Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Mains level: Extended Neighbourhood; West Asia; Crises in the Middle East;
Why in the News?
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria significantly challenges Iran’s regional influence, disrupting Tehran’s efforts to sustain its “Shiite crescent” strategy across the Middle East.
| The “Shiite crescent” strategy refers to Iran’s geopolitical ambition to establish a contiguous sphere of influence among Shia-majority regions, extending from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon, thereby enhancing its regional power.
|
What are the Bilateral Ties between Iran and Syria?
- Strategic Partnership: Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Syria has been Iran’s key ally, facilitating Iranian influence throughout the Levant. This partnership allowed Iran to support Hezbollah in Lebanon and maintain a foothold against Sunni Arab states.
- Corridor for Influence: Syria served as a vital corridor for Iranian resources and military support to its proxies, reinforcing Tehran’s “Shiite crescent” strategy aimed at linking Iran with its allies across the region.
- Historical Context: The relationship strengthened under Bashar al-Assad, despite being challenged by regional Sunni powers. The Assad regime’s reliance on Iranian support became more pronounced during the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011.
What are the challenges for Tehran?
- Loss of Influence: The fall of Assad represents a major setback for Iran, as it loses a critical ally needed to sustain its influence in the region. This diminishes Tehran’s ability to project power through its network of proxies and disrupts its strategic depth in the Levant.
- Operational Setbacks: Iran’s military presence in Syria had already been compromised by Israeli operations targeting Hezbollah leaders and other Iranian-affiliated groups. The loss of Assad exacerbates these challenges, leaving Tehran to reassess its military and diplomatic strategies.
- Increased Regional Competition: With Assad gone, regional powers like Turkey and Gulf states are likely to vie for influence in Syria, further complicating Iran’s position and diminishing its regional leverage.
What are the Geopolitical implications for the countries in the region?
- Power Vacuum: The collapse of Assad creates a power vacuum in which regional players such as Turkey, Iran, and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states will compete to fill, recalibrating their strategies to safeguard national interests.
- Increased Tensions: Sunni Arab states may heighten efforts to counter Iranian influence, potentially leading to escalated sectarian tensions and a resurgence of militant groups like ISIS seeking to exploit the instability.
- Israel’s Strategic Posture: Israel is expected to adopt a more aggressive stance against Iranian-affiliated groups in Syria and Lebanon, aiming to prevent any reconstitution of Iranian influence along its borders.
- Western Involvement: The U.S. and European nations may intensify their involvement through diplomatic channels and interventions to curb Iranian expansion while preventing militant organizations from re-emerging in the region.
What are the steps taken by Indian government?
- India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC): Launched during India’s G20 presidency, this corridor aims to enhance connectivity and trade between India, the Middle East, and Europe. It seeks to integrate various countries, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and European nations, facilitating faster movement of goods and improving maritime security.
- Joint Action Plan with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): India and the GCC have adopted a Joint Action Plan for 2024-2028, which encompasses cooperation in various sectors such as health, trade, energy, agriculture, and transportation.
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Way forward:
- Strengthen Diplomatic Ties: Engage with key regional actors like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Turkey to promote stability in Syria and counterbalance Iranian influence while safeguarding India’s energy and trade interests in the Middle East.
- Counter-Terrorism Collaboration: Enhance intelligence-sharing and counter-terrorism cooperation with allies to mitigate the risks of militant groups like ISIS exploiting the instability in Syria.
- Support Reconstruction Efforts: Participate in Syria’s post-conflict reconstruction through investments in infrastructure, showcasing India’s soft power and gaining strategic goodwill in the region.
Mains PYQ:
Q In what ways would the ongoing US-Iran Nuclear Pact Controversy affect the national interest of India? How should India respond to its situation? (UPSC IAS/2018)
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: UNSC Resolution 1701
Why in the News?
Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire after 13 months of rising conflict, though it is linked to the UN Resolution 1701, which has not been fully implemented.
About UNSC Resolution 1701:
|
Details |
| What is it? |
- Passed on August 11, 2006, following the 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah.
- Aimed to end hostilities, ensure the security of Israel and Lebanon, and establish long-term peace along the Israel-Lebanon border.
- Also designed to prevent Hezbollah from using southern Lebanon as a base for military operations against Israel.
|
| Key Provisions and Objectives |
- Cessation of Hostilities: Aimed at halting the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel.
- Disarmament of Armed Groups: Called for the disarmament of Hezbollah and all other armed groups in Lebanon, leaving only the Lebanese state with weapons authority.
- Israeli Withdrawal: Mandated Israel’s full withdrawal from southern Lebanon, which had been occupied since the 1982 Lebanon War.
- Lebanese Forces Deployment: Directed the Lebanese government to deploy its army in southern Lebanon to ensure peace and prevent Hezbollah’s rearmament.
- UNIFIL Deployment: Increased deployment of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) to monitor the border and ensure compliance.
- Arms Embargo: Imposed restrictions to prevent the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah.
- Implementation of Taif Accords (1989): The resolution emphasizes the full implementation of this accord, which is critical for the disarmament of non-state actors in Lebanon and the consolidation of Lebanese state authority across the country.
|
| Implementation and Violations |
- Partial Implementation: While Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon, Hezbollah retained its weapons and continued its terror operations.
- Lebanese Army Deployment: The Lebanese army was deployed in southern Lebanon but struggled to assert full control, as Hezbollah’s influence remained strong in the region.
- UNIFIL’s Role: UNIFIL, while active, faced challenges in fully enforcing the provisions of the resolution due to Hezbollah’s continued presence and the complexities of local politics.
- Violations: Despite the resolution’s provisions, violations have included Hezbollah’s stockpiling of weapons and cross-border skirmishes, as well as the failure to fully disarm all armed groups, undermining the resolution’s goals.
- Taif Accords Violation: This has hindered the establishment of complete state sovereignty in Lebanon.
|
PYQ:
[2018] “India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss. |
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: International Criminal Court (ICC) and its jurisdiction
Why in the News?
The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrant for Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu accusing them of war crimes and crimes against humanity.
About the International Criminal Court (ICC)
|
Details |
| What is it? |
• First international permanent court to prosecute individuals for serious international crimes.
• Established under the Rome Statute (1998, w.e.f 2002).
• 124 countries are States Parties to the Rome Statute.• Headquarters: The Hague, Netherlands. |
| Structural Mandate |
• Official languages: English, French, Arabic, Chinese, Russian, and Spanish.
• Members: 124 States Parties to the Rome Statute; Palestine (2015) and Malaysia (2019) became the latest members.
• Notable non-members: India, Israel, the US, Russia, Ukraine, and China.
• Funding: By contributions from member states and voluntary contributions.
• Enforcement: Relies on state cooperation for enforcement, as it does not have its own police force. |
| Composition |
• Judges: Consists of 18 judges elected by the Assembly of States Parties for a term of 9 years.
• Prosecutor: Leads the Office of the Prosecutor and investigates crimes.
• Additional Components: Includes the Trust Fund for Victims (2004), Detention Centre, and the Assembly of States Parties. |
| Jurisdiction |
Prosecutes 4 main crimes:
- War Crimes: Violations of the laws of war.
- Crimes against Humanity: Acts like murder, enslavement, and torture.
- Genocide: Intent to destroy a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group.
- Crimes of Aggression: Unjustified military action against another state.
• ICC can only prosecute crimes committed after the Rome Statute’s entry into force (July 1, 2002). |
PYQ:
[2018] “Rule of Law Index” is released by which of the following?
- Amnesty International
- International Court of Justice
- The Office of UN Commissioner for Human Rights
- World Justice Project
|
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Mains level: Importance of Middle Eastern countries;
Why in the News?
Saudi Arabia recently hosted a summit of Arab and Islamic leaders, urging an immediate halt to Israel’s military actions in Gaza and Lebanon while addressing the broader Palestine issue.
What were the key outcomes of the Riyadh summit on the Gaza conflict?
- Condemnation of Israeli Actions: The leaders from Arab and Islamic countries condemned the Israeli military’s actions in Gaza, describing them as “shocking and horrific crimes,” including accusations of genocide and ethnic cleansing.
- Call for Investigation: They demanded the establishment of an “independent, credible” international committee to investigate these alleged crimes committed by Israel.
- Support for Palestinian Statehood: The summit urged for measures to end the Israeli occupation and called for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state based on the borders prior to June 4, 1967, with East Jerusalem (Al-Quds) as its capital, aligning with the two-state solution and the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002.
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How does the summit reflect changing dynamics in regional politics?
- Shift from Normalization: The summit reflects a significant shift in regional politics where Arab nations, which had previously moved towards normalising relations with Israel (as seen in the Abraham Accords), are now re-emphasizing the importance of addressing the Palestinian issue as a prerequisite for peace.
- Collective Arab Stance: The gathering showcased a united front among Arab leaders in response to Israel’s actions, indicating a collective anger and a strategic pivot back towards supporting Palestinian rights rather than sidelining them for diplomatic ties with Israel.
- Impact on Saudi-Israel Relations: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s strong condemnation of Israel’s actions signals a deterioration in potential normalization talks with Israel, as any future agreements are now explicitly linked to resolving the Palestinian question.
What is the possibility of the Arab World Joining the war?
- Unlikelihood of Military Action: Despite heightened tensions and strong rhetoric, it is highly unlikely that any Arab nation will engage militarily against Israel. Historical precedents show that while Arab states have condemned Israeli actions, they have refrained from direct military confrontation since 1973.
- Focus on Diplomatic Solutions: The current sentiment among Arab nations leans towards seeking diplomatic resolutions rather than military involvement, especially given their previous moves towards normalizing relations with Israel.
- Strategic Realignment: The recent developments suggest a subtle realignment in West Asia’s strategic landscape, where Arab states may prioritize internal stability and regional cooperation over direct military engagement, even as they express solidarity with Palestine.
What can India do to resolve the Gaza conflict?
- Mediation and Dialogue Facilitation: India can leverage its strong relationships with both Arab countries and Israel to act as a neutral mediator, facilitating dialogue and promoting peaceful negotiations between the conflicting parties.
- Support for International Initiatives: India can advocate for a renewed focus on the two-state solution within international forums like the UN, aligning with global efforts to establish a sustainable, independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.
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Way forward:
- Strengthen Diplomatic Efforts: Arab nations should focus on reinforcing diplomatic pressure on Israel and the international community to address the Palestinian issue, promoting dialogue and supporting peaceful resolutions.
- Support Palestinian Unity: Arab countries should work towards fostering unity within Palestinian leadership to present a coherent political front and advance their cause for statehood in international forums.
Mains PYQ:
Q How will the I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE and USA) grouping transform India’s position in global politics? (UPSC IAS/2022)
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)
Why in the News?
Israel’s Knesset has banned the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) from operating within its borders, citing alleged ties between UNRWA staff and Hamas.
What is Israel’s Knesset?
- The Knesset is Israel’s unicameral parliament, established in 1949.
- It consists of 120 members, elected every four years through proportional representation, and is responsible for legislation, government oversight, and electing the president.
|
About UNRWA:
|
Details |
| Full Name |
United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) |
| Establishment |
Established by the UN General Assembly in 1949. |
| Primary Purpose |
To provide relief, healthcare, and education for Palestinian refugees displaced after the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. |
| Headquarters |
Originally in Beirut, moved to Vienna in 1978, and relocated to Gaza in 1996. |
| Mandate Renewal |
The mandate has been renewed repeatedly, currently extended until June 30, 2026. |
| Fields of Operation |
Operates in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem. |
| Beneficiaries |
Supports over five million Palestinian refugees and their descendants displaced in 1948 and 1967. |
| Services Provided |
• Education
• Healthcare
• Social services
• Infrastructure improvement
• Microfinance
• Emergency assistance |
| Funding Sources |
Primarily funded by voluntary contributions from UN member states, with limited funding from the UN Regular Budget for staffing costs. |
| Leadership |
Led by a Commissioner-General, appointed by the UN Secretary-General with General Assembly approval. |
| Controversies |
• Disputed mandate regarding descendants of original refugees.
• Allegations of staff affiliations with militant groups. |
| Global Response |
Condemned by the international community regarding bans and criticisms, with calls to support UNRWA’s humanitarian role. |
Its role and significance:
- Humanitarian Aid: UNRWA provides essential support, including food, shelter, healthcare, and education to over five million Palestinian refugees.
- Education and Empowerment: Operates schools for 500,000 children and supports microfinance programs to promote economic self-sufficiency.
- Crisis Response: Plays a vital role in emergency situations and advocates for the rights of Palestinian refugees on an international level.
PYQ:
[2015] Amnesty International is:
(a) an agency of the United Nations to help refugees of civil wars
(b) a global Human Rights Movement
(c) a non-governmental voluntary organization to help very poor people
(d) an inter-governmental agency to cater to medical emergencies in war-ravaged regions |
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Jordan River and its Valley
Why in the News?
Extremist groups held drone strikes on Israeli territory in the Jordan Valley (which forms Jordan’s border with Israel and the West Bank).
About Jordan Valley:
|
Details |
| Geography |
• Part of the Great Rift Valley, extending from the Sea of Galilee to the Dead Sea.
• Forms a natural border between Jordan, Israel, and the West Bank.
• Low-lying, with parts below sea level, especially near the Dead Sea. |
| Climate |
• Semi-arid to arid, with hot summers and mild winters.
• Limited rainfall, necessitating irrigation for agriculture. |
| Significance |
• An essential agricultural region, growing citrus, dates, and vegetables.
• The Jordan River is a vital water source for agriculture and drinking water.
• Ecological corridor for migratory birds. |
| History |
• Rich in biblical and historical significance, including Jesus’ baptism in the Jordan River.
• Archaeological sites from ancient civilizations like the Canaanites and Romans. |
| Geopolitical Aspects |
• Critical in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with strategic importance for security and border control.
• Vital for Palestinian economic development and a future state.
• Shared water resources create tensions between Israel, Jordan, and Syria. |
| Economic Activities |
• Agriculture is the mainstay of the economy.
• Tourism is also significant due to religious and historical sites. |
| Environmental Concerns |
• Water scarcity and the shrinking Dead Sea due to river diversion are major issues.
• Pollution and overuse of the Jordan River affect water quality and ecosystem health. |
PYQ:
[2015] Which one of the following countries of South-West Asia does not open out to the Mediterranean Sea?
(a) Syria
(b) Jordan
(c) Lebanon
(d) Israel |
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: THAAD Defense System
Why in the News?
The US has announced that it will send its advanced THAAD (Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense) missile system to Israel, along with US troops to operate it.
What is THAAD?
- THAAD is an advanced missile defense system developed by Lockheed Martin Corporation in the 1990s.
- It is designed to intercept and destroy short-range (up to 1,000 km), medium-range (1,000–3,000 km), and intermediate-range (3,000–5,000 km) ballistic missile threats during their terminal phase of flight.
-
- Uses “hit-to-kill” technology to destroy missiles.
- Can defend a larger area than the older Patriot Air and Missile Defense System.
- Provides a rapidly deployable capability both inside and outside the atmosphere.
India’s AD-1 missile interceptor under the Phase 2 Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system, is similar to the THAAD missile system used by the US.
- AD-1 and AD-2 interceptor missiles are developed to intercept ballistic missiles, including ICBMs, with ranges over 2,000 km.
- Swordfish LRTR, derived from Israel’s Green Pine radar, has an upgraded detection range of 1,500 km for enhanced missile tracking.
- The system intercepts both exo-atmospherically and endo-atmospherically, creating a comprehensive missile defence shield.
- It can manage multiple missile threats simultaneously, ensuring defence against complex attack scenarios.
- A floating test range is being developed for missile trials over the sea, enabling tests at higher altitudes and ranges up to 1,500 km.
- INS Dhruv, equipped with advanced radars, monitors missile tests and supports surveillance during defense operations.
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Significance of Sending THAAD to Israel
The decision to send THAAD to Israel is significant for several reasons:
- It is part of broader US military adjustments in the region to support Israel’s defense and protect Americans from attacks by Iran and Iranian-aligned militias.
- The deployment signals increased US involvement in the conflict.
| PYQ:
[2018] What is “Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)”, sometimes seen in the news?
(a) An Israeli radar system
(b) India’s indigenous anti-missile programme
(c) An American anti-missile system
(d) A defence collaboration between Japan and South Korea |
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Nile River System
Why in the News?
A regional partnership of 10 countries announced that an agreement on the equitable use of Nile River water resources has come into effect, despite Egypt’s opposition.
Why discuss this?
- The legal status of the “cooperative framework” was confirmed by the African Union after South Sudan joined the treaty.
- The treaty is backed by the Nile Basin Initiative.
- Countries Involved:
- Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania have ratified the agreement.
- Egypt and Sudan have refused to sign.
- Congo abstained, while Kenya has yet to submit its ratification documents.
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About Nile River:
|
Details |
| Length |
Approximately 6,650 km (4,130 miles), making it the longest river in the world. |
| Tributaries |
White Nile (originating from Lake Victoria in Uganda) and Blue Nile (originating from Lake Tana in Ethiopia). |
| Countries Traversed |
11 countries: Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, DR Congo, Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Egypt. |
| Source |
- White Nile from Lake Victoria,
- Blue Nile from Lake Tana.
|
| Mouth |
Mediterranean Sea, forming the Nile Delta in Egypt. |
| Major Cities |
Includes Cairo, Khartoum, and Alexandria. |
| Key Dams |
- Aswan High Dam (Egypt), controls flooding, generates hydroelectric power, and forms Lake Nasser.
- Built in 1970 across the Nile in Aswan, Egypt; helps in irrigation, flood control, and hydroelectric power generation but also disrupts silt flow.
|
| Economic Importance |
Provides over 90% of water for Egypt and Sudan; vital for agriculture, fishing, industry, and energy production. |
| Disputes |
Between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan over water rights, particularly due to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). |
| Historical Treaties |
- 1929 and 1959 Nile Water Agreements allocated water mostly to Egypt and Sudan; upstream countries seek revision.
- Nile Basin Initiative (NBI): Established in 1999, it is a partnership among Nile Basin countries aimed at promoting cooperation, development, and sustainable management of the Nile’s resources.
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PYQ:
[2020] Consider the following pairs:
|
River |
Flows into |
| 1. |
Mekong |
Andaman Sea |
| 2. |
Thames |
Irish Sea |
| 3. |
Volga |
Caspian Sea |
| 4. |
Zambezi |
Indian Ocean |
Which of the pairs given above is/are correctly matched?
(a) 1 and 2 only
(b) 3 only
(c) 3 and 4 only
(d) 1, 2 and 4 only |
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Mains level: Regional issues in Africa;
Why in the News?
On September 26, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) initiated a significant offensive against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Khartoum and Bahri. As a result, the conflict, which had been relatively calm for several months, has reignited with increased intensity.
What is the extent of the war?
- Duration and Scope: The civil war has lasted for over 18 months, initially erupting from a power struggle between the two military factions—the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). What began in Khartoum has spread to various regions, including Omdurman, Bahri, Port Sudan, El Fasher, and areas in Darfur and Kordofan.
- Casualties and Displacement: The UN reports over 20,000 fatalities since the conflict began. Additionally, the International Organization for Migration estimates 10.89 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) as of October 1.
- Worsening Humanitarian Crisis: Access to aid and healthcare has become severely restricted, particularly in Darfur.
- The UN has declared famine in specific camps like Zamzam, affecting nearly 500,000 IDPs. Currently, 25.6 million people—more than half of Sudan’s population—face critical food insecurity.
How have ethnic tensions and rivalries played a part in the war?
- Ethnic Conflict: The war has evolved beyond a military rivalry, intensifying along ethnic lines. The RSF, composed of predominantly Arab militias, has been involved in targeting non-Arab communities, such as the Masalit, particularly in the Darfur region.
- Militia Involvement: Various regional ethnic militias have taken sides in the conflict, complicating the dynamics further. The SAF has allied with the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement, while the RSF has garnered support from Arab militias.
- Historical reason: Ethnic tensions are rooted in historical grievances, exacerbating violence and leading to retaliatory attacks between communities, which have fueled the conflict.
What are the implications for the region?
- Mass Displacement: Over two million refugees have fled to neighboring countries, including Chad, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. This has strained resources in host countries and raised concerns about a potential migrant crisis in Europe.
- Ethnic Clashes in Neighboring Regions: The instability in Sudan has triggered ethnic violence along the borders with South Sudan and Ethiopia, particularly in contested areas like Abyei and El Fashaga.
- Economic Impact: The ongoing conflict jeopardizes essential infrastructures, such as oil pipelines from South Sudan to the Red Sea, threatening regional economic stability.
- Cross-Border Tensions: A lack of effective governance in Sudan has led to increased ethnic tensions and clashes in border regions, which could have wider implications for regional security and stability.
Way forward:
- Facilitate Peace Talks: India can leverage its diplomatic relations with the conflicting factions (SAF and RSF) to encourage dialogue and support peace initiatives through multilateral platforms like the African Union and the UN.
- Strengthen Regional Alliances: India can collaborate with neighbouring countries (Chad, South Sudan, Ethiopia) to manage the refugee crisis and promote stability through joint security initiatives.
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Philadelphi Corridor
Why in the News?
The Philadelphi Corridor is a key issue in ceasefire talks as Israel’s war on Gaza continues, with Palestinian deaths nearing 41,000.
About Philadelphi Corridor
- The Philadelphi Corridor is a strategically significant strip of land between the Gaza-Egypt border.
- It spans about 14 kilometers in length and 100 meters in width.
- This area plays a critical role in regional security and the geopolitics surrounding Gaza, Israel, and Egypt.
- It runs from the Mediterranean Sea in the north to the Kerem Shalom crossing with Israel in the south.
- It includes the Rafah crossing, the main border point between Gaza and Egypt.
- It acts as a buffer zone between Egypt and Gaza, with control over it influencing security and smuggling activities in the region.
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Significance for Israel
- The Corridor became significant after the 1979 Camp David peace treaty, allowing Israel to maintain a limited military presence.
- In 2005, Israel withdrew from Gaza, including the corridor, leaving Egypt and the Palestinian Authority responsible for security.
- In 2007, Hamas took control of Gaza, increasing smuggling activities through tunnels in the corridor.
- Israel regained control of the corridor in May 2023 during a ground offensive in Gaza.
- The corridor has since been central to Israel’s strategy for controlling arms smuggling and preventing Hamas from using it as a supply route.
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Mains level: India-Israel relation;
Why in the News?
A Supreme Court Bench, led by the Chief Justice of India, recently dismissed a petition by former civil servants and activists seeking suspension of military export licenses to Israel during the ongoing conflict.
India’s Ongoing Exports to Israel
- India exports military equipment and arms to Israel, which includes both public sector and private sector companies supplying defense-related materials.
- During the ongoing conflict in Gaza, the Indian government has continued to issue licenses for the export of arms and military equipment to Israel, despite international concerns about potential violations of humanitarian law.
- India has developed a strong defense relationship with Israel, marked by regular arms deals, military cooperation, and technology transfers.
How does India’s arms exports to Israel violate the law?
- Complicity in Genocide: By exporting arms to Israel, India risks being complicit in violations of international humanitarian law, including potential war crimes and genocide committed by Israel, as indicated by various international bodies.
- As a signatory to the Genocide Convention, India is obligated (Article 1) to prevent genocide and avoid providing aid or assistance to any state engaged in such acts.
- Indian Constitution: Article 21 of the Indian Constitution guarantees the right to life and personal liberty to citizens as well as to foreigners.
- International Court of Justice (ICJ) Precedents: ICJ rulings have repeatedly warned states against exporting arms to conflict zones where such weapons might be used to violate international law.
Genocide Convention (1948)
- Definition and Purpose: The Genocide Convention, adopted by the United Nations in 1948, aims to prevent and punish acts of genocide, which include killings and other acts intended to destroy, in whole or part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group.
- Obligations of Signatory States:
- States party to the Convention are obligated to prevent and punish acts of genocide, both within their territories and in international contexts.
- Article III of the Convention makes states’ complicity in genocide a punishable offense, meaning states must refrain from providing material or logistical support to nations engaged in genocide.
- India’s Commitment: India ratified the Genocide Convention, thereby binding itself to these obligations. Under this Convention, India is required to ensure that it is not complicit in such crimes through its actions, including military exports.
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International Pressure and ICJ Opinions
- ICJ Provisional Measures (2023): In January 2023, the ICJ ordered provisional measures against Israel for violations of the Genocide Convention in the Gaza Strip, including an immediate halt to killings and destruction.
- Global Response: Many countries like Canada, Spain, and the UK have suspended arms exports to Israel, in compliance with their obligations under international law to prevent genocide and war crimes.
- India’s Non-Compliance: Despite these international legal obligations and warnings, India continues to provide military aid to Israel, raising questions about its commitment to international humanitarian law.
Conclusion: India’s continued arms exports to Israel, despite international legal concerns, highlight the delicate balance between strategic defence relations and adherence to international humanitarian obligations under the Genocide and Geneva Conventions.
Mains PYQ:
Q India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss. (UPSC IAS/2018)
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Location of Golan Heights
Mains level: Issues between Israel and Palestine
Why in the news?
Israel has announced that it would retaliate strongly against Hezbollah, accusing the group of being responsible for a rocket attack that killed 12 children and teenagers at a football field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
Background of Golan Heights:
- The Golan Heights was captured by Israel during the Six-Day War in 1967 from Syria and has since been a point of contention between the two nations. In 1981, Israel effectively annexed the territory, a move not recognized by the international community.
- Strategic Importance: The Golan Heights offers a commanding view of northern Israel and southern Syria, making it a critical military and strategic area. Its elevation allows for surveillance and control over surrounding regions, including the ability to monitor movements from Syria.
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Causes of the conflict:
- Support for Palestinians: Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel are framed as support for Palestinians facing Israeli bombardment in Gaza, particularly following the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023. Hezbollah, as a member of the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance, has aligned itself with Hamas and other militant groups in the region.
- Historical Hostilities: The conflict is rooted in a long history of hostility between Israel and Hezbollah, which was founded in 1982 to combat Israeli forces in Lebanon. Hezbollah views Israel as an illegitimate state and seeks its removal, which fuels ongoing tensions and military engagements.
- Escalating Military Capabilities: Hezbollah has significantly enhanced its military capabilities since the 2006 war, possessing a large arsenal of rockets and advanced weaponry. This includes the ability to strike deep into Israeli territory, increasing the stakes for both sides in any conflict.
Implications of the Conflict
- Humanitarian Impact: The ongoing hostilities have resulted in significant civilian casualties and displacement on both sides of the border. Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have killed Hezbollah fighters and civilians, while Hezbollah’s attacks have resulted in Israeli casualties. The humanitarian toll is exacerbated by the broader context of the Gaza war.
- Regional Stability: The conflict poses a risk of broader regional destabilization, potentially drawing in other actors and escalating into a full-scale war.
- Political Ramifications: The conflict has significant political implications for both Israel and Lebanon. In Israel, the displacement of civilians has become a pressing political issue, while Hezbollah’s actions may influence its standing within Lebanon and the broader Shiite community.
How escalation can be avoided on the Global Stage?
- Diplomatic Engagement: The United States and other international actors must continue to engage in diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalating tensions. This includes facilitating dialogue between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as addressing the underlying issues related to the Gaza conflict. A ceasefire in Gaza could help reduce hostilities in Lebanon.
- Regional Agreements: Need to make efforts to establish regional agreements that address territorial disputes and security concerns that can mitigate the risk of conflict.
- Monitoring and Mediation: International bodies, including the United Nations, should increase their monitoring of the situation and mediate discussions between the conflicting parties. This can help prevent misunderstandings and miscalculations that could lead to escalated military responses.
Role of India in this situation: (Way forward)
- Engaging with Arab Nations: India should also maintain and strengthen its relationships with Arab nations, including Lebanon, to ensure a balanced approach. This engagement can help India navigate the complexities of the situation and position itself as a neutral party that seeks to promote peace and stability in the region.
- Facilitating Dialogue: By promoting dialogue between the conflicting parties, India can help de-escalate tensions and work towards a peaceful resolution.
Mains PYQ:
Q India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss. (2018)
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Bordering countries of Israel
Mains level: Impacts of the War
Why in the News?
Fifty-seven years have elapsed since the Six-Day War ( June 5 to June 10, 1967) fought between Israel and its Arab neighbors.
Causes of the War
- Historical Tensions: Rooted in the establishment of Israel in 1948, which resulted in the displacement and death of thousands of Palestinian Arabs, creating a massive refugee crisis.
- Egypt-Israel Relations: Particularly hostile due to territorial and water disputes, exacerbated by Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser’s aggressive stance against Israel.
- Cold War Influences: Military build-up in Israel and Arab states along Cold War lines, with Israel supported by the US and Arab states by the Soviet Union.
- Provocations: Egypt’s naval blockade of the Straits of Tiran in May 1967, cutting off Israel’s maritime access to the Red Sea and mobilizing forces in the Sinai Peninsula.
Outbreak of the War
- On June 5, 1967, Israel launched a pre-emptive airstrike on Egyptian airfields, swiftly gaining air superiority and neutralising the Egyptian Air Force.
- Israel’s ground forces advanced into the Sinai Peninsula and Gaza Strip, territories occupied by Egypt.
- Jordan and Syria entered the war, attacking Israel from the east and north, but were quickly repelled.
Impacts of the War
- Territorial Gains for Israel: In less than a week, Israel captured the Sinai Peninsula and Gaza from Egypt, the Golan Heights from Syria, and the West Bank and East Jerusalem from Jordan.
- Geopolitical Shift: The defeat was a major blow to Arab nations, establishing Israel’s military and geopolitical dominance in the region.
- Emergence of Palestinian Nationalism: The war spurred the rise of Palestinian nationalism and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) emerged as a significant political entity.
- Continued Conflict: Ongoing tensions and conflicts in the region, including the 1973 Yom Kippur War, are direct results of the 1967 war and subsequent Israeli occupation of key territories.
- Unresolved Refugee Crisis: The plight of Palestinian refugees displaced during and after the war remains unresolved, continuing to fuel regional instability.
Conclusion: The Six-Day War was thus a pivotal event that not only redefined territorial boundaries but also reshaped political dynamics and set the stage for ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.
Mains PYQ:
Q “India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss. (UPSC IAS/2018)
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Arab League; its members
Mains level: NA
Why in the News?
The Arab League called for UN peacekeeping forces in the Palestinian territories during a summit in Bahrain’s Manama. The “Manama Declaration” issued by the league sought UNPKF in the occupied Palestinian territories” until a two-state solution is implemented.
Back2Basics: United Nations Peacekeeping
- UN Peacekeeping is a collective effort by the international community, led by the United Nations, to maintain peace and security in regions affected by conflict.
- UN peacekeepers are often referred to as Blue Berets or Blue Helmets because of their light blue berets or helmets) can include soldiers, police officers, and civilian personnel.
History:
- The concept of UN peacekeeping emerged in the aftermath of World War II, with the establishment of the United Nations in 1945.
- The first UN peacekeeping mission was established in 1948, following the Arab-Israeli War, to monitor the ceasefire between Israel and its Arab neighbours.
- This mission, known as the United Nations Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO), set the precedent for future peacekeeping operations.
- Since then, the scope and complexity of UN peacekeeping have evolved significantly, with operations conducted across the globe in regions affected by conflict, civil war, and humanitarian crises.
Operations:
- UN Peacekeeping is guided by three basic principles:
- Consent of the parties
- Impartiality
- Non-use of force except in self-defence and defence of the mandate
- UN peacekeeping operations are deployed with the consent of the main parties to the conflict. It can be deployed at the request of the parties involved in a conflict or with the authorisation of the UN Security Council.
- The objectives may vary depending on the specific context but often include monitoring ceasefires, disarming combatants, facilitating the delivery of humanitarian aid, promoting human rights, and supporting the establishment of democratic governance structures.
- UN peacekeeping operations operate under the principles of impartiality, consent of the parties, and non-use of force except in self-defence and defence of the mandate.
India’s Role:
- India has been one of the largest contributors to UN peacekeeping operations since their inception.
- India has contributed nearly 195,000 troops, the largest number from any country, and participated in more than 49 missions and 168 supreme sacrifices while serving in UN missions.
|
About Arab League
|
Details |
| Establishment |
Founded on March 22, 1945, in Cairo, Egypt. |
| Founding Members |
Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria. |
| Objective |
Promote economic, cultural, political, and military cooperation among member states. Safeguard independence and sovereignty. |
| Functions |
- Operates on consensus among member states. Decisions are made through consultations and discussions.
- Regular meetings among Arab leaders to address regional issues, formulate policies, and coordinate actions.
- Specialised committees and councils address specific areas of cooperation, such as economic affairs, social affairs, and defence.
|
| Member States |
Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Kuwait, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Somalia, Sudan, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. |
| Observer Nations |
- Non-Arab countries with observer status include Brazil, Eritrea, India, Venezuela, and others.
- No voting rights are accorded to Observer nations.
|
| Important Achievements |
- Proposal of the Arab Peace Initiative in 2002.
- Coordination of military efforts in various conflicts.
- Promotion of economic cooperation through initiatives such as the Arab Free Trade Area.
- Facilitation of cultural and educational exchange programs among member states.
|
| Challenges |
Internal divisions, Differences of opinion over the Palestinian-Israeli conflict etc. |
PYQ:
[2014] Recently, a series of uprisings of people referred to as ‘Arab Spring’ originally started from
(a) Egypt
(b) Lebanon
(c) Syria
(d) Tunisia |
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: IMEC Project, Various ports mentioned
Mains level: NA
Why in the News?
An Indian inter-ministerial delegation visited the UAE to discuss the operational aspects of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), marking a significant step forward since the signing of the agreement.
About IMEC Project
- IMEC is part of the broader Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), which focuses on infrastructure development in economically developing regions.
- The MoU for IMEC was formally endorsed on September 10, 2023, during the 2023 G20 New Delhi summit.
- Signatories to this agreement: India, United States, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, Italy, and the European Union.
- Aim: To integrate Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, enhancing economic cooperation across these regions.
- Objectives:
- Improve transportation efficiency, lower costs, and promote economic cohesion among participating nations.
- Generate employment opportunities and reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions.
- Facilitate trade and connectivity, thereby reshaping regional integration among Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.
Corridor Configuration:
IMEC comprises two primary corridors:
- East Corridor: Linking India to the Arabian Gulf.
- Northern Corridor: Connecting the Gulf region to Europe.
Key ports integral to the project’s success include:
- India: Mundra, Kandla, and Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust (Mumbai).
- Middle East: Fujairah (UAE), Jebel Ali (Dubai, UAE), Abu Dhabi (UAE), Dammam (Saudi Arabia), and Ras Al Khair (Saudi Arabia).
- Israel: Haifa port.
- Europe: Piraeus (Greece), Messina (Italy), and Marseille (France).
Additionally, it encompasses various infrastructure components such as railway networks, ship-to-rail connections, road transport routes, electricity cables, hydrogen pipelines, and high-speed data cables. |
Significance:
- IMEC, upon completion, will establish a dependable and cost-efficient cross-border ship-to-rail transit network, complementing existing maritime and road transport networks.
- The IMEC Project holds significant promise in redefining regional trade dynamics and fostering sustainable economic growth and cooperation among the involved countries.
PYQ:
[2018] The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is viewed as a cardinal subset of China’s larger ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative. Give a brief description of CPEC and enumerate the reasons why India has distanced itself from the same. (150 Words, 10 Marks)
[2016] ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ is sometimes mentioned in the news in the context of the affairs of:
(a) African Union
(b) Brazil
(c) European Union
(d) China |
Back2Basics: Partnership for Global Infrastructure Investment (PGII)
- The PGII was first announced in June 2021 during the G7 (or Group of Seven) summit in the UK.
- The G7 countries include the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the European Union (EU).
- US President Joe Biden had called it the Build Back Better World (B3W) framework. However, it did not register much progress.
- In 2022, during the G7 summit in Germany, the PGII was officially launched as a joint initiative to help fund infrastructure projects in developing countries through public and private investments.
- Objective: To mobilise nearly $600 billion from the G7 by 2027 to invest in critical infrastructure.
- It is essentially in response to the infrastructure projects being undertaken and funded by China under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) at a global level.
|
Present Maritime Routes between India and Europe
| Trade Route |
Route |
Issues |
Advantages |
| Suez Canal Route |
Indian Ocean -> Arabian Sea -> Red Sea -> Suez Canal -> Mediterranean Sea -> Europe |
- High traffic causing congestion.
- Potential for piracy, especially near the Horn of Africa.
|
- Most efficient and shortest maritime route.
- Well-established with advanced port facilities.
|
| Cape of Good Hope Route |
Indian Ocean -> Arabian Sea -> Indian Ocean (southern tip of Africa) -> Atlantic Ocean -> Europe |
- Longer transit time compared to the Suez Canal.
- Higher fuel costs and longer journey duration.
|
- Avoids congestion and security risks of the Suez Canal.
- Suitable for large vessels unable to transit the Suez Canal.
|
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: UN and its membership; Rights and privileges enjoyed by UN Member
Mains level: NA
Why in the news?
India has voted in favour of a UN General Assembly resolution recommending Palestine’s admission as a full member of the United Nations.
Arab push for Palestine’s Membership
- The emergency special session was convened by the Arab Group, with the UAE presenting the resolution in support of Palestine’s full membership.
- The resolution calls for the Security Council to “reconsider” Palestine’s membership favourably, based on its determination that Palestine is qualified for UN membership.
- The resolution received overwhelming support, with 143 votes in favour, including India’s, nine against, and 25 abstentions.
- As an observer state, Palestine currently lacks voting rights in the General Assembly and cannot nominate candidates to UN organs.
India’s Stance on Palestine:
- In 1988, India recognized the State of Palestine.
- In 1996, India opened its Representative Office to the Palestine Authority in Gaza, later relocating it to Ramallah in 2003.
|
About United Nations
|
Details |
| Background |
Resulted from the devastation of World War I and II
Highlighted the need for a more effective international body to maintain peace and prevent future conflicts. |
| Predecessor |
The League of Nations, created in 1919 after World War I, aimed at peacekeeping but failed during World War II. |
| The Atlantic Charter |
Issued in August 1941 by President Franklin D. Roosevelt (USA) and Prime Minister Winston Churchill (UK), this document outlined principles for a post-war world and set the stage for the UN’s creation. |
| Naming |
The term “United Nations” was coined by President Roosevelt in 1941 to describe the allied nations opposed to the Axis powers. |
| Declaration by United Nations |
On January 1, 1942, representatives from 26 Allied nations, including India under British colonial rule, signed this declaration in Washington DC, formalizing their alliance and war objectives. |
| Official Formation |
UN was officially established on October 24, 1945, when its Charter was ratified by 51 member countries
It included 5 permanent Security Council members: France, Republic of China, Soviet Union, UK, and US. |
| First General Assembly |
The inaugural meeting of the UN General Assembly took place on January 10, 1946. |
| Core Goals |
- To maintain international peace and security.
- To foster friendly relations among nations.
- To cooperate in solving international problems and in promoting respect for human rights.
- To be a centre for harmonizing the actions of nations in attaining these common ends.
|
| India’s Role |
India was a founding member of the United Nations, having signed the initial Declaration alongside 25 other Allied nations during World War II. |
Rights and Privileges:
- The rights and privileges of member states in the United Nations are designed to ensure that all members can effectively participate in the organization’s activities and benefit from its resources.
PYQ:
[2022] With reference to the “United Nations Credentials Committee”, consider the following statements:
- It is a committee set up by the UN Security Council and works under its supervision.
- It traditionally meets in March, June and September every year
- It assesses the credentials of all UN members before submitting a report to the General Assembly for approval.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
(a) 3 only
(b) 1 and 3
(c) 2 and 3
(d) 1 and 2 |
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Map of West Asia
Mains level: Reason behind the west Asia is a heavily militarised region
Why in the news?
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s ‘Trends in International Arms Transfers 2023’, four of the top 10 largest importers of arms last year were from West Asia, with the U.S. being the main supplier
SIPRI Report: Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2023
- India’s Arms Imports: Increased by 4.7% compared to 2014-18.
- European Arms Imports: Saw a staggering 94% increase between 2014-18 and 2019-23, likely influenced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
- Russia-India Arms Trade: Russia remained India’s largest arms supplier, accounting for 36% of total imports.
- Top Global Importers: India, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar emerged as the top three importers globally.
- Ukraine’s Arms Imports: Became the fourth largest arms importer during the specified period.
- China-Pakistan Arms Trade: Pakistan, the fifth largest arms importer, obtained 82% of its arms from China.
- France’s Arms Exports: Emerged as the world’s second-largest arms supplier, after the United States.
- French Arms Exports to India: India was highlighted as the largest single recipient of French arms exports.
|
West Asia has largest expenditure in Defence as per GDP %
Reason behind the west Asia is heavily militarised region:
- Regional Conflicts and Tensions: The region is characterized by ongoing conflicts and tensions, such as those in Yemen and Syria, leading countries to seek advanced weaponry to address security challenges
- Oil Boom: The oil boom in West Asia has led to increased military spending as countries seek to protect their oil resources and maintain regional stability
- Internal Factors: The presence of Western arms and personnel in some Persian Gulf countries has contributed to internal resurgences, leading states to invest in military capabilities for self-defense
- Diversification of Arms Suppliers: West Asian states have adopted the principle of diversifying sources of arms supply, leading to a broader range of arms imports from various suppliers globally
- Client-Supplier Relationship: The relationship between client states and arms suppliers is often favorable to the recipient, with the recipient receiving the arms they wish and the supplier bowing to their demands
- Regional Disputes and Border Skirmishes: Border disputes, threats, and wars have made it imperative for West Asian states to resort to modern and efficient national defense systems like conflict between Iran and Israel
Conclusion:
Encourage diplomatic efforts to resolve regional conflicts and tensions through dialogue and negotiation, aiming to reduce the need for excessive military spending. Advocate for the establishment of regional arms control agreements to limit the proliferation of weapons and promote stability in the West Asia region.
Mains PYQ
Q How will I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE and USA) grouping transform India’s position in global politics?
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Locations mentioned in the newscard
Mains level: NA
Why in the News?
The places discussed in this article are pertinent to conflict zones either due to Geopolitical conflicts or Climate change impacts.
Political and Ethnic Conflicts:
- Darfur Region, Sudan:
- The Darfur region constitutes Western Sudan, present-Eastern Chad, and the present-Northern part of the Central African Republic Region.
- This conflict involves clashes between government forces and paramilitary groups, resulting in widespread violence and displacement, particularly in regions like Darfur.
- Darfur has experienced conflict for years, with ethnic tensions and government-rebel clashes leading to violence and displacement.
- The conflict has been characterized by allegations of ethnic cleansing and human rights abuses.
- Somalia:
- The Conflict zone of Somalia is situated in the South-Eastern part (Mogadishu).
- Al Shabaab is an Islamist militant group that has been engaged in a prolonged insurgency against the Somali government.
- The conflict has led to widespread violence, including attacks on civilians, and has contributed to significant displacement within Somalia
- Nigeria:
- Groups like Boko Haram and its offshoot, Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), have carried out attacks, including suicide bombings and kidnappings, targeting civilians and security forces.
- This conflict has led to widespread displacement (Due to infringements of Human rights), particularly in northeastern Nigeria.
- Nigeria is traversed by several major rivers, including the Niger River and the Benue River.
- The Niger River flows from southeastern Guinea through Mali, Niger, Benin, and Nigeria. It is the third-longest river in Africa behind the Nile and the Congo.
- Niger River tributaries include the Sokoto, Kaduna, Benue, and Bani Rivers.
- Tigray, Ethiopia:
- The conflict in Tigray erupted between regional forces and the Ethiopian government in late 2020, leading to widespread violence, displacement, and allegations of human rights abuses.
- Ethiopia has experienced internal conflicts fueled by ethnic divisions and political grievances, leading to sporadic violence and displacement in various regions.
- The region is part of the Nile River Basin.
Resource-based Conflicts (Climate Change Impact):
- Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC):
- The DRC has been plagued by multiple armed groups operating in different regions, often vying for control over territory and resources.
- The M23 rebel group is one of several militias involved in the conflict, leading to displacement and humanitarian crises.
- The DRC is home to the Congo River, one of the largest rivers in Africa.
- The Congo River drains a total watershed area of 3,690,750km 2, covering all of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), as well as parts of Congo-Brazzaville, Cameroon, the Central African Republic (CAR), Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia and Angola.
- Burkina Faso:
- Burkina Faso (landlocked in West Africa) has experienced a rise in violence perpetrated by groups affiliated with al Qaeda and the Islamic State, leading to displacement and insecurity, especially in the northern regions.
- This conflict is often seen as a spillover from instability in neighboring Mali.
- This region lies on the Prime Meridian.
- As it is landlocked, it does not have any significant rivers or lakes within its territory. However, it is part of the Volta River Basin, which includes rivers like the Black Volta and the White Volta.
- Sahel Region:
- The Sahel is a 3,860-km transitional belt stretching between the Sahara Desert and sub-Saharan Africa, extending from Senegal to Eritrea. It consists of Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, Eritrea, and a portion of southern Algeria.
- Climate: Characterized by semi-arid conditions and features barren landscapes, making it susceptible to desertification.
- It serves as a historical and cultural crossroads, where Arabic, Islamic, and nomadic cultures from the north intersect with indigenous and traditional cultures from the south.
- The region faces numerous challenges, including ethno-religious tensions, political instability, widespread poverty, natural disasters, and the proliferation of criminal and political movements.
- Its vast, ungoverned spaces make it a hotspot for various illicit activities.
- Notable water bodies in the Sahel region:
- Niger River: It is a major waterway that traverses through countries such as Mali, Niger, and Nigeria, providing water for irrigation, transportation, and fishing.
- Senegal River: The Senegal River forms part of the northern border of Senegal and Mauritania. It provides water for agriculture, supports ecosystems, and is used for transportation and hydropower generation.
- Bani River: A tributary of the Niger River, the Bani River flows through Mali during the rainy season, supporting agriculture and wildlife in the region.
- Koumoue River: This river, located in Burkina Faso, is a tributary of the Niger River and plays a crucial role in providing water for agricultural activities in the region.
- Logone River: The Logone River, flowing through Chad and Cameroon, is an important water source for communities living along its banks, supporting agriculture and providing habitats for wildlife.
- Mare aux Hippopotames: This seasonal lake, located in Niger, fills with water during the rainy season and serves as an essential habitat for wildlife, including hippos and migratory birds.
- Lake Chad: Although Lake Chad has significantly diminished in size over the years due to factors such as climate change, overuse of water resources, and population growth, it remains an important water body for countries like Chad, Nigeria, Niger, and Cameroon.
- Afar Triangle:
- The Afar Triangle, also known as the Afar Depression or Afar Rift, is a geological depression in the Horn of Africa. It encompasses parts of Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti.
- It is said to be world’s Sixth Ocean in making.
- It is located at the tri-junction of the African, Arabian, and Somali tectonic plates, making it one of the most geologically active regions on Earth.
- Border disputes between countries have occasionally involved the Afar region, particularly along the border areas.
Previous Year Questions:
[2013] Which one of the following pairs is correctly matched?
| Geographical Feature |
Region |
| (a) Abyssinian Plateau |
Arabia |
| (b) Atlas Mountains |
North-Western Africa |
| (c) Guiana Highlands |
South-Western Africa |
| (d) Okavango Basin |
Patagonia |
[2020] Consider the following pairs:
| Rivers |
Flows into |
| 1. Mekong |
Andaman Sea |
| 2. Thames |
Irish Sea |
| 3. Volga |
Caspian Sea |
| 4. Zambezi |
Indian Ocean |
Which of the pairs given above is/are correctly matched?
(a) 1 and 2 only
(b) 3 only
(c) 3 and 4 only
(d) 1, 2 and 4 only
[2022] The term “Levant” often heard in the news roughly corresponds to which of the following regions?
(a) Region along the eastern Mediterranean shores
(b) Region along North African shores stretching from Egypt to Morocco
(c) Region along Persian Gulf and Horn of Africa
(d) The entire coastal areas of Mediterranean Sean
[2022] Consider the following pairs:
| Region often mentioned, in the news |
Country |
| 1. Anatolia
2. Amhara
3. Cabo Delgado
4. Catalonia |
Turkey
Ethiopia
Spain
Italy |
How many pairs given above are correctly matched?
(a) Only one pair
(b) Only two pairs
(c) Only three pairs
(d) All four pairs
[2023] Consider the following pairs:
|
Area of conflict mentioned in news |
Country where it is located |
| 1. |
Donbas |
Syria |
| 2. |
Kachin |
Ethiopia |
| 3. |
Tigray |
North Yemen |
How many of the above pairs are correctly matched?
a) Only one
b) Only two
c) All three
d) None
[2023] Consider the following pairs:
|
Regions often mentioned in News |
Reason for being in News |
| 1. |
North Kivu and Ituri |
War between Armenia and Azerbaijan |
| 2. |
Nagorno-Karabakh |
Insurgency in Mozambique |
| 3. |
Kherson and Zaporizhzhia |
Dispute between Israel and Lebanon |
How many of the above pairs are correctly matched?
(a) Only one
(b) Only two
(c) All three
(d) None
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: NA
Mains level: Why Israel position is so strong in conflict?
Why in the news?
Writings and statements from Israel give us an understanding of what “a Jewish national home” means and the ongoing conflict it involves.
Historical origins and evolution of the concept of a Jewish national home
- Historical and Religious Context: The concept of a Promised Land for the Jewish people dates back to biblical times, with references in the Hebrew Bible (Old Testament) to the land of Canaan as a homeland promised to the descendants of Abraham. The idea of returning to this ancestral homeland remained significant in Jewish religious and cultural traditions throughout centuries of diaspora.
- Zionism: The modern movement for Jewish nationalism, known as Zionism, gained momentum in the late 19th century. Zionist thinkers and leaders, such as Theodor Herzl, envisioned the establishment of a Jewish homeland in Palestine.
- Theodor Herzl and the First Zionist Congress: The publication of Herzl’s book “Der Judenstaat” (“The Jewish State”) in 1896 is often considered the starting point of modern political Zionism.
- British Mandate for Palestine: During World War I, the British government issued the Balfour Declaration in 1917, expressing support for the establishment of a national home for the Jewish people in Palestine.
- Settlement and Immigration: Jewish immigration to Palestine increased significantly during the early 20th century, as Jewish communities sought to establish settlements and build infrastructure in the region.
- United Nations Partition Plan: In 1947, the United Nations proposed a partition plan for Palestine, which would have divided the territory into separate Jewish and Arab states, along with an internationalized Jerusalem. While Jewish leaders accepted the plan, Arab leaders rejected it, leading to the Arab-Israeli War of 1948 and the establishment of the State of Israel.
Continue Struggle after Arab-Israeli War 1948
- International Response and Recognition after 1967 war: UN Security Council resolutions 242 (1967) and 338 (1973) addressed the aftermath of the 1967 war. The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) was recognized by the Arab League and the UN General Assembly as the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. The Arab League Declaration/Initiative of 2002 and the Palestinian Non-Paper outlined visions for a solution, including reference to the 1967 Armistice Line as a border.
- Annexation of West Bank Settlements: In 2018, Israel’s ruling Likud Party unanimously endorsed a resolution calling for the annexation of West Bank settlements, indicating a hardline stance on territorial claims.
Why Israel’s position is so strong in conflict?
- Military Might: The military success of Israel in the 1967 war shifted the dynamics of the Arab-Israeli conflict, convincing Arab states that they could not achieve victory through military means. However, it did not lead to a recommendation for a political settlement based on compromise.
- Madrid Conference of 1991: The Madrid Conference was a significant event in the peace process, though the phrase “territories for peace” was not explicitly mentioned in the invitation letters. It marked a diplomatic effort to address the conflict.
- American Support : The United States has provided unprecedented support to Israel, both diplomatically and militarily.And Israel’s conduct and efforts to shape the post-war situation have been growing.
Conclusion: The idea of a Jewish national home emerged from historical and religious roots, gained momentum through Zionism, and was furthered by international recognition. Resolution requires diplomacy, acknowledgment of historical grievances, and genuine efforts towards mutual understanding and compromise to stabalise the situation.
Mains PYQ
Q “India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss (UPSC IAS/2018)
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: NA
Mains level: How could Middle East tensions impact the Indian economy?
Why in the news?
Iran’s attack on Israel earlier this week has sparked tensions in the Middle East and beyond. India, which has friendly ties with both the countries, has expressed “serious concerns” about escalation of hostilities.
India-Israel trade has doubled in the last five years
- India established diplomatic relations with Israel in 1992. Since then, trade between two countries has been rising significantly, from around $200 million in 1992 (comprising primarily of diamonds), to $10.7 billion (excluding defence) in the Financial Year 2022-23.
What are the main components of India’s trade with Israel?
- Based on India’s 8-digit Harmonized System code, under which trade items are classified, the most valued items exported by India to Israel included diesel, diamonds, aviation turbine fuel, radar apparatus, Basmati rice, T-shirts, and wheat.
Value of India-Iran trade came down in the last five years
- India’s trade with Iran has seen a contraction in recent years, before an uptick in the FY 2022-23. It increased by 21.77 per cent — from $1.94 billion in 2021-22 to $2.33 billion in 2022-23.
Israel and Iran do not have significant FDI in India
- Israel’s FDI in India: Israel’s contribution to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in India is relatively low, accounting for just 0.4% of the total FDI inflows between April 2000 and December 2023. FDI from Israel to India amounted to $288 million during this period.
- Indian Investment in Israel: Conversely, Indian firms have invested more in Israel, with cumulative Overseas Direct Investment (ODI) reaching around US$ 383 million from April 2000 to May 2023.
- India’s Investment in Iran: India is involved in developing the first phase of the Shahid Beheshti Port at Chabahar in Iran. This initiative aims to enhance India’s connectivity and trade relations with the Middle East and Central Asia.
How could Middle East tensions impact the Indian economy?
- Impact on Trade Routes: Tensions in the Middle East, particularly in the Red Sea region, could disrupt crucial trade routes connecting Europe and Asia. Roughly 12 percent of global trade depends on this route, potentially affecting India’s trade.
- Shipping Disruptions: Yemen-based militants, known as the Houthis, have targeted ships passing through the Red Sea since November 2023, leading to shipping disruptions. This could exacerbate India’s trade problems.
- Stability Concerns in West Asia: The conflict between Iran and Israel adds to the instability in West Asia, potentially delaying projects like the Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).
- Impact on Petroleum Prices: While the ongoing conflict may not significantly disrupt crude oil and gas production, shipping disruptions in the Red Sea could lead to higher oil and gas prices. However, the impact on Indian consumers may be minimal as the government could offset price increases by reducing taxes.
Conclusion: India’s friendly ties with both Israel and Iran provide an opportunity for diplomatic engagement to mitigate the escalation of hostilities in the region. By actively participating in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and promote dialogue, India can contribute to regional stability and safeguard its economic interests.
Mains PYQ
Q There arose a serious challenge to the Democratic State System between the two World Wars.” Evaluate the statement. (UPSC IAS/2021)
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Iran and Israel
Mains level: Middle East countries; Iran and Israel
Why in the news?
Iran has said that its April 12 attacks on Israel were in response to Israeli war jets targeting an Iranian consulate in Syria earlier this month, leading to the death of its senior military commanders.
Context:
-
- The Iran-Israel relationship has not always been as fraught as it is today. Iran was one of the first countries in the region to recognise Israel after its formation in 1948. It was only after 1979 that their diplomatic ties ended.
- Iran–Israel Relations: This can be studied through four major phases:
-
- Ambivalent (1947-1953);
- Friendly (1953-1979);
- Worsening (1979-1990);
- Open Hostility (1991-present);
1953 to 1979 Iran–Israel Relations:
- From 1953 to 1979, during the rule of the Pahlavi dynasty in Iran, the relationship between Iran and Israel was relatively friendly.
- Iran recognized Israel as a sovereign state in 1950, making it the second Muslim-majority country to do so after Turkey.
- Despite occasional tensions, Iran and Israel engaged in significant economic, political, and military cooperation during this period. This cooperation extended to various sectors and included joint projects.
- Iran supported Israel during conflicts with Arab nations, indicating a level of alignment in their geopolitical interests.
- One notable joint project between Iran and Israel was the construction of the Trans-Israel oil pipeline, showcasing the depth of their cooperation, particularly in the economic sphere.
Post 1979 Iran–Israel Relations:
- After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran became a religious state, with a significant shift in its foreign policy and worldview.
- Iran, under the new regime, viewed Israel as an occupier of Palestinian land and referred to it as “Little Satan.” This represented a significant departure from the previous regime’s stance.
- Iran, under Ayatollah Khomeini, also labeled the United States as the “Great Satan” and saw both Israel and the US as interfering in the region’s affairs.
- Iran sought to expand its influence in the region, challenging traditional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Israel, both of which were US allies.
- Initially at odds with pan-Arabism championed by leaders like Gamal Abdel Nasser, Iran’s relations with Arab countries, such as Egypt, warmed after Nasser died in 1970.
- The signing of an accord between Iran and Iraq in 1975, which included Iran’s agreement to cease support for Kurdish-Iraqi separatists, led to a temporary easing of hostility between the two nations.
- These shifts in Iran’s foreign policy and its improved relations with neighboring countries, as well as Iraq, led to a decrease in Israel’s strategic importance to Iran.
India’s Stance:
- India’s Neutral Stance: India has adopted a neutral stance on the conflict between Iran and Israel, emphasizing the importance of peace and stability in the region.
- Strategic Partnership with Israel: Despite its neutral stance, India maintains a strategic partnership with Israel, characterized by significant military and economic ties, including a substantial trade volume of around $7.5 billion.
- Cultural and Linguistic Ties with Iran: India also has cultural and linguistic ties with Iran, along with strategic economic interests, such as the Chabahar port project, which connects India to Central Asia through Iran.
- Focus on Citizen Safety: India’s primary focus amidst the escalating conflict is ensuring the safety and well-being of its citizens, with approximately 10,000 Indian nationals in Iran and an additional 18,000 in Israel.
Conclusion: Iran-Israel ties, once friendly, soured post-1979 due to Iran’s religious revolution. India maintains neutrality, balancing strategic partnerships with both nations while prioritizing citizen safety amid escalating tensions.
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: West Asia
Mains level: Read the attached story
Introduction
- What initially began as a localized conflict between Israel and Hamas has rapidly spiralled into a regional security crisis, casting a shadow of uncertainty and instability over West Asia.
- This evolving crisis involves a complex web of state and non-state actors, each with its own objectives and strategies, making it a highly volatile and unpredictable situation.
Escalation beyond Borders
As Israel launched its military campaign in Gaza in response to Hamas’s cross-border attacks, concerns grew that the conflict could spill over beyond the borders of Palestine. The involvement of various actors has further complicated the situation:
- Hezbollah’s Solidarity: Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia group backed by Iran, fired rockets at Israeli forces in solidarity with the Palestinians. This action marked an extension of the conflict beyond the immediate theatre of operations.
- Exchange of Fire: Israel and Hezbollah engaged in multiple exchanges of fire, with both sides exercising restraint to prevent a full-scale war. Nevertheless, these incidents escalated regional tensions.
- Iran-Backed Militias: Iran, a key supporter of non-state actors in the region, provided backing to groups such as Hamas, the Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Houthis, and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria. This support has contributed to the widening of the crisis.
- Houthi Disruptions: In a bid to express solidarity with the Palestinians, Houthi rebels in Yemen began targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Controlling significant portions of Yemen, including the Red Sea coast, the Houthis disrupted maritime traffic in a crucial international waterway.
Global Ramifications
The crisis in West Asia has not remained confined to the region; it has global implications:
- U.S. Airstrikes in Yemen: The United States, in support of Israel’s actions, conducted airstrikes in Yemen, directly involving itself in the regional conflict. These airstrikes added a new dimension to the crisis.
- Hashad al-Shabi’s Escalation: The Shia Mobilisation Forces of Iraq and Syria, backed by Iran, launched over a hundred attacks against U.S. troops stationed in these countries. These attacks were seen as retaliation against U.S. support for Israel.
- Spread of Instability: As instability spread across the region, extremist groups, including the Islamic State, sought to exploit the situation. Iraq and Syria, in particular, remained vulnerable to internal and external challenges.
- Cross-Border Retaliation: In response to Iran’s actions, Pakistan carried out airstrikes in Iranian territory, further escalating tensions in the region.
Key Players and Their Objectives
Understanding the crisis requires an examination of the key players and their objectives:
- Israel’s Aims: Israel’s primary objectives include dismantling Hamas and securing the release of hostages held by the group. Israel enjoys unwavering support from the United States in pursuing these goals.
- Iran’s Backing: Iran plays a central role as the primary supporter of various anti-Israel non-state actors in West Asia, offering support to groups such as Hamas, the Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Houthis, and Shia militias.
- U.S. Interests: The United States, with a significant military presence in the region, seeks to ensure Israel’s security, protect American troops and assets, and maintain the U.S.-led order in West Asia.
Implications for Regional Security
The crisis in West Asia has ushered in a period of heightened insecurity and instability:
- Widespread Security Crisis: Unlike previous conflicts that often involved nation-states or specific non-state actors, this crisis encompasses a broader range of powerful states and non-state actors, creating a highly volatile environment.
- Disruption of the Old Order: The crisis has exposed the fragility of the old U.S.-led order in the region. Iran-backed proxies directly target Israeli and American positions, while Iran flexes its military muscle through cross-border attacks.
Looking Ahead
As the crisis continues to unfold, several key factors warrant consideration:
- No Clear Resolution: With more than 100 days of conflict, Israel’s objectives in Gaza remain unfulfilled, and there is no apparent path to a resolution. The ongoing war fuels retaliatory attacks by Hezbollah and Houthis.
- Effectiveness of U.S. Airstrikes: U.S. airstrikes against various groups have not proven effective in deterring them from launching new attacks. The region remains volatile.
- Potential for Further Instability: The ongoing instability in West Asia creates opportunities for extremist groups, including the Islamic State, to exploit the situation. Iraq and Syria remain particularly susceptible to internal and external challenges.
- Changing U.S. Role: Historically, the United States played a dominant role in the region, but it now appears more as a disruptor than a guarantor of peace and stability. Restoring stability and ending the war present significant challenges.
- A Glimmer of Hope: Amid the ongoing crisis, a positive development is the maintenance of the Saudi-Iran détente and the Saudi-Houthi peace, providing a ray of hope amidst the turmoil.
Conclusion
- The escalating regional crisis in West Asia underscores the intricate interplay of state and non-state actors in a highly volatile environment.
- As the situation continues to evolve, its implications for regional stability and global security remain a subject of concern and vigilance.
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Operation Ajay
Mains level: Not Much
Central Idea
- India has initiated Operation Ajay to evacuate its citizens who wish to return from conflict-ridden Israel.
- External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar announced this operation, emphasizing the safety and well-being of Indian nationals abroad.
Operation Ajay
- Evacuation Plan: Special chartered flights and other arrangements are being organized for the return of Indian citizens from Israel.
- Second Evacuation: This marks the second evacuation operation this year, following Operation Kaveri, which brought back several thousand Indian citizens from strife-torn Sudan in April-May.
Significance: Indian Jewish Community
- The Indian Jewish community, with an ancestry spanning over 2000 years in India, has a unique history.
- India has been a welcoming home to them, where they thrived without encountering anti-Semitism, making it a distinct place on the global map.
- However, the landscape changed with the independence of India in 1947 and the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948.
- This transformation marked the beginning of a new chapter in India-Israel relations, leading to the migration of Indian Jews to their religious homeland.
Diverse Indian Jewish Groups
Indian Jews can be categorized into four main sects, each with its own historical origins and cultural traditions:
- Cochin Jews: Tracing their arrival to India back to 50 CE, they primarily settled in the southern region.
- Bene Israel: The largest group among Indian Jews, they settled in and around Maharashtra and Konkan.
- Baghdadi Jews: This group, part of the most recent wave of Jewish migration, established communities in port cities like Calcutta, Bombay, and Rangoon.
- Bnei Menashe: Settled in the North East, they are another significant segment of Indian Jews.
Complex Reception in Israel
The migration of Indian Jews to Israel was not without challenges. Israeli society struggled to embrace them due to several factors:
- Internal Divisions: The four Indian Jewish groups had substantial differences and disagreements among themselves. These internal divisions, combined with bias from Jews of European origin, complicated the reception of Indian Jews, especially in the initial years of migration.
- Discrimination: The Bene Israel, primarily from Maharashtra, faced significant discrimination upon their arrival in Israel. Reports in the 1950s highlighted instances of racism and unequal treatment, including job and housing discrimination.
- Differing Motivations: Indian Jews’ motivations for migrating varied. While the Cochin Jews were seen as driven by religious reasons, the Bene Israel were often perceived as seeking better economic prospects, leading to different treatment based on perceived motives.
- Economic Disparities: The economic differences among the four groups fueled animosity. Some attributed the Cochin Jews’ messianic aspirations to poverty, while the Baghdadi Jews considered the Bene Israel as lacking proper religious traditions.
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: NA
Mains level: Israel-Palestine crisis, Impact on the region, India's relations and its Impact
What’s the news?
- The recent escalation of violence between Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group, and Israel has resulted in a significant loss of life and raised concerns internationally. At the heart of this conflict is Operation Al-Aqsa Deluge, initiated by Hamas, which has led to a series of events with far-reaching implications for the region.
Central idea
- The recent Hamas operation, Toofan Al-Aqsa (Al-Aqsa Flood), bears uncanny similarities to the launch of the 19-day Yom Kippur War that occurred 50 years ago. While the Yom Kippur War had inconclusive results, it led to a significant regional shift, ultimately resulting in Israel’s acceptance of the ‘land for peace’ formula at the Camp David Accords six years later.
Quick recap: Understand the conflict
- Muhammad Deif’s Statement: Muhammad Deif, the military commander of Hamas, delivered a recorded message, characterizing the operation as a moment for people to regain their revolution.
- The Significance of Al-Aqsa Mosque: Central to this conflict is the Al-Aqsa Mosque, one of the holiest sites in Islam after Mecca and Medina. Situated on a hill known as Temple Mount to Jews and the Noble Sanctuary to Muslims, the mosque is located in the heart of Jerusalem’s Old City. It houses two important Muslim holy sites: the Dome of the Rock and the Al-Aqsa Mosque (also known as the Qibli Mosque), dating back to the 8th century AD.
- Historical Context: The Al-Aqsa Mosque complex overlooks the Western Wall, a sacred site for Jews believed to have been constructed 3,000 years ago by King Solomon.
- Capture by Israel: In 1967, during the Middle East War, Israel captured the site and later annexed it, actions not recognized internationally.
- Triggering Tensions: The Al-Aqsa Mosque has been a long-standing focal point of Israeli-Palestinian tensions, leading to clashes and conflicts.
- 2021 Conflict: Recent clashes in 2021 resulted in a 10-day-long war, leading to casualties on both sides.
- April Clashes: In April of the same year, Israeli police clashed with Palestinians at the site, sparking cross-border exchanges of fire.
- International Concern: The ongoing violence, particularly centered around Al-Aqsa Mosque, has raised international concerns and has broader implications for regional stability.
Hold On! Don’t scroll past this
An overview of major flare-ups and significant events (2005 to October 2023)
- August 2005: Israel unilaterally withdraws from the Gaza Strip, leaving it under Palestinian Authority control.
- January 25, 2006: Hamas wins a majority of seats in Palestinian legislative elections, leading to a cutoff of aid by Israel and the U.S. due to Hamas’s refusal to renounce violence and recognize Israel.
- June 25, 2006: Hamas militants capture Israeli army conscript Gilad Shalit, leading to Israeli air strikes and incursions. Shalit is released more than five years later in a prisoner exchange.
- June 14, 2007: Hamas takes over Gaza in a brief civil war, ousting Fatah forces loyal to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
- December 27, 2008: Israel launches a 22-day military offensive in Gaza in response to rocket attacks. A ceasefire is eventually agreed upon after casualties on both sides.
- November 14, 2012: Israel kills Hamas’s military chief of staff, Ahmad Jabari, leading to eight days of conflict involving Palestinian militant rocket fire and Israeli air strikes.
- July-August 2014: The kidnapping and killing of three Israeli teenagers by Hamas lead to a seven-week war, resulting in casualties in both Gaza and Israel.
- March 2018: Palestinian protests begin at Gaza’s border with Israel, leading to clashes and casualties.
- May 2021: Tension during Ramadan leads to clashes at the Al Aqsa compound in Jerusalem. Hamas launches rocket attacks from Gaza, and Israel responds with airstrikes, resulting in an 11-day conflict.
- August 2022: Israeli airstrikes target an Islamic Jihad commander, leading to rocket attacks from Islamic Jihad in Gaza and a limited escalation.
- January 2023: Islamic Jihad fires rockets into Israel in response to Israeli actions in a refugee camp.
- October 2023: Hamas launches a major attack on Israel from Gaza, combining a border crossing with rocket barrages. Islamic Jihad joins the attack.
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Potential Outcomes of the Ongoing Conflict
- Israel’s Military Superiority: Israel is not under an existential threat from Hamas, and the outcome of the conflict is expected to favor Israel. A massive ground incursion into Gaza may follow to restore morale, re-establish strategic dominance, and rescue captives.
- Reevaluation of Israeli Strategies: The conflict’s experiences, including intelligence failures and overreliance on high-tech missile defense and artificial intelligence, may compel Israel to revise its strategic doctrines.
- Impact on Non-State Arab Militias: Depending on the conflict’s endgame, it could potentially boost the standing of non-state Arab militias such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, and others in the region.
- Geographic Confinement: The crisis is likely to remain geographically confined to Gaza and its immediate surroundings, due to limited support for Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the region.
- The Palestinian Authority’s Dilemma: The Palestinian Authority is divided between the West Bank and Gaza, with Fatah losing credibility. Hamas and Islamic Jihad are capitalizing on this to establish their presence in the West Bank.
- Regional Non-Support for Hamas: Regionally, there is little support for Hamas, except for Turkey. Egypt, in particular, does not favor Hamas, given its past ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. Gulf monarchies, except Qatar, strongly disapprove of Hamas.
- Iran’s Involvement: Iran has been a mentor to Hamas and Islamic Jihad and has attempted to supply weapons to Gaza. Iran’s involvement could escalate the crisis further.
Impact on the Region
- Risk of Delay in Regional Diplomacy: The crisis may delay regional diplomatic efforts, including the potential rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, due to Israel’s reluctance to make concessions sought by Riyadh.
- Repercussions for the Abraham Accords: The Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and some Arab states, could face challenges due to the ongoing conflict.
- Potential Iranian Gains: Iran may feel emboldened by the conflict, potentially affecting regional dynamics and tensions.
Impact on India
- While India is not directly affected, it could feel some indirect effects, such as an oil price rise, impacts on the Indian diaspora, and potential setbacks for regional economic initiatives.
- However, India’s reputation as a stable and fast-growing economy may be enhanced in this context.
Conclusion
- The Toofan Al-Aqsa crisis has regional implications that could alter the dynamics in the Middle East. As the situation evolves, it remains essential for stakeholders, including India, to monitor developments closely and prepare for potential repercussions while seeking avenues for diplomatic engagement and stability in the region.
Must read:
India’s Evolving Relations with Israel and Palestine
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Op Kaveri
Mains level: Not Much
India has launched “Operation Kaveri” to evacuate its citizens from war-torn Sudan.
What is Operation Kaveri?
- It is the recent series of evacuations held by India over the last few years to rescue its nationals in crisis-hit countries. India rescued its nationals last year from war-hit Ukraine and Afghanistan.
- The operation was launched in response to the conflict and breakdown of essential services in Sudan that had brought the country to a standstill.
- India has positioned two transport aircraft of the IAF in the Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah and a naval ship at a key port in Sudan as part of its contingency plans to evacuate its stranded nationals.
Behind the name ‘Kaveri’
- The choice of naming this operation as ‘Operation Kaveri’ has a lot of significance.
- Kaveri is one of the major Indian rivers flowing through the southern states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
- The river is sacred to the people of the region and is worshipped as the Goddess Kaveriamma (mother Kaveri).
- Rivers reach their destination irrespective of barriers. It’s like a mother who will ensure she will bring her children back to safety.
About Sudan
- Sudan is a country located in North Africa, bordered by Egypt to the north, Libya to the northwest, Chad to the west, the Central African Republic to the southwest, South Sudan to the south, Ethiopia to the southeast, and Eritrea to the east.
- It is the third-largest country in Africa and has a diverse population of around 43 million people.
- According to the World Bank, around 46% of the population lives below the poverty line, and many Sudanese people struggle to access basic services such as healthcare, education, and clean water.
What is the crisis all about?
- Sudan is facing a crisis due to fighting between two rival military factions.
- The conflict involves the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
- The fighting began in April 2022 after tensions rose following the coup that saw the two factions topple a civilian government in October 2021.
- The conflict began when an internationally-backed plan to launch a new transition with civilian parties was floated.
- Under the plan, both the army and the RSF had to cede power, but two issues were contentious: the formal placing of the army under civilian oversight and the timetable for the RSF to be integrated into the regular armed forces.
Global Implications of the Conflict
- The volatile region, which borders the Red Sea, the Sahel, and the Horn of Africa, could be destabilized if the fighting continues.
- The conflict in Sudan has the potential to cause a refugee crisis, with people fleeing the country to escape the violence and instability.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: West Bank, Gaza
Mains level: Israel-Palestine Issue
US has urged Israel and the Palestinians to ease tensions amid a spike in violence that has put the West Bank region on edge.
Where is West Bank?
- The West Bank is a landlocked territory near the coast of the Mediterranean in Western Asia that forms the main bulk of the Palestinian territories.
- It is bordered by Jordan and the Dead Sea to the east and by Israel to the south, west, and north.
Point of discussion: Anti-Semitism
- Anti-Semitism (hatred against Jews) is an officially stated policy of many theocratic countries (created by divine orders of religion).
- This includes entire Arab world, the self-proclaimed caliphate ‘Turkiye’ and even Pakistan.
- Jews, the micro-minority religion of the world were denied access to their homeland.
What is the Israel-Palestine Conflict?
- The land to which Jews and Palestinians lay claim to was under the Ottoman Empire and then the British Empire in early 20th century.
- Palestinian people —the Arab people from the same area— want to have a state by the name of Palestine in that area.
- The conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is over who gets what land and how it’s controlled.
- Jews fleeing the persecution in Europe at the time wanted to establish a Jewish state on the land which they believe to be their ancient homeland.
- The Arab at the time resisted, saying the land was theirs. The land at the time was called Palestine.
- In 1917’s Balfour Declaration, the United Kingdom declared its support for the establishment of a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine.
- Arabs resisted it which led to violence.
Jews into West Bank: Arab hinterland in Israel
- Some 75,000 Jews migrated to Palestine from 1922-26 and some 60,000 Jews emigrated in 1935, according to a history published by the University of Central Arkansas.
- It adds that Palestinian Arabs demanded the UK to halt Jewish emigration, but the UK ignored such calls. There were violent incidents, leading to deaths of some 500 people.
- In 1923, the British Mandate for Palestine came into effect.
- The document was issued by the League of Nations, the failed predecessor of the United Nations (UN).
- The mandate gave the UK the responsibility for creating a Jewish national homeland in the region.
- In 1936, the UK government recommended the partition of Palestine into Jewish and Arab states.
How did the issue escalate?
- In 1947, Britain referred the issue of Palestine to the UN, which came up with a partition plan.
- It put up two proposals. One, two separate states joined economically —the majority proposal— and, two, a single bi-national state made up of autonomous Jewish and Palestinian areas, the minority proposal.
- The Jewish community approved of the first of these proposals, while the Arabs opposed them both.
Israel’s independence
- In May 1948, Israel declared its independence. This was eye-pricking development for Arabs.
- The Arab countries of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Egypt invaded the newly-declared country immediately.
- When the war ended, Israel gained some territory formerly granted to Palestinian Arabs under the UN resolution in 1947.
- It also retained control over the Gaza Strip and the West Bank respectively.
Resolving the conflict
Ans. Two-state solution
- The two-state solution refers to an arrangement where Israeli and Palestinian states co-exist in the region.
- However, such a solution has not materialised over the decades.
- As outlined in the beginning and in the briefly explained roots of the conflict, the two-state solution means two separate states for Israelis and Palestinians.
Why it hasn’t worked out?
There are four main reasons why the two-state solution has not materialized by now:
[1] Borders
- There is no consensus as to how to draw the lines dividing the two proposed states.
- Many people say borders should have pre-1967 lines.
- In 1967 Israeli-Arab war, Israel captured Sinai Peninsula, Gaza Strip, West Bank, Old City of Jerusalem, and Golan Heights.
- Israel is not willing to give up these gains. It returned Sinai to Egypt in 1982.
- Moreover, there is the question of Israeli settlements in West Bank.
[2] Question of Jerusalem
- Both Israel and Palestinians claim Jerusalem as their capital and call it central to their religion and culture.
- The two-state solution typically calls for dividing it into an Israeli West and a Palestinian East, but it is not easy to draw the line — Jewish, Muslim and Christian holy sites are on top of one another.
- Israel has declared Jerusalem its ‘undivided capital’, effectively annexing its eastern half, and has built up construction that entrenches Israeli control of the city.
[3] Refugees
- A large number of Palestinians had to flee in the 1948 War.
- They and their descendants —numbering at 5 million— demand a right to return. Israel rejects this.
- The return of these people would end the demographic majority of Jews, ending the idea of Israel that’s both democratic and Jewish.
[4] Security
- Security concerns are also central to Israel as it’s constantly harassed by terrorist group Hamas that controls Gaza Strip.
- Hamas and other Islamist group in Gaza launch rockets into Israel time-to-time.
- Moreover, there are also concerns of Palestinians’ attack inside Israel.
- This year in March-April, at least 18 Israelis were killed in Palestinian attacks inside Israel.
- A total of 27 Palestinians were also killed in the period, including those who carried out attacks inside Israel. Palestinians too have their concerns.
- For Palestinians, security means an end to foreign military occupation.
Why the two-state solution is needed?
- Besides fulfilling the basic desire of both Jews and Arabs of their own states, supporters of two-state solutions say it must be backed because its alternatives are simply not workable.
- A single state merging Israel, West Bank, and Gaza would reduce Jews to a minority.
- At the same time, in such a state, Jews would be a significant minority which would mean that the Arab majority would be miffed.
Moral reasoning for a two-state solution
- It says that the aspirations of one person should not be overridden for others’ aspirations.
- It’s a struggle for collective rights between two distinct groups of people.
- Jews are the global micro-minority with a very small piece of land to exist.
- Depriving Israeli Jews of a Jewish state or Palestinians of a Palestinian state would represent a subordination of one group’s aspirations to someone else’s vision.
Way forward
- India opines that long-term peace in Israel and Palestine can be achieved only through a negotiated two-State solution leading.
- This can be done with the establishment of a sovereign, independent and viable State of Palestine living within secure and recognized borders.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Israeli region for mapping
Mains level: Not Much
Israel has reached a US-brokered agreement with Lebanon to settle their long-disputed maritime border. This has been seen as a historic deal.
Israel-Lebanon Boundary Issue
- The draft agreement aims to settle Israel and Lebanon’s competing claims over offshore gas fields in the region.
- A major source of friction was the Karish gas field, which Israel insisted fell entirely within its waters and was not a subject of negotiation.
- The issue is a little over a decade old, after the two countries declared overlapping boundaries in 2011 in the Mediterranean Sea.
- Since both countries have been technically at war, the United Nations was asked to mediate.
- The issue gained significance after Israel discovered two gas fields off its coast a decade ago, which experts had believed could help turn it into an energy exporter.
Key terms of the Agreement
- The agreement seeks to resolve a territorial dispute in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, in an area that Lebanon wants to explore for natural gas.
- The gas field in question is located on the maritime boundary between the two countries and this agreement would allow both countries to get royalties from the gas.
- It also sets a border between the maritime waters of Lebanon and Israel for the first time.
Why is this agreement signed?
- Averting terror threats: The agreement is expected to avert the immediate threat of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, after fears of escalation if negotiations fell apart.
- Energy exploitation: The agreement will create new sources of energy and income for both countries, particularly important for Lebanon, which is facing a crippling energy and financial crises.
- Alternative energy for Europe: It could also have a potentially wider impact: it would likely provide Europe with a potential new source of gas amid energy shortages caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
What the agreement does not address?
Ans. Blue Line Issue
- The agreement does not touch on the shared land border between Israel and Lebanon, which is still disputed, but where both countries are committed to a ceasefire.
- This border is also called the Blue Line, a boundary that was drawn up by the UN after Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000.
- This land border is currently patrolled by the United Nations forces.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: West Bank, Gaza
Mains level: Israel-Palestine Issue
India has termed Gaza violence as grave concern and called for immediate resumption of talk between Israel and Palestine.
Here we explain the roots of the Israel-Palestine conflict, the two-state solution and why it has not materialized.
What is the Israel-Palestine conflict?
- The land to which Jews and Palestinians lay claim to was under the Ottoman Empire and then the British Empire in early 20th century.
- Palestinian people —the Arab people from the same area— want to have a state by the name of Palestine in that area.
- The conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is over who gets what land and how it’s controlled.
- Jews fleeing the persecution in Europe at the time wanted to establish a Jewish state on the land which they believe to be their ancient homeland.
- The Arab at the time resisted, saying the land was theirs.
- The land at the time was called Palestine.
- In 1917’s Balfour Declaration, the United Kingdom declared its support for the establishment of a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine.
- Arabs resisted it which led to violence.
When did the migration begin?
- Some 75,000 Jews migrated to Palestine from1922-26 and some 60,000 Jews emigrated in 1935, according to a history published by the University of Central Arkansas.
- It adds that Palestinian Arabs demanded the UK to halt Jewish emigration, but the UK ignored such calls. There were violent incidents, leading to deaths of some 500 people.
- In 1923, the British Mandate for Palestine came into effect.
- The document was issued by the League of Nations, the failed predecessor of the United Nations (UN).
- The Mandate gave the UK the responsibility for creating a Jewish national homeland in the region.
- In 1936, the UK government, recommended the partition of Palestine into Jewish and Arab states.
Issue at the UN
- In 1947, Britain referred the issue of Palestine to the UN, which came up with a partition plan.
- It put up two proposals. One, two separate states joined economically —the majority proposal— and, two, a single bi-national state made up of autonomous Jewish and Palestinian areas, the minority proposal.
- The Jewish community approved of the first of these proposals, while the Arabs opposed them both.
Israel declares independence
- In May 1948, Israel declared its independence.
- The Arab countries of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Egypt invaded the newly-declared country immediately.
- When the war ended, Israel gained some territory formerly granted to Palestinian Arabs under the UN resolution in 1947.
- It also retained control over the Gaza Strip and the West Bank respectively.
The two-state solution and why it hasn’t worked out
- The two-state solution refers to an arrangement where Israeli and Palestinian states co-exist in the region.
- However, such a solution has not materialised over the decades.
- As outlined in the beginning and in the briefly explained roots of the conflict, the two-state solution means two separate states for Israelis and Palestinians.
There are four main reasons why the two-state solution has not materialized by now:
[1] Borders
- There is no consensus as to how to draw the lines dividing the two proposed states.
- Many people say borders should have pre-1967 lines.
- In 1967 Israeli-Arab war, Israel captured Sinai Peninsula, Gaza Strip, West Bank, Old City of Jerusalem, and Golan Heights.
- Israel is not willing to give up these gains. It returned Sinai to Egypt in 1982.
- Moreover, there is the question of Israeli settlements in West Bank.
[2] Question of Jerusalem
- Both Israel and Palestinians claim Jerusalem as their capital and call it central to their religion and culture.
- The two-state solution typically calls for dividing it into an Israeli West and a Palestinian East, but it is not easy to draw the line — Jewish, Muslim and Christian holy sites are on top of one another.
- Israel has declared Jerusalem its ‘undivided capital’, effectively annexing its eastern half, and has built up construction that entrenches Israeli control of the city.
[3] Refugees
- A large number of Palestinians had to flee in the 1948 War.
- They and their descendants —numbering at 5 million— demand a right to return. Israel rejects this.
- The return of these people would end the demographic majority of Jews, ending the idea of Israel that’s both democratic and Jewish.
[4] Security
- Security concerns are also central to Israel as it’s constantly harassed by terrorist group Hamas that controls Gaza Strip.
- Hamas and other Islamist group in Gaza launch rockets into Israel time-to-time.
- Moreover, there are also concerns of Palestinians’ attack inside Israel.
- This year in March-April, at least 18 Israelis were killed in Palestinian attacks inside Israel.
- A total of 27 Palestinians were also killed in the period, including those who carried out attacks inside Israel. Palestinians too have their concerns.
- For Palestinians, security means an end to foreign military occupation.
Why the two-state solution is needed?
- Besides fulfilling the basic desire of both Jews and Arabs of their own states, supporters of two-state solutions say it must be backed because its alternatives are simply not workable.
- A single state merging Israel, West Bank, and Gaza would reduce Jews to a minority.
- At the same time, in such a state, Jews would be a significant minority which would mean that the Arab majority would be miffed.
Moral reasoning too for a two-state solution
- It says that the aspirations of one person should not be overridden for others’ aspirations.
- It’s a struggle for collective rights between two distinct groups of people.
- Jews are the global micro-minority with a very small piece of land to exist.
- Depriving Israeli Jews of a Jewish state or Palestinians of a Palestinian state would represent a subordination of one group’s aspirations to someone else’s vision.
Way forward
- India opines that long-term peace in Israel and Palestine can be achieved only through a negotiated two-State solution leading.
- This can be done with the establishment of a sovereign, independent and viable State of Palestine living within secure and recognized borders.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Aegean Sea
Mains level: NA
Turkey has warned Greece to demilitarise islands in the Aegean Sea.
What is the news?
- Turkey says Greece has been building a military presence in violation of treaties that guarantee the unarmed status of the Aegean islands.
- It argues the islands were ceded to Greece on the condition they remained demilitarized.
Where is the Aegean Sea?
- The Aegean Sea has a surface area of about 215,000 km2 and a depth of 3,544 m at the deepest end.
- It has a maximum length of about 700 km and a width of 400 km.
- The Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits connect the Aegean Sea to the Black Sea and the Marmara Sea respectively.
- The Aegean is subdivided into the Myrtoan Sea and the Thracian Sea and lies on the African and Eurasian tectonic plates’ collision path.
Control of the region
- The sea is situated between the Anatolia and Balkan peninsulas and lies between Turkey and Greece.
- Nine out of 12 of Greece’s administrative regions border the sea.
- Turkish provinces, such as Balikesir, Canakkale, Edirne, and Izmir, borders the Aegean to the east.
- The Aegean Sea is a source of dispute and controversy between Turkey and Greece, affecting their relationship since the 1970s.
What is the dispute?
- Greece and Turkey are NATO allies.
- However they have a history of disputes over a range of issues, including mineral exploration in the eastern Mediterranean and rival claims in the Aegean Sea.
- Greece maintains Turkey has deliberately misinterpreted the treaties and says it has legal grounds to defend itself following hostile actions by Ankara.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Not much
Mains level: Global illegal migrants crisis
Thousands of migrants have flocked to Belarus’ border with Poland, hoping to get to Western Europe.
Background of the crisis
- Belarus was rocked by months of massive protests following the August 2020 election that gave authoritarian President Lukashenko a sixth term in office.
- The opposition and the West rejected the result.
- Belarusian authorities responded to the demonstrations with a fierce crackdown that saw more than 35,000 people arrested and thousands beaten by police.
- The European Union and the US reacted by imposing sanctions on Lukashenko’s government.
Immediate trigger
- The restrictions were toughened after an incident when a passenger jet flying from Greece to Lithuania was diverted by Belarus to Minsk, where authorities arrested a dissident journalist.
- The EU called it air piracy and barred Belarusian carriers from its skies.
- It cut imports of the country’s top commodities, including petroleum products and potash, an ingredient in fertilizer.
Infused by migration
- The EU sanctions deprived Lukashenko government of funds needed to contain flows of migrants.
- Planes carrying migrants from Iraq, Syria and other countries began arriving in Belarus, and they soon headed for the borders with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
Rising tensions
- Belarus is estimated to host between 5,000 and 20,000 migrants from the Middle East and Africa.
- Many have run out of money and grown increasingly desperate as the winter approaches.
- Belarusian residents are uneasy about their presence, raising pressure on the authorities to act.
Reservations by EU
- The EU accused Lukashenko of using the migrants as pawns in a “hybrid attack” against the 27-nation bloc in retaliation for the sanctions.
- Lukashenko denies the flow of migrants and said the EU is violating migrants’ rights by denying them safe passage.
What has been the response by EU countries?
- Lithuania introduced a state of emergency to deal with small groups of migrants and strengthen its border with Belarus.
- It set up tent camps to accommodate the growing number of migrants.
- Polish authorities prevented hundreds of attempts by migrants to cross reporting many deaths.
- The EU has made a strong show of solidarity with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
What is Russia’s role?
- Belarus has received strong support from its main ally, Russia, which has helped rise Lukashenko’s government with loans and political support.
- Russia considers the migrant flows resulting from the US-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and Western-backed Arab Spring uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa.
- It challenged the EU to offer financial assistance to Belarus to deal with the influx.
- At the same time, the Kremlin angrily rejected Poland’s claim that Russia bears responsibility for the crisis.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Not Much
Mains level: Geopolitics in Arabian Peninsula
The royal household in Jordan has recently seen intense drama, with the King’s popular half-brother and former crown prince was placed under de facto house arrest.
Study the map; especially, the Israel-Jordan border and Dead Sea.
Signs of a Coup
- Jordanian government statements have has stated that there had been an attempted coup to destabilize the country, mentioning unnamed “foreign entities” involved in the plot.
- The events have thus put a spotlight on Jordan’s unique position as one of the most stable countries in the Arab world, and given rise to questions about who could stand to benefit from the alleged coup.
Jordan’s stability matters
- Jordan, which this year celebrates 100 years since its creation after World War I, has for decades remained stable in a part of the world that is prone to conflict and political uncertainty.
- For its allies in the West and in the Gulf, Jordan is a strategic partner which can be relied upon for furthering political objectives in the region, which includes war-torn Syria and Iraq as well as conflict-prone Israel and Palestine.
- The support of Jordanian intelligence has proven critically important in the fight against terrorism.
- Though impoverished, the country of about a crore people has served as a haven for refugees in the conflict-ridden region.
The asylum giver
- After the Arab-Israeli wars of 1948 and 1967, Jordan received waves of refugees, to the point that about half of Jordan’s population today is made up of Palestinians.
- It has also welcomed refugees after the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, and currently hosts over 10 lakh from Syria, where a protracted civil war is going on.
- Jordan is also considered important to any future peace deal between Israel and Palestine.
How does Jordan get along with regional powers?
(1) West
- Traditionally, Jordan has maintained close relations with the US, and the fellow Sunni Muslim powers of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which together stand against Shia Iran.
- It also has diplomatic relations with Israel, and the two countries have been bound by a peace treaty since 1994.
(2) Within Gulf
- In recent years, however, Jordan’s relations with the Saudis and UAE have seen ups and downs.
- It has been particularly since the rise of their respective crown prince’s Mohammed bin Salman (known by initials MBS) and Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ).
- One of the points of friction was Saudi-UAE’s blockade of Qatar in 2017.
- It caused further consternation in Saudi and Emirati circles by maintaining strong ties with Turkey.
(3) Ties with Israel
- Jordan’s role as the region’s interlocutor has also diminished since last year, after the UAE normalized relations with Israel.
What have the powers said of the alleged coup?
- Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have expressed full support for King Abdullah. The US has called the ruler a “key partner”.
- To drive home the point, Saudi Arabia sent its foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, to Jordan’s capital Amman to express complete solidarity with Jordan’s King and his government.
- Saudi and the UAE have little to gain by destabilizing Jordan, a country that has long served as a dependable ally.
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Middle Easet
Mains level: The gulf and anti-semitism
Morocco has become the fourth Arab nation this year to recognise Israel after interventions by the US.
Must read:
Israel and Morocco
- After the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan, Morocco is the fourth Arab State since August to commit to establishing diplomatic relations with the Jewish State.
- Morocco and Israel had respectively maintained liaison offices in Tel Aviv and Rabat in the 1990s, before closing them in 2000.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu anticipated direct flights between the two countries soon.
- Palestinian officials condemned the agreement, saying it encouraged Israel’s denial of their rights.
For the sake of Western Sahara
- The White House said the US would recognise Morocco’s claim over Western Sahara as part of the deal with Israel.
- The US recognised Moroccan sovereignty over the entire Western Sahara territory.
- A former Spanish colony, it was annexed by Morocco in 1975.
- Since then it has been the subject of a long-running territorial dispute between Morocco and its indigenous Saharawi people.
- Morocco says it has always been part of its territory, while the African Union recognizes it as an independent state.
- A 16-year-long insurgency ended with an UN-brokered truce in 1991 and the promise of a referendum on independence, which has yet to take place.
Ground realities
- The latest move by the Trump administration will not necessarily have an immediate impact on the ground because the dispute is seen as greater than the whims of the American president.
- However, Trump’s backing of Morocco’s claim to sovereignty over Western Sahara is a big deal because it diminishes the hope of a people who have aspired for the independence of that territory for decades.
- The UN is still mandated to oversee a referendum for the independence of Western Sahara – although this hasn’t materialized since 1991.
Why Arab countries are normalizing their ties with Israel?
- Economics: The Gulf States see opportunities for trade and more. The deal helps the ambitious gulf, who has built themselves into military power as well as a place to do business.
- Common enemy: The UAE has used its already well-equipped armed forces in Libya and Yemen. But its most serious potential enemy is Iran, just on the other side of the Gulf.
- For the Iron wall: Normalizing its relations with gulf is a genuine achievement for the Israelis who is a believer in the strategy first described in the 1920s of an “Iron Wall” between the Jewish state and the Arabs.
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: JCPOA
Mains level: Paper 2- Peace and stability in the middle east
The assassination of Iran’s nuclear scientist has implication for the future of JCPOA and the peace and the stability of the region. The article explains why.
Context
- Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the Iranian scientist who led Iran’s nuclear weapons programme until it was disbanded, was assassinated last week.
JCPOA and U.S. Presidential election’s link with the
- Assassinations in which Israeli hands were suspected had stopped after the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed.
- The U.S. withdrew from the agreement when Trump became the U.S. President.
- In retaliation of the withdrawal, Iran began enriching uranium and stockpiling it beyond JCPOA limits.
- With that, the strategy of targeted assassinations seems to be back.
- This strategy has assumed urgency with the election of Joe Biden in the U.S., who has expressed his desire to return to the JCPOA.
Understanding the Israel link
- Israel government is apprehensive that Mr. Biden will imperil Israel’s nuclear monopoly in West Asia.
- The assassination of Fakhrizadeh appears to be part of a larger Israeli plan in conjunction with Saudi Arabia to force the U.S. into taking military action against Iran.
- An Israeli-Saudi nexus on this issue, when combined with President Trump’s, could culminate in a major military strike on Iran before he leaves office.
Win-win situation for Israel
- If the Iranian government launches revenge attacks Mr. Netanyahu would be able to persuade the U.S. to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.
- If Iran shows restraint, Israel would have shown up the Iranian regime as weak while augmenting anti-American feelings in the country.
- That anti-American feeling would make it difficult for the Biden administration to resume negotiations with Tehran on reviving JCPOA.
Conclusion
The fallout of the assassination, while benefiting Israel, will add to the instability in the region.
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Nagorno-Karabakh region
Mains level: Usual crisis in the middle east and caucasus region
Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed on a deal with Russia to end fierce clashes over Nagorno-Karabakh after a string of Azerbaijani victories in its fight to retake the disputed region.
Ending up the bloodshed
- During the course of the conflict, over 1200 have lost their lives as per the Nagorno-Karabakh authorities, while thousands have been displaced.
- Since the conflict started in September, multiple ceasefire agreements have been signed between the two sides, but none so far have been successful.
- The deal is meant to end the conflict between the two nations.
- Russia’s role in the conflict has been somewhat opaque since it supplies arms to both countries and is in a military alliance with Armenia called the Collective Security Treaty Organisation.
What is the Nagorno-Karabakh region?
- Straddling western Asia and Eastern Europe, Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, but most of the region is controlled by Armenian separatists.
- It has been part of Azerbaijan territory since the Soviet era.
- When the Soviet Union began to collapse in the late 1980s, Armenia’s regional parliament voted for the region’s transfer to Armenia; the Soviet authorities turned down the demand.
- Years of clashes followed between Azerbaijan forces and Armenian separatists.
- The violence lasted into the 1990s, leaving tens and thousands dead and displacing hundreds of thousands.
- In 1994, Russia brokered a ceasefire, by which time ethnic Armenians had taken control of the region.
Consider this PYQ:
Q.The area is known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to: (CSP 2015)
a) Central Asia
b) Middle East
c) South-East Asia
d) Central Africa
Who controls it?
- While the area remains in Azerbaijan, it is today governed by separatist Armenians who have declared it a republic called the “Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast”.
- While the Armenian government does not recognise Nagorno-Karabakh as independent, it supports the region politically and militarily.
Ethnicity and the conflict
- Ethnic tensions from decades ago have a crucial role in the dispute.
- While the Azeris claim that the disputed region was under their control in known history, Armenians maintain that Karabakh was a part of the Armenian kingdom.
- At present, the disputed region consists of a majority Armenian Christian population, even though it is internationally recognised as a part of Muslim-majority Azerbaijan.
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Causacus region mapping
Mains level: Usual crisis in the middle east and caucasus region
Fresh clashes erupted on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, threatening to push the countries back to war 26 years after a ceasefire was reached.
Try this PYQ:
Q.Turkey is located between-
(a) The Black Sea and Caspian Sea
(b) The Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea
(c) Gulf of Suez and the Mediterranean Sea
(d) Gulf of Aqaba and the Dead Sea
The conflict
- The largely mountainous and forested Nagorno-Karabakh, home for some 150,000 people, is at the centre of the conflict.
- Nagorno-Karabakh is located within Azerbaijan but is populated, mostly, by those of Armenian ethnicity (and mostly Christian compared to the Shia Muslim majority Azerbaijan).
- The conflict can be traced back to the pre-Soviet era when the region was at the meeting point of Ottoman, Russian and the Persian empires.
A legacy of soviet era
- Once Azerbaijan and Armenia became Soviet Republics in 1921, Moscow gave Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan but offered autonomy to the contested region.
- In the 1980s, when the Soviet power was receding, separatist currents picked up in Nagorno-Karabakh.
- In 1988, the national assembly voted to dissolve the region’s autonomous status and join Armenia.
- But Baku suppressed such calls, which led to a military conflict.
- When Armenia and Azerbaijan became independent countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the clashes led to an open war in which tens of thousands of people were killed.
- The war lasted till 1994 when both sides reached a ceasefire (they are yet to sign a peace treaty and the border is not clearly demarcated).
Issue over control
- By that time, Armenia had taken control of Nagorno-Karabakh and handed it to Armenian rebels. The rebels have declared independence, but have not won recognition from any country.
- The region is still treated as a part of Azerbaijan by the international community, and Baku wants to take it back.
What is the strategic significance of the region?
- The energy-rich Azerbaijan has built several gas and oil pipelines across the Caucasus (the region between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea) to Turkey and Europe.
- This includes the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline (with a capacity of transporting 1.2 billion barrels a day), the Western Route Export oil pipeline, the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline and the South Caucasus gas pipeline.
- Some of these pipelines pass close to the conflict zone (within 16 km of the border). In an open war between the two countries, the pipelines could be targeted, which would impact energy supplies.
What’s Turkey’s role?
- Turkey has historically supported Azerbaijan and has had a troublesome relationship with Armenia.
- In the 1990s, during the war, Turkey closed its border with Armenia and it has no diplomatic relations with the country.
- The main point of contention between the two was Ankara’s refusal to recognise the 1915 Armenian genocide in which the Ottomans killed some 1.5 million Armenians.
- On the other end, the Azeris and Turks share strong cultural and historical links. Azerbaijanis are a Turkic ethnic group and their language is from the Turkic family.
Where does Russia stand?
- Moscow sees the Caucasus and Central Asian region as its backyard. But the current clashes put President Vladimir Putin in a difficult spot.
- Russia enjoys good ties with both Azerbaijan and Armenia and supplies weapons to both.
- But Armenia is more dependent on Russia than the energy-rich, ambitious Azerbaijan. Russia also has a military base in Armenia.
- But Moscow, at least publicly, is trying to strike a balance between the two. Like in the 1990s, its best interest would be in mediating a ceasefire between the warring sides.
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Causacus region mapping
Mains level: Not Much
Turkish President Erdogan has asserted that his country will take whatever belongs to it in the Mediterranean, as well as Aegean and the Black Sea.
Try this PYQ:
Q.Turkey is located between
(a) The Black Sea and Caspian Sea
(b) The Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea
(c) Gulf of Suez and the Mediterranean Sea
(d) Gulf of Aqaba and the Dead Sea
Assertion over the Mediterranean
- Greece and Turkey have been locked in a dispute over control of eastern Mediterranean waters.
- They are at odds over the rights to potential hydrocarbon resources, based on conflicting claims over the extent of their continental shelves.
- The Turkish navy will hold the shooting exercises in the eastern Mediterranean off the coast of Iskenderun, northeast of Cyprus.
- Cyprus was divided in 1974 following a Turkish invasion triggered by a Greek-inspired coup.
- Turkey recognizes the Turkish-populated north of Cyprus as a separate state, which is not recognised by other countries.
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: West Bank and its location
Mains level: Israeli claims over West Bank and Gaza
Last week Mr Trump has announced that Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) had reached a peace agreement. Many countries, including the European powers and India, have welcomed it, while the Palestinian leadership, as well as Turkey and Iran, have lashed out at the UAE.
The strategic location of Gaza strip, West Bank, Dead Sea etc. creates a hotspot for a possible map based prelims question.
Consider this PYQ:
Q. The area is known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to: (CSP 2015)
a) Central Asia
b) Middle East
c) South-East Asia
d) Central Africa
The Israel-UAE Pact
- The UAE and Israel would establish formal diplomatic relations and in exchange, Israel would suspend its plans to annex parts of the occupied West Bank.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu had earlier vowed to annex the Jewish settlements in the West Bank.
- But now, as part of the agreement, Israel “will suspend declaring sovereignty over areas” of the West Bank and “focus its efforts on expanding ties with other countries in the Arab and Muslim world”.
A timeline of Israel-Arab Conflict
Arab-Israeli ties have historically been conflict-ridden.
- Arab countries, including Egypt, Transjordan, Syria and Iraq, fought their first war with Israel in 1948 after the formation of the state of Israel was announced.
- The war ended with Israel capturing more territories, including West Jerusalem than what the UN Partition Plan originally proposed for a Jewish state.
- After that, Israel and Arab states fought three more major wars — the 1956 Suez conflict, the 1967 Six-Day War and the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
- After the 1967 war in which Israel captured the Sinai Peninsula and Gaza Strip from Egypt, East Jerusalem and the West Bank from Jordan and the Golan Heights from Syria.
- Arab countries convened in Khartoum and declared their famous three “‘Nos’ — no peace with Israel, no talks with Israel and no recognition of Israel.
- But it did not last long. After the death of Egypt President Gamal Abdel Nasser, his successor Anwar Sadat started making plans to get Sinai back from Israel.
- His efforts, coupled with American pressure on Israel, led to the Camp David Accords of 1978 with Israel’s withdrawal.
Significance of the deal
- It’s a landmark agreement given that the UAE is only the third Arab country and the first in the Gulf region to establish diplomatic relations with Israel.
- In 1994, Jordan became the second Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel.
- The UAE-Israel agreement comes after 26 years. If more countries in the Gulf follow the UAE’s lead, it would open a new chapter in Arab-Israel ties.
Why did the UAE sign the agreement?
- The old enmity between Arab countries and Israel has dissipated.
- The Sunni Arab kingdoms in the Gulf region such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE had developed backroom contacts with Israel over the past several years.
- One of the major factors that brought them closer has been their shared antipathy towards Iran.
- Arab countries have signalled that they are ready to live with Israel’s occupation of Palestine.
What do Arab countries want from Israel?
- Arab countries expect a major change in the status quo on West Bank annexation which would put Israel under political and diplomatic pressure.
- The UAE-Israel agreement has averted that outcome.
- If a Democratic Party (Trump’s opposition and Obama’s allegiance) comes to power and restores the Iran deal, both the Israeli and the Arab blocs in West Asia would come under pressure to live with an empowered Iran.
- A formal agreement and enhanced security and economic ties make the Arab and Israeli sides better prepared to face such a situation.
- So there is a convergence of interests for the UAE, Israel and the U.S. to come together in the region.
Where does it leave the Palestinians?
- Unlike the past two Arab-Israeli peace agreements, Palestinians do not figure prominently in the current one.
- In the present UAE-Israel deal, Israel has not made any actual concession to the Palestinians.
- The Palestinians are understandably upset. They called the UAE’s decision “treason”.
Geopolitical implications of the deal
- The agreement could fast-track the changes that are already underway in the region.
- The Saudi bloc, consisting of Egypt, the UAE, Bahrain and others, see their interests being aligned with that of the U.S. and Israel and their support for Palestine, which Arab powers had historically upheld.
- Turkey and Iran now emerge as the strongest supporters of the Palestinians in the Muslim world.
- This tripolar contest is already at work in West Asia. The UAE-Israel thaw could sharpen it further.
Also read:
West Bank Annexation Plan
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: West Bank and its location
Mains level: Israeli claims over West Bank and Gaza
The United Arab Emirates and Israel have agreed to establish full diplomatic ties as part of a deal to halt the annexation of occupied land sought by the Palestinians for their future state.
What is the deal?
- The deal halts Israeli annexation plans, the Palestinians have repeatedly urged Arab governments not to normalize ties with Israel until a peace agreement establishing an independent Palestinian state is reached.
Significance
- The announcement makes the UAE the first Gulf Arab state to do so and only the third Arab nation to have active diplomatic ties to Israel.
- For Israel, the announcement comes after years of boasting by Israeli PM Netanyahu that his government enjoys closer ties to Arab nations than publicly acknowledged.
West Bank and its annexation plan
- The West Bank is located to the west of the Jordan River.
- It is a patch of land about one and a half times the size of Goa, was captured by Jordan after the 1948 Arab-Israeli War.
- Israel snatched it back during the Six-Day War of 1967 and has occupied it ever since.
- It is a landlocked territory, bordered by Jordan to the east and Israel to the south, west, and north.
- Following the Oslo Accords between the Israeli government and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) during the 1990s, part of the West Bank came under the control of the Palestinian Authority.
- With varying levels of autonomy, the Palestinian Authority controls close to 40 per cent of West Bank today, while the rest is controlled by Israel.
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: West Bank and its location
Mains level: Israeli claims over West Bank and Gaza
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that the Israeli leader’s plan to annex parts of the occupied West Bank would not start on the original target date as the British PM made an extraordinary appeal to Israel to call off the plan.
The strategic location of Gaza strip, West Bank, Dead Sea etc. creates a hotspot for a possible map based prelims question.
Consider this PYQ from 2015 CSP:
Q. The area known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to:
a) Central Asia
b) Middle East
c) South-East Asia
d) Central Africa
Must read:
[Burning Issue] West Asia Peace Plan
Where is West Bank Located?
- The West Bank is located to the west of the Jordan River.
- It is a patch of land about one and a half times the size of Goa, was captured by Jordan after the 1948 Arab-Israeli War.
- Israel snatched it back during the Six-Day War of 1967 and has occupied it ever since.
- It is a landlocked territory, bordered by Jordan to the east and Israel to the south, west, and north.
- Following the Oslo Accords between the Israeli government and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) during the 1990s, part of the West Bank came under the control of the Palestinian Authority.
- With varying levels of autonomy, the Palestinian Authority controls close to 40 per cent of West Bank today, while the rest is controlled by Israel.
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: West Bank and its location
Mains level: Unity Government
Israel’s Parliament swore in its new unity government led by PM Netanyahu and his former rival Benny Gantz, ending the longest political crisis in their nation’s history.
The strategic location of Gaza strip, West Bank, Dead Sea etc. creates a hotspot for a possible map based prelims question. Consider this PYQ from 2015 CSP:
Q. The area known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to:
a) Central Asia
b) Middle East
c) South-East Asia
d) Central Africa
What is a Unity Government?
- A national unity government, government of national unity (GNU), or national union government is a broad coalition government consisting of all parties (or all major parties) in the legislature.
- Such a coalition is usually formed during a time of war or another national emergency.
- A general coalition government is a form of government in which political parties cooperate, reducing the dominance of any one party within that “coalition”.
Practice question for mains:
Q. Discuss the role and significance of Leader of Opposition and the Opposition Party and their constructive criticism in a Parliamentary form of government.
What is the Israeli deal?
- Israel’s unity government starts work amid the coronavirus pandemic and after a political crisis that saw three inconclusive elections and left the country in political limbo for more than 500 days.
- The coalition government was agreed last month between veteran right-wing leader Netanyahu and the centrist Gantz, a former army chief.
- The incoming government has aimed to apply Israeli sovereignty over West Bank settlements.
- The govt. now aims to push on with controversial plans to annex large parts of the occupied West Bank.
Significance
- Netanyahu said that it’s time to apply the Israeli law and write another glorious chapter in the history of Zionism citing the issue of Jewish settlements in the occupied Palestinian territory.
- Such a move is seen likely to cause international uproar and inflame tensions in the West Bank.
- The region is home to nearly three million Palestinians and some 400,000 Israelis living in settlements considered illegal under international law.
Back2Basics
West Bank Annexation plans
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss plans to annex parts of the West Bank.
The strategic location of Gaza strip, West Bank, Dead Sea etc. creates a hotspot for a possible map based prelims question. Consider this PYQ from 2015 CSP:
Q. The area known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to:
a) Central Asia
b) Middle East
c) South-East Asia
d) Central Africa
Where is West Bank Located?
- The West Bank is located to the west of the Jordan River.
- It is a patch of land about one and a half times the size of Goa, was captured by Jordan after the 1948 Arab-Israeli War.
- Israel snatched it back during the Six-Day War of 1967 and has occupied it ever since.
- It is a landlocked territory, bordered by Jordan to the east and Israel to the south, west, and north.
- Following the Oslo Accords between the Israeli government and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) during the 1990s, part of the West Bank came under the control of the Palestinian Authority.
- With varying levels of autonomy, the Palestinian Authority controls close to 40 percent of West Bank today, while the rest is controlled by Israel.
Back2Basics: Gaza Strip
- The Gaza Strip is a small boot-shaped territory along the Mediterranean coast between Egypt and Israel.
- A couple of years later in 2007, Hamas, an anti-Israel military group, took over Gaza Strip. The militia group is often involved in violent clashes with the Israeli Defence Forces.
- While Palestine has staked claim to both territories — West Bank and Gaza Strip — Israel’s objective has been to keep expanding Jewish settlements in these regions.
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Oslo Peace Accord, West Bank
Mains level: Israeli claims over West Bank and Gaza
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss plans to annex parts of the West Bank.
The strategic location of Gaza strip, West Bank, Dead Sea etc. creates a hotspot for a possible map based prelims question. Consider this PYQ from 2015 CSP:
Q. The area known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to:
a) Central Asia
b) Middle East
c) South-East Asia
d) Central Africa
Where is West Bank Located?
- The West Bank is located to the west of the Jordan River.
- It is a patch of land about one and a half times the size of Goa, was captured by Jordan after the 1948 Arab-Israeli War.
- Israel snatched it back during the Six-Day War of 1967 and has occupied it ever since.
- It is a landlocked territory, bordered by Jordan to the east and Israel to the south, west, and north.
- Following the Oslo Accords between the Israeli government and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) during the 1990s, part of the West Bank came under the control of the Palestinian Authority.
- With varying levels of autonomy, the Palestinian Authority controls close to 40 percent of West Bank today, while the rest is controlled by Israel.
Back2Basics: Gaza Strip
- The Gaza Strip is a small boot-shaped territory along the Mediterranean coast between Egypt and Israel.
- A couple of years later in 2007, Hamas, an anti-Israel military group, took over Gaza Strip. The militia group is often involved in violent clashes with the Israeli Defence Forces.
- While Palestine has staked claim to both territories — West Bank and Gaza Strip — Israel’s objective has been to keep expanding Jewish settlements in these regions.
For complete details on Israel-Palestine conflict, kindly refer:
[Burning Issue] West Asia Peace Plan
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Location of Idlib Province
Mains level: Usual turmoil in Syria
The nine-year-old war in Syria is currently raging in the northwestern province of Idlib, with rapidly escalating tensions between government forces of President Bashar al-Assad and the Turkish military.
Background
- President’s Assad’s forces are backed by Russia, who are clashing with thousands of Turkish troops south of its border with Syria.
- Turkey has closed the border and is trying to seal itself from waves of displaced refugees as Assad presses forth with a brutal campaign to take back Idlib.
Why is Idlib important?
- Assad has been pushing to recapture Idlib, which, along with parts of neighbouring Hama, Latakia and Aleppo, are the last remaining strongholds of the rebel opposition and other groups that have been attempting to overthrow Assad since 2011.
- At one point, the opposition held large parts of Syria under its control, but that changed after Assad, with Russian military support, slowly regained control over most of the country.
- In 2015, Idlib province was overtaken by opposition forces.
- Now, Syrian government forces are attempting to capture the strategic M4 and M5 national highways that connect Idlib, Aleppo and Damascus, the capital of the country.
- Idlib skirts the two national highways and lies between Aleppo in the north and Damascus in the south.
- It’s proximity to the Turkish border makes Idlib strategically important to the Syrian government.
Who controls Idlib now?
- Since the province fell to opposition forces, there is no one group that controls Idlib, but rather, several separate factions.
- International watchdogs say that the dominant faction in Idlib is the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a UN-designated terrorist organization set up in 2017, with links to al-Qaeda.
- Also operating in Idlib is the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army, an armed opposition group. Included in the mix are the remnants of the Islamic State.
- Watch groups say that other factions in Idlib strongly oppose the presence of IS fighters in the province.
Why is Idlib important for Turkey?
- Idlib’s proximity to the Turkish border makes it not only important for the Syrian government, but also a cause of concern for Turkey.
- Since the war started in Syria, thousands of displaced Syrians have sought refuge in Turkey over the years.
- According to the latest known figures, Turkey presently hosts some 3.6 million refugees and is feeling the socio-economic and political strain of their presence in the country.
- More conflict in Idlib would only serve to displace more people, pushing them towards the Turkish border.
- Turkey has been witnessing a surge in hostility among its citizens towards refugees and a fresh wave of refugees will only exacerbate the situation.
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: West Asia Peace Plan
Mains level: Palestine & Israel conflicts
With West Asia Peace plan US plans to revive the stalled two-state talks between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, who had earlier spoken against the two-state solution, has accepted the Trump plan.
West Asia Peace Plan
The West Asia peace plan unveiled by U.S. President Trump seeks to give the Israelis what they have long wanted — an expansive state with Jerusalem as its “undivided capital” and tight security control over a future Palestinian state.
What’s the plan about?
- The Trump plan seeks to address most of the contentious issues in the conflict such as the border of Israel, status of Palestinian refugees, Jewish settlements on the West Bank, land swap between Israel and Palestine, Israel’s security concerns and the status of the city of Jerusalem.
- However US have proposed to almost all of these issues favour the Israeli positions.
- For example, Israel would be allowed to annex the Jewish settlements on the West Bank as well as the Jordan Valley.
- The Palestinian refugees, who were forced out from their homes during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war that followed the declaration of the state of Israel in the historic Palestine, would not be allowed to return.
- They could move to the future Palestinian state, be integrated into the host countries or settled in other regional countries.
Jerusalem: The undivided Capital
- Jerusalem, perhaps the most contentious issue, would be “the undivided capital” of Israel, with Palestine gaining its capital in the east of the city — beyond the security border Israel has already built.
- In return, Israel would freeze further settlement activities on the West Bank for four years — the time for negotiations.
Land Swap
- According to the Oslo Accords, the West Bank was divided into three areas and only one of them is under the direct control of the Palestinian Authority.
- The plan proposes some land swap for the Israeli annexation of the West Bank Jewish settlements.
- It seeks to enlarge Gaza and connect the strip with the West Bank through a tunnel.
- The Arab towns in the southeast of Israel, which are close to Gaza, could become part of a future Palestinian state.
Curb on Hamas
- During this period, the Palestinian Authority should dismiss its current complaints at the International Criminal Court against Israel and refrain itself from taking further actions.
- It should also crack down on “terrorist” groups such as Hamas and the Islamic Jihad.
Investment Plans
- US has also proposed $50 billion in investment over 10 years should Palestine accept the proposals.
- In the final settlement, Palestine would get control over more land than what it currently controls.
Implications for Palestine
- The Palestine position is backed by most of the world powers is the formation of an independent, sovereign Palestinian state based on the 1967 border.
- It means the whole of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital including the Old City that houses Haram esh-Sharif, also known as Temple Mount, a holy site for both Muslims and Jews.
- Issues like the right of return of the Palestinian refugees are to be settled in final negotiations.
- But US has effectively rejected the Palestinian claims outright and asked them to make more compromises.
- He seeks to give Jerusalem and about 30% of the West Bank to the Israelis and has denied the right of return of the Palestinian refugees.
- And for this, the Palestinians should take action against militant groups, stop supporting Palestinian families of those jailed or killed by Israel and refrain itself from questioning the occupation in international fora.
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Not much.
Mains level: Paper2 – International relations
Context
Targeted killing of powerful Iranian Major-General could have done more bad than good for the U.S.
Series of events after the assassination
- The Iraqi parliament voted to expel the U.S. troops stationed in Iraq and deny them access to its airspace, land or water.
- Pro-Iranian groups could attack across the region where thousands of U.S. troops and official personnel are stationed.
- Soleimani’s assassination has awakened the deep strain of Iranian patriotism.
- And Iran is not alone.
- In Beirut, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called Soleimani the “glue that held the Resistance Axis together”.
- The U.S threat of striking “52 Iranian sites” did not win the U.S. any support on the international stage.
- Even the Europeans, otherwise steadfast with the U.S. in these sorts of adventures, hesitated.
- Arab League’s Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit expressed concern over the situation and asked for calm.
- This is the same man who had, only a few weeks ago, accused Iran of sowing chaos in the region.
- It is likely that China and Russia will table a resolution at the UN that calls for calm as well as criticises the U.S.
- This will certainly be vetoed by the U.S.
Desperate and irrational policy
- Till now the U.S. has not been able to extricate itself from its illegal war against Iraq.
- That war provided a massive advantage to Iran not only in Iraq but also across the region.
- This is what terrified two of the U.S.’s allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, both of whom pressured Washington to increase its threats against Iran.
- S. create the conditions for the rise of the worst kind of violence in Iraq, and later Syria
- It also weakened the strategic position of its allies.
- No attempt by the U.S. to regain its authority has worked.
- The U.S. policy against Iran and Iraq appear desperate and irrational.
Conclusion
- The U.S recklessness has isolated it further and deepened anxieties amongst its increasingly isolated regional allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:
Prelims level: Nothing much.
Mains level: Paper 2- International relations
Context
The recent targeted killing of Commander of Quds Forces of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) by the US raised the tension in the region to a new high level. The imminent blowback from Iran could have several consequences for the rest of the world including India.
Different from past killings
- Though the U.S. has carried out many such targeted killings in the past but this case bears two important differences to the past killings.
- Unlike Osama bin Laden or Abu Bakr, Gen. Soleimani was a state actor.
- Unlike the above mentioned two, he was not past his prime.
Roles played by Gen. Soleimani
- He was the founder-commander of Iran’s Quds Force-formed for extra-territorial operations.
- He enhanced Iran’s influence in the Arab countries by leveraging the disarray in the region.
- Arab countries with a significant Shia population such as Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen came under Iranian influence.
What could be the fallouts
- Tit-for-tat between Iran and the U.S. could easily go out of hand and precipitate into a major confrontation.
- Both countries have domestic compulsions- there are elections due in both countries.
- These compulsions limit options for both countries to low-intensity skirmishes.
- The fact that the killing was carried on the Iraqi soil also assumes significance.
- The incident could increase the problems in Iraq which is rocked by three months of youth protests against undue foreign interference by both Iran and the U.S.
- The event is also likely to re-polarise the Iraqi society along sectarian lines.
- In the worst-case scenario Iraq could turn into the new Syria.
Potential fallout for India
- Global oil prices have already seen a 4% rise in within hours of the incident.
- India has already faced difficulty in maintaining relations with both countries because of the U.S.-Iran cold war.
- While we want to be on the right side of the U.S., our ties with Iran apart from being civilisational have their own geostrategic logic.
- With conflict turning hot, its adverse impact on India could magnify.
- High oil prices will definitely increase our import bill and increase difficulties in supplies.
- Safety of an estimated 8 million expatriates in the Gulf may be affected.
- Iran could influence the U.S.-Taliban peace process in Afghanistan which in turn increases India’s woes.
- After Iran, India has a large number of Shia population and some of them could be radicalised due to the event.
Conclusion
The event, if turn into a wider conflict between the two countries, could have many consequences for India from soaring oil prices and maintaining the balance between the two countries to the safety of expatriates in the Gulf.
