma ‘Myanmar’, with the capital, Rangoon, becoming Yangon. NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi, the daughter of Aung San, is put under house arrest.

 

Thwarted elections

 

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1990 – Opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) wins landslide victory in general election, but the result is ignored by the military.

1991 – Aung San Suu Kyi awarded Nobel Peace Prize for her commitment to peaceful change.

1992 – Than Shwe replaces Saw Maung as Slorc chairman, prime minister and defence minister. Several political prisoners freed in bid to improve Myanmar’s international image.

1995 – Aung San Suu Kyi is released from house arrest after six years.

1996 – Aung San Suu Kyi attends first NLD congress since her release; Slorc arrests more than 200 delegates on their way to party congress.

1997 – Burma admitted to Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean); Slorc renamed State Peace and Development Council (SPDC).

 

Release of pro-democracy supporters:

2000 September – Ruling council lifts restrictions on movements of Aung San Suu Kyi and senior NLD members.

2000 October – Aung San Suu Kyi begins secret talks with ruling council.

2001 Ruling council releases some 200 pro-democracy activists. Government says releases reflect progress in talks with opposition NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi who remains under house arrest.

 

Conflicting signals:

2002 May – Pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi released after nearly 20 months of house arrest.

Aung San Suu Kyi taken into “protective custody” after clashes between her supporters and those of government.

2003 November – Five senior NLD leaders released from house arrest after visit of UN human rights envoy.

2004 January – Government and Karen National Union – most significant ethnic group fighting government – agree to end hostilities.

2004 May – Constitutional convention begins, despite boycott by National League for Democracy (NLD) whose leader Aung San Suu Kyi remains under house arrest. The convention adjourns in July.

New capital:

2005 November – Myanmar says its seat of government is moving to a new site near the central town of Pyinmana; it is later given the name Nay Pyi Taw.

2007 January – China and Russia veto a draft US resolution at the UN Security Council urging Myanmar to stop persecuting minority and opposition groups.

2008 January- A series of bomb blasts hits the country. State media blame “insurgent destructionists”, including ethnic Karen rebels.

2008 April – Government publishes proposed new constitution, which allocates a quarter of seats in parliament to the military and bans opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from holding office.

Cyclone:

2008 May – Cyclone Nargis hits the low-lying Irrawaddy delta. Some estimates put the death toll as high as 134,000.

 The regime was accused of blocking aid, refusing initial access to humanitarian workers

Referendum on new constitution proceeds amid humanitarian crisis following cyclone. Government says 92% voted in favour of draft constitution and insists it can cope with cyclone aftermath without foreign help.

Junta renews Aung San Suu Kyi’s house arrest.

2008 November – Dozens of political activists given sentences of up to 65 years in series of secretive trials.

2008 December – Government signs deal with consortium of four foreign firms to pipe natural gas into neighbouring China, despite protests from human rights groups.

2009 January – Thailand expels hundreds of members of Muslim Rohingya minority who appeared off its coast. Myanmar denies the minority’s existence. Several hundred Rohingyas are subsequently rescued from boats off the coast of Indonesia.

2009 April – The National League for Democracy (NLD) main opposition group offers to take part in planned elections if the government frees all political prisoners, changes the constitution and admits international observers.

2009 May – The EU extends the 2006 sanctions for another year, but adds that they can be reviewed in the event of moves towards democracy.

UN and aid agencies say hundreds of thousands in the Irrawaddy Delta still need assistance a year after Cyclone Nargis. The UN says Myanmar now allows it to bring in all the staff it needs.

Aung San Suu Kyi trial:

2009 August – Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi is convicted of breaching conditions of her house arrest, following visit by an uninvited US national in May. The initial sentence of three years’ imprisonment is commuted to 18 months’ house arrest.

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2009 September – US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announces plans for engagement with military rulers.

2009 October – Aung San Suu Kyi begins talks with Myanmar’s military leaders and is allowed to meet Western diplomats.

2010 March – Government announces that long-awaited election laws have been passed, with provisions for an electoral commission hand-picked by the junta.

NLD votes to boycott polls. A splinter party – National Democratic Front (NDF) – later gains legal status and plans to compete in polls.

2010 October – Government changes country’s flag, national anthem and official name.

2010 November – Main military-backed party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), claims resounding victory in first election for 20 years. Opposition groups allege widespread fraud and the election is widely condemned as a sham. The junta says the election marks the transition from military rule to a civilian democracy.

Junta retires to wings:

2011 March – Thein Sein is sworn in as president of a new, nominally civilian government.

2011 August – President Thein Sein meets Aung San Suu Kyi in Nay Pyi Taw.

2011 September – President Thein Sein suspends construction of controversial Chinese-funded Myitsone hydroelectric dam, in move seen as showing greater openness to public opinion.

2011 October – Some political prisoners are freed as part of a general amnesty. New labour laws allowing unions are passed.

2011 November- Pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi says she will stand for election to parliament, as her party rejoins the political process.

2011 December – US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visits, meets Aung San Suu Kyi and holds talks with President Thein Sein. US offers to improve relations if democratic reforms continue.

Re-publication censorship was scrapped in 2012, but state control of media remains strong

President Thein Sein signs law allowing peaceful demonstrations for the first time; NLD re-registers as a political party in advance of by-elections for parliament due to be held early in 2012.

Burmese authorities agree truce deal with rebels of Shan ethnic group and orders military to stop operations against ethnic Kachin rebels.

2012 January – Government signs ceasefire with rebels of Karen ethnic group.

Partly-free elections held:

2012 April – NLD candidates sweep the board in parliamentary by-elections, with Aung San Suu Kyi elected. The European Union suspends all non-military sanctions against Burma for a year.

2012 May – Manmohan Singh pays first official visit by an Indian prime minister since 1987.

2012 August – President Thein Sein sets up commission to investigate violence between Rakhine Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims in the west, in which dozens have died.

Myanmar abolishes pre-publication media censorship.

President Thein Sein tells the BBC he would accept opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi as president if she were elected.

 

Foreign ties:

2012 November – Visiting European Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso offers Myanmar more than $100m in development aid.

Around 90 people are killed in a renewed bout of communal violence between Rakhine Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims.

US President Barack Obama visits to offer “the hand of friendship” in return for more reforms. He urges reconciliation with the Rohingya minority.

2013 January-February – The army surrounds Laiza, the biggest town controlled by Kachin rebels. The government and rebels agree to disengage and start a political dialogue after Chinese-sponsored talks.

2013 March – Rioting between Muslims and Buddhists in Meiktila, south of Mandalay, leaves at least 10 people dead.

2013 April – Four private daily newspapers appear for the first time in almost 50 years as the state monopoly ends.

 

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2013 May – President Thein Sein visits Washington. President Obama praises Myanmar’s political and economic progress, but criticises violence against Rohingya Muslims.

Six Muslims are jailed over the Meiktila clashes in March. No Buddhists are convicted.

2014 April – At least 22 people are killed in fighting between government troops and ethnic Kachin rebels in the north.

Government announces release of 3,000 prisoners. Burma watchers say most are petty criminals, but include ex-military intelligence officers imprisoned along with former Prime Minister Khin Nyunt, who was freed in 2012.

2015 February – Flare-up in fighting with Kokang separatists in Shan State near the border with China leaves nearly 50 soldiers dead. Government puts Kokang region under temporary martial law.

Government withdraws temporary voting rights from Muslim Rohingyas ahead of proposed constitutional referendum, following street protests by Buddhists.

 

Peace hopes:

2015 March – A draft ceasefire agreement is signed between the government and 16 rebel groups.

2015 May – Hundreds of Muslim Rohingyas migrants leave by sea in flimsy boats, along with migrants from Bangladesh. UN criticizes failure of south-east Asian states to rescue them.

2015 July-August – Floods affect much of low-lying parts of country, killing 100 people and displacing a million others.

2015 November – Opposition National League for Democracy – led by Aung San Suu Kyi – wins enough seats in parliamentary elections to form a government.

2016 March – Htin Kyaw sworn in as president, ushering in a new era as Aung San Suu Kyi’s democracy movement takes power after 50 years of military domination.

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Backgrounder

1838-42 – British forces invade, install King Shah Shujah. He is assassinated in 1842. British and Indian troops are massacred during retreat from Kabul.

1878-80 – Second Anglo-Afghan War. A treaty gives Britain control of Afghan foreign affairs.

1919 – Emir Amanullah Khan declares independence from British influence.

1926-29 – Amanullah tries to introduce social reforms, which however stir civil unrest. He flees.

1933 – Zahir Shah becomes king and Afghanistan remains a monarchy for next four decades.

1953 – General Mohammed Daud becomes prime minister. Turns to Soviet Union for economic and military assistance. Introduces social reforms, such as abolition of purdah (practice of secluding women from public view).

1963 – Mohammed Daud forced to resign as prime minister.

1964 – Constitutional monarchy introduced – but leads to political polarisation and power struggles. King Zahir Shah, who ruled for 40 years until he was ousted in 1973

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1973 – Mohammed Daud seizes power in a coup and declares a republic. Tries to play off USSR against Western powers.

1978 – General Daud is overthrown and killed in a pro-Soviet coup. The People’s Democratic Party comes to power but is paralysed by violent infighting and faces opposition by US-backed mujahideen groups.

Soviet intervention

1979 December – Soviet Army invades and props up communist government.

1980 – Babrak Karmal installed as ruler, backed by Soviet troops. But opposition intensifies with various mujahideen groups fighting Soviet forces. US, Pakistan, China, Iran and Saudi Arabia supply money and arms to the mujahideen.

1985 – Mujahideen come together in Pakistan to form alliance against Soviet forces. Half of Afghan population now estimated to be displaced by war, with many fleeing to neighbouring Iran or Pakistan.

1986 – US begins supplying mujahideen with Stinger missiles, enabling them to shoot down Soviet helicopter gunships. Babrak Karmal replaced by Najibullah as head of Soviet-backed regime.

1988 – Afghanistan, USSR, the US and Pakistan sign peace accords and Soviet Union begins pulling out troops.

 

Red Army quits

1989 – Last Soviet troops leave, but civil war continues as mujahideen push to overthrow Najibullah.

1992 – Najibullah’s government toppled, but a devastating civil war follows.

President Najibullah (centre) headed the Soviet-backed regime

Source

1996 – Taliban seize control of Kabul and introduce hard-line version of Islam, banning women from work, and introducing Islamic punishments, which include stoning to death and amputations.

1997 – Taliban recognised as legitimate rulers by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. They now control about two-thirds of country.

1998 – US launches missile strikes at suspected bases of militant Osama bin Laden, accused of bombing US embassies in Africa.

1999 – UN imposes an air embargo and financial sanctions to force Afghanistan to hand over Osama bin Laden for trial.

2001 September – Ahmad Shah Masood, leader of the main opposition to the Taliban – the Northern Alliance – is assassinated.

US-led invasion:

2001 October – US-led bombing of Afghanistan begins following the September 11 attacks on the United States. Anti-Taliban Northern Alliance forces enter Kabul shortly afterwards.

2001 December – Afghan groups agree deal in Bonn, Germany for interim government.

Hamid Karzai is sworn in as head of an interim power-sharing government.

Source

2002 January – Deployment of first contingent of foreign peacekeepers – the Nato-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) – marking the start of a protracted fight against the Taliban.

2002 April – Former king Zahir Shah returns, but makes no claim to the throne and dies in 2007.

2002 June – Loya Jirga, or grand council, elects Hamid Karzai as interim head of state. Karzai picks members of his administration which is to serve until 2004.

2003 August – Nato takes control of security in Kabul, its first-ever operational commitment outside Europe.

Elections

2004 January – Loya Jirga adopts new constitution which provides for strong presidency.

2004 October-November – Presidential elections. Hamid Karzai is declared winner.

2005 September – Afghans vote in first parliamentary elections in more than 30 years.

2005 December – Parliament opens with warlords and strongmen in most of the seats.

The first parliamentary poll in more than 30 years

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2006 October – Nato assumes responsibility for security across the whole of Afghanistan, taking command in the east from a US-led coalition force.

2007 August – Opium production has soared to a record high, the UN reports.

2008 June – President Karzai warns that Afghanistan will send troops into Pakistan to fight militants if Islamabad fails to take action against them.

2008 July – Suicide bomb attack on Indian embassy in Kabul kills more than 50.

2008 September – US President George Bush sends an extra 4,500 US troops to Afghanistan, in a move he described as a “quiet surge”.

2009 January – US Defence Secretary Robert Gates tells Congress that Afghanistan is new US administration’s “greatest test”.

2009 February – Nato countries pledge to increase military and other commitments in Afghanistan after US announces dispatch of 17,000 extra troops.

New US approach

2009 March – US President Barack Obama unveils new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan. An extra 4,000 US personnel will train and bolster the Afghan army and police and there will be support for civilian development.

2009 August – Presidential and provincial elections are marred by widespread Taliban attacks, patchy turnout and claims of serious fraud.

2009 October – Mr Karzai declared winner of August presidential election, after second-placed opponent Abdullah Abdullah pulls out before the second round.

2009 December – US President Obama decides to boost US troop numbers in Afghanistan by 30,000, bringing total to 100,000. He says US will begin withdrawing its forces by 2011.

An Al-Qaeda double agent kills seven CIA agents in a suicide attack on a US base in Khost.

2010 February – Nato-led forces launch major offensive, Operation Moshtarak, in bid to secure government control of southern Helmand province.

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2010 July – Whistleblowing website Wikileaks publishes thousands of classified US military documents relating to Afghanistan. 

General David Petraeus takes command of US, ISAF forces.

2010 August – Dutch troops quit.

Karzai says private security firms – accused of operating with impunity – must cease operations. He subsequently waters down the decree.

2010 September – Parliamentary polls marred by Taliban violence, widespread fraud and a long delay in announcing results.

2010 November – Nato – at summit in Lisbon – agrees plan to hand control of security to Afghan forces by end of 2014.

2011 January – President Karzai makes first official state visit to Russia by an Afghan leader since the end of the Soviet invasion in 1989.

2011 February – Number of civilians killed since the 2001 invasion hit record levels in 2010, Afghanistan Rights Monitor reports.

2011 April – Burning of Koran by a US pastor prompts country-wide protests in which foreign UN workers and several Afghans are killed.

Some 500 mostly Taliban prisoners break out of prison in Kandahar.

2011 July – President’s half-brother and Kandahar governor Ahmad Wali Karzai is killed in Taliban campaign against prominent figures.

2011 September – Ex-president Burhanuddin Rabbani – a go-between in talks with the Taliban – is assassinated.

2011 October – As relations with Pakistan worsen after a series of attacks, Afghanistan and India sign a strategic partnership to expand co-operation in security and development

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Military pact

2011 November – President Karzai wins the endorsement of tribal elders to negotiate a 10-year military partnership with the US at a loya jirga traditional assembly. The proposed pact will see US troops remain after 2014, when foreign troops are due to leave the country.

2011 December – At least 58 people are killed in twin attacks at a Shia shrine in Kabul and a Shia mosque in Mazar-i-Sharif.

Pakistan and the Taleban boycott the scheduled Bonn Conference on Afghanistan. Pakistan refuses to attend after a Nato air strike killed Pakistani soldiers on the Afghan border.

2012 January – Taliban agree to open office in Dubai as a move towards peace talks with the US and the Afghan government.

2012 February – At least 30 people are killed in protests about the burning of copies of the Koran at the US Bagram airbase. US officials believed Taliban prisoners were using the books to pass messages, and that they were extremist texts not Korans. Two soldiers are also killed in reprisal attacks.

2012 March – US Army Sgt Robert Bales is accused of killing 16 civilians in an armed rampage in the Panjwai district of Kandahar.

2012 April – Taliban announce “spring offensive” with audacious attack on the diplomatic quarter of Kabul. The government blamed the Haqqani Network. Security forces kill 38 militants.

Nato withdrawal plan

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2012 May – Nato summit endorses the plan to withdraw foreign combat troops by the end of 2014.

New French President Francois Hollande says France will withdraw its combat mission by the end of 2012 – a year earlier than planned.

Arsala Rahmani of the High Peace Council is shot dead in Kabul. A former Taliban minister, he was crucial in reaching out to rebel commanders. The Taliban deny responsibility.

2012 July – Tokyo donor conference pledges $16bn in civilian aid to Afghanistan up to 2016, with US, Japan, Germany and UK supplying bulk of funds. Afghanistan agrees to new conditions to counter corruption.

2012 August – The US military discipline six soldiers for accidentally burning copies of the Koran and other religious texts in Afghanistan. They will not face criminal prosecution. Three US Marines are also disciplined for a video in which the bodies of dead Taliban fighters were urinated on.

2012 September – US hands over Bagram high-security jail to the Afghan government, although it retains control over some foreign prisoners until March 2013.

The US also suspends training new police recruits in order to carry out checks on possible ties to Taliban following series of attacks on foreign troops by apparent police and Afghan soldiers.

2013 February – President Karzai and Pakistan’s Asif Ali Zardari agree to work for an Afghan peace deal within six months after talks hosted by Britain’s Prime Minister David Cameron. They back the opening of an Afghan office in Doha and urge the Taliban to do the same for talks to take place.

2013 March – Two former Kabul Bank chiefs, Sherkhan Farnood and Khalilullah Ferozi, are jailed for the multi-million dollar fraud that almost led to its collapse and that of the entire Afghan banking system in 2010.

2013 June – Afghan army takes command of all military and security operations from Nato forces.

President Karzai suspends security talks with the US after Washington announces it plans to hold direct talks with the Taliban. Afghanistan insists on conducting the talks with the Taliban in Qatar itself.

2014 January – Taliban suicide squad hits a restaurant in Kabul’s diplomatic quarter, the worst attack on foreign civilians since 2001. The 13 foreign victims include IMF country head.

2014 April – The presidential election produces an inconclusive result and goes on to a second round between Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani.

2014 June – Second round of presidential election is held, with more than 50 reported killed in various incidents during the vote.

2014 July – Election officials begin recount of all votes cast in June’s presidential run-off, as part of a US-mediated deal to end dispute between candidates over widespread claims of fraud.

Election deal

2014 September – The two rivals for the Afghan presidency, Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, sign a power-sharing agreement, following a two-month audit of disputed election results. Ashraf Ghani is sworn in as president.

2014 October – The US and Britain end their combat operations in Afghanistan.

Opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan reaches an all-time high, according to a US report

2014 December – NATO formally ends its 13-year combat mission in Afghanistan, handing over to Afghan forces. Despite the official end to Isaf’s combat role, violence persists across much of the country, with 2014 said to be the bloodiest year in Afghanistan since 2001.

2015 January – NATO-led follow-on mission “Resolute Support” gets underway, with some 12,000 personnel to provide further training and support for Afghan security forces.

2015 March – US President Barack Obama announces that his country will delay its troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, following a request from President Ashraf Ghani.

The lynching of a woman wrongly accused of burning a Koran in Kabul provokes widespread revulsion and criticism of hard-line clerics. Police face accusations of doing too little to save her. The incident leads to widespread protests against the treatment of women. Four men are later convicted of murder.

Taliban offensives

2015 May – Taliban representatives and Afghan officials hold informal peace talks in Qatar. Both sides agree to continue the talks at a later date, though the Taliban insist they will not stop fighting until all foreign troops leave the country.

2015 September – Taliban briefly capture major northern city of Kunduz in their most significant advance since being forced from power in 2001.

2015 October – Powerful earthquake kills more than 80 people in northeast of country.

2015 October – US President Barack Obama announces that 9,800 US troops will remain in Afghanistan until the end of 2016, backtracking on an earlier pledge to pull all but 1,000 troops from the country.

2015 December – Taliban make bid to capture Sangin, a town and district in Helmand Province. US warplanes deploy in support of Afghan security forces’ attempt to repel insurgents.

2015 December – NATO extends its “Resolute Support” follow-on mission by 12 months to the end of 2016.

2016 July – US President Barack Obama says 8,400 US troops will remain in Afghanistan into 2017 in light of the “precarious security situation”. NATO also agrees to maintain troop numbers and reiterates a funding pledge for local security forces until 2020.

2016 September – The Afghan government signs a peace agreement with the militant group Hezb-e-Islami which grants immunity to the group’s leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.

2016 October – Islamic State (IS) group emerges as growing security threat. Apart from what appears to be its first major attack on Kabul in July, IS claims several other deadly assaults.

The Indian-Afghan relationship has drawn closer in the post-September 11, 2001 period. Building on a long history of bilateral relations, the Indian government reengaged with the Afghan government after the 2001 defeat of the Taliban, initially largely on a humanitarian basis. The importance of Afghanistan to India has increased significantly for political and geo-strategic reasons, as well as for access to natural resources.